Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Bubble Watch Heading Into March 11th

It was a relatively quiet night for the bubble. Three more auto bids were handed out: Delaware (Colonial), Manhattan (MAAC) and Wofford (Southern). We now have 31 locks, with 37 spots to fill.

On Tuesday night we have four more conferences handing out automatic bids, which means that we will pass an important milestone: more than half of the 68 NCAA Tournament slots will be locked up. The most interesting of those four title games, of course, is BYU vs Gonzaga in the WCC. The Zags looks safe for the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens, but BYU is still right on the bubble, so other bubble teams will certainly be rooting for Gonzaga.

Teams that move up a group are colored green while teams that drop a group are colored red. Here is how the bubble stands as we head into March 11th:

Tournament locks (31 teams):
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Mercer, Saint Louis, Creighton, Villanova, Coastal Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Delaware, Harvard, Manhattan, Wichita State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Eastern Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, Kentucky, Wofford

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (24, of which 15 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
AAC, America East, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, Horizon, MAC, MEAC, MWC, NEC, Pac-12, Patriot, SEC, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WCC, WAC

Teams that look safe (9):
Memphis, SMU, UMass, VCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Kansas State, Oregon, Gonzaga

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (6):
Pittsburgh, George Washington, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Colorado

The Bubble (14 teams for 9 bids):
Florida State,  Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Minnesota, Nebraska, Toledo, California, Stanford, Tennessee, BYU

Best of the rest (12):
Clemson, Marquette, Indiana, West Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, North Dakota State, Utah, Arkansas, Georgia

Long shots (12):
Maryland, NC State, Illinois, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Ohio, Boise State, UNLV, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, Saint Mary's


ervinsm said...

How does Stainbrook's injury affect Xavier's tournament chances and seed?

Jeff said...

Only in so far as it impacts their ability to beat Marquette, which is somewhat but not huge. The Selection Committee is not going to kick Xavier out of the Tournament if they have a Tourney resume just because Stainbrook is hurt.