San Diego State With An Impressive Win At Wyoming

#12 San Diego State 52, Wyoming 42
Had Wyoming won this game, the media would have told us this was a shocking "upset". Of course, in reality it was Wyoming that was favored by a couple of points in Vegas, and Wyoming that was picked as the favorite by both Sagarin and Pomeroy. And that's before it's pointed out that San Diego State was coming off of two gigantic wins and was overdue for a reality check, and that San Diego State had major travel problems getting to Wyoming, ending up with a 17 hour delay and then a very turbulent flight that got them to Wyoming on the afternoon of the game. I thought Wyoming was an easy pick here, and was shocked at the way San Diego State played as well as they did, particularly in the first half.

And to be fair, Wyoming didn't actually play badly here. They had 8 more offensive rebounds, 4 fewer turnovers and 4 more blocks. The problem was that they had an atrocious 35.7 eFG%, their worst shooting of the season. But it wasn't all shooting. San Diego State's athletic perimeter players just slashed past the Wyoming defense at will. Wyoming is forcing turnovers on 26.7% on defensive possessions in Mountain West play (that's best in the conference) and they continued that here (a 32.8% rate), but if they didn't get a turnover they generally gave up an easy shot. Here's a stat that stands out to me: Wyoming is 37th in the nation with a 44.7 eFG% against, but there's a dichotomy. The three best teams they've played (New Mexico, Colorado State and Denver) have all had an eFG% over 55% Every other team they've played has had an eFG% under 55%. Makes you wonder whether quality perimeter scorers are going to give them trouble all season long.

San Diego State surely is far overdue for a "reality check" loss. They've played great the past couple of weeks, but reality has to catch up to them eventually. They'll play at Colorado State on Saturday, and I'd make the Rams the favorite in that one. But even if they do lose, SDSU will still be in a far better position than they were a couple of weeks ago. Their Pomeroy rating has jumped from 71st to 44th in about two weeks and they now have six quality wins (New Mexico, UNLV, California, Arizona, Wyoming and Long Beach State) and zero bad losses. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS right now is actually 6th in the nation. UNLV is still the favorite in the Mountain West in my opinion, but San Diego State is very much in play for a 4-6 seed on Selection Sunday.

Wyoming is still a very nice 16-4 after this loss, but it's come against a very soft schedule. Their problems against quality teams mean that the only quality win that they have came against Colorado State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 72nd and their RPI is 90th. If the season ended now they wouldn't even be in the bubble discussion. At 2-2 in Mountain West play, I think they've got to get to at least 8-6, and will need at least two wins over the conference's Big Three (including any games played in the conference tournament) to have a real shot on Selection Sunday. Though it's been years since Wyoming has been even close to an at-large bid (the 2002-03 season... maybe longer?), so the fact that we even have to discuss this tells you how good this season has been for them. Their next game will be Saturday at Boise State.

#4 Syracuse 60, Cincinnati 53
Cincinnati had an opportunity here to push Syracuse to a second straight loss, but they were just too inconsistent on offense. Every once in a while Cashmere Wright or Sean Kilpatrick would break down the zone and make things look easy, but more often than not the team would have to settle for long jumpers. The long shots led to long rebounds (13 offensive boards), but 34.4% field goal shooting isn't going to cut it against any quality opponent. Fab Melo was out again with his academic issues, but Jim Boeheim got a nice performance from Rakeem Christmas (9 rebounds, 3 blocks), and by James Southerland off the bench (7 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks). Fab Melo is an excellent defender, but it's clear that they aren't going to drop off a cliff without him like they did two years ago when Arinze Onuaku went down. They have far more front court depth now than they did then.

This was a missed opportunity for Cincinnati. They are now 15-6 overall and 5-3 in the Big East with wins over Georgetown and UConn along with bad losses to Presbyterian and St. John's. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 57th. If the season ended now they'd be right on the Tournament bubble. In my opinion, Cincy needs to get to 10-8 in Big East play and then will need a win in the Big East tournament to have a good chance of an at-large bid on Selection Sunday. The good news is that their upcoming schedule is pretty soft. Their next three games will be against Rutgers, DePaul and St. John's. The Rutgers game is up first, on Saturday.

Syracuse moves to 8-1 in Big East play with this win, a full game clear in the loss column in the conference standings. They'll play West Virginia on Saturday, but the most important game they have coming up will be February 8th against Georgetown. A win there will go a long way toward locking up the Big East regular season title.

#22 Michigan 66, Purdue 64
Mackey Arena has typically been a house of horrors for opposing Big Ten teams, but Purdue has been surprisingly vulnerable there this season. Tim Hardaway, Jr, who's been a streaky shooter all season, got hot here with 19 points on 8-for-15 shooting. Trey Burke did a good job being more of a facilitator for most of the game (6 assists) before attacking the rim to score two huge baskets late in the game. Purdue did have a chance in the final minutes, but they shot 0-for-6 from the field in the final 3:30. It was a frustrating loss for them to be sure.

Purdue has lost four of six to fall to 4-4 in Big Ten play with wins over Temple, Minnesota, Illinois and Miami (Fl), along with bad losses to Butler and Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has fallen to 39th. If the season ended now they'd be right on the Tournament bubble. If they can go 5-5 the rest of the way to get to 9-9 then they'll probably be in a good position for an at-large bid. They have an important game coming up on Saturday at a Northwestern team that also is desperate for a big win. After that they'll have a week off before a home game against Indiana.

At 6-2, Michigan is still leading the Big Ten. That said, their +0.07 PPP scoring differential in conference play is only in a tie for third place in the Big Ten, so they're unlikely to stay at the top of the standings for long. In fact, I think their lead will end on Sunday after they play at Ohio State. A week after that they'll have to face a revenge game at Michigan State (the Spartans lost by one point in Ann Arbor last week).