Ohio State Continues To Lose

Michigan 73, #15 Ohio State 64
Rivalry games like this are always close, and Ohio State kept things so close that they actually had a lead with under seven minutes left in the game, but in the end it was just another loss. Michigan was able to turn to Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims in the final minutes, and the Buckeyes didn't have that type of player. The Buckeyes are now 3-3 without Evan Turner, but those three wins came to Presbyterian, Delaware State and Cleveland State. They get a little bit of a breather next with a home game against Indiana, but it's then off to Minnesota and Purdue, followed by a home game against a Wisconsin team that just whacked them by 22 points at the Kohl Center. They are currently 0-2 in the Big Ten, and if they fall to 1-5 it's going to be increasingly difficult for this team to make the NCAA Tournament at all, even if Evan Turner does return by the first week of February. They probably have to get to 9-9 in the Big Ten just to avoid the NIT, and that won't be trivial if they're too far below .500 when Turner returns. As for Michigan, this was a near must-win when you consider that they won't get many juicier opportunities than this for a quality win. Still, unless they beat UConn on January 17th they will end up 6-6 in out-of-conference games, meaning that they've got to go at least 10-8 in the Big Ten to have a shot at an at-large bid entering the Big Ten tournament, and probably have to go 11-7. This win gets them to 1-1 with several more easy games (at Penn State, vs Northwestern, vs Indiana) before the schedule gets tougher. Their following Big Ten games are at Wisconsin, at Purdue, and at home against Michigan State. So if they don't run off a few straight wins here then their at-large shots really get very long.

Virginia Tech 103, Seton Hall 94, OT
This was a bizarre game for a number of reasons. The fact that they played in an empty Cancun gym made this feel like a scrimmage, and Virginia Tech's Dorendo Hudson went 20-for-21 at the free throw line to blow away his career high in points scored by 17. As a team, Virginia Tech was a mind-boggling 36-for-43 from the line. Seton Hall wasn't particularly good in any aspect of this game, but their guard play was particularly poor. Besides all of the free throws that they gave up, they forced only two steals and had all of ten assists on 36 made baskets. It's disappointing when you consider how talented their backcourt is, with Jeremy Hazell, Eugene Harvey and Keon Lawrence in the starting lineup, and Jordan Theodore off the bench. This also pushes Seton Hall just a little bit further away from an at-large bid. They finish 9-2 against an out-of-conference schedule rated 336th by Pomeroy, with no bad losses but with Cornell being their only quality win. They are also off to an 0-2 start in the Big East with a pretty brutal upcoming schedule (at UConn, vs Cincy, at Georgetown). They will have to finish at least 9-9 in the Big East to get an at-large bid. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is sneaking up on people with a 12-1 record that features wins over Penn State, Georgia and Seton Hall, and with zero bad losses. They begin ACC play Sunday evening at a reeling North Carolina team.

Northern Iowa 84, Missouri State 76
Every aspect of Northern Iowa's offense was firing on all cylinders here. All of their key players, other than Kwadzo Ahelegbe, had good scoring afternoons, and the team as a whole hit 53% from the field (including 9-for-17 behind the arc) and 91% from the line. They also outrebounded Missouri State, and were playing at home. Which begs the question: how was this game so close? Their defense was poor, and it does have flaws in general. Pomeroy rates their total defensive efficiency 73rd, but that's mostly due to good rebounding and a tendency not to foul. They give up a lot of three-pointers (including 8-for-18 in this game) and never get any blocks. They are vulnerable to referees that call a lot of fouls, and to teams that have strong inside presences. They are still the favorites to win the Missouri Valley, in my opinion, but I'm not sure if they have the ability to earn an at-large bid should they fall during Arch Madness. They will probably have to get to 13-5 in conference play to earn that at-large bid. As for Missouri State, they proved with this close road loss that they are a legitimate contender in the Missouri Valley. They went 10-1 out-of-conference with a win over Tulsa and a loss at Arkansas, and are now 2-1 in Missouri Valley play with a quality win already over Illinois State. Pomeroy rates them the second best team in the Missouri Valley and Sagarin has them third, but both think they're slightly outside the Top 60 teams in the country. So they're good enough to compete for the automatic bid in March, but need to improve their play quite a bit to earn an at-large.