Thursday, March 06, 2014

W-1.5 BP68

The battle for the final 1 seed continues to be extremely complicated, and it's mixed up with the battle for the 2-4 seeds, which are all very evenly matched.

Obviously Duke drops from the 1 seed line with their loss, and the last bracketologists with Syracuse as a 1 seed had to drop them as well, but so much will come down to the conference tournaments. Teams like Villanova, Michigan and Wisconsin will all have real shots at a 1 seed if they can win their conference tournament, but also could easily be a 3 seed, or perhaps even a 4 seed, if they go down early. Kansas is my last 1 seed now, but if they lose again then they're probably out of the 1 seed competition as well.

The bubble continues to get stronger, and is perhaps the strongest I've ever seen it one and a half weeks out. We're not even getting half-hearted "this is the weakest bubble I've ever seen" talk from the media. Teams like Baylor, Oregon and Providence got key wins in the last few days. And so teams like Georgetown and Minnesota continue to be stuck on the outside looking in, though obviously they still will get their chances over the next week and a half to get back into the Field of 68.

There were no changes to the Field of 68 this week, in fact. Four teams were eliminated however: Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue and Texas A&M. That leaves 29 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid 

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2. Michigan
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Virginia

3. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
3. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
3. Wisconsin
3. Villanova

4. North Carolina
4. Syracuse
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. Oklahoma

5. Cincinnati
5. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. New Mexico
5. Texas

6. Iowa State
6. UCLA
6. UConn
6. SMU

7. Ohio State
7. UMass
7. Kentucky
7. Iowa

8. VCU
8. George Washington
8. Memphis
8. GONZAGA (WCC)

9. Kansas State
9. Arizona State
9. Oregon
9. Pittsburgh

10. Colorado
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Baylor
10. Saint Joseph's

11. Oklahoma State
11. Xavier
11. BYU
11. Providence

12. Stanford
12. Tennessee
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. California
12. St. John's
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)

14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Florida State, Dayton, Georgetown, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Marquette, Southern Miss, Missouri

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, West Virginia, UTEP, Georgia, LSU, Saint Mary's

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State, Richmond, Illinois, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, Washington, Mississippi, Vanderbilt

7 comments:

Chris said...

If Dayton makes a run in the A-10 tourney, the selection committee would have to assumingly drop GW from the bracket, right? Any scenario that you can see that they will get 6 in.

Jeff said...

In general the Selection Committee doesn't work that way. If Dayton gets a big win over George Washington in the A-10 tournament then maybe, but they aren't going to say "we need 6 A-10 teams, so if we bring Dayton in then somebody else has to come out".

Daniel Tappa said...

Duke as a 2 seed over Wisconsin? You are still out of your mind. What more does Wisconsin have to do? You keep insinuating some late season losses are going to put Wisconsin in a lower than expected seed slot, which has yet to happen.

Luke Winn over at SI.com summed up Wisconsin pretty nicely today in his weekly power rankings:

"Even though the Badgers can't win the Big Ten regular-season title (congrats on that, Michigan), their resume of wins may allow them to sneak up and grab a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday. Consider that Wisconsin has beaten:

• The SEC champ and No. 1-ranked team (Florida)
• The ACC champ on the road (Virginia)
• The Big Ten champ on the road (Michigan)
• The Horizon League champ on the road (Green Bay)
• The likely Atlantic 10 champ on a neutral court (St. Louis)
• Michigan State, Iowa twice and St. John's

That list is nuts. I don't care if Kansas has more top-25 and top-50 RPI wins: UW has the superior resume."


Here's what's interesting: I don't think Wisconsin is going to get past the sweet 16 no matter what their seed is unless they get very favorable match-ups, but based on their entire body of work, they absolutely deserve to be on one of the top 2 lines come Selection Sunday (unless they lose 2 games in a row to finish season).


Jeff said...

I've explained this to you before, Daniel. This is a projection. I'm assuming Wisconsin loses in the Big Ten tourney semis while Duke wins the ACC tourney. If that happens, it's very likely that Duke will be seeded higher.

Daniel Tappa said...

Using that logic, that means Virginia can't win the ACC conference tournament, yet they are still projected ahead of Wisconsin. If Wisconsin & Virginia both lose in their semifinal or final game, how in the world does Virginia get a higher seed than Wisconsin?

RPI:
Wisconsin: 5
Virginia: 8

SOS:
Wisconsin: 4
Virginia: 24

NCSOS:
Wisconsin: 8
Virginia: 88

vs RPI top 25:
Wisconsin: 5-1
Virginia 2-3

Road:
Wisconsin 9-2 (wins @ Michigan, @ Virginia, @ Green Bay, @ Iowa)
Virginia: 9-3 (best win @ mediocre Pittsburgh)

Head to Head (@ Virginia)
Wisconsin - 1
Virginia - 0

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400502717


Good luck justifying that.

Anonymous said...

Daniel,

Let it go. You are going to have a stroke over this and it is not worth it. You have your opinion, Jff has his. They are different. That is all. It will all play out in time and this discussion won't matter one bit once the committee is done.

Anonymous said...

Daniel,

Jeff's got a formula and it works for him. ACC is strong and deep. Virginia is ACC champ they have to be at least a 2. Syracuse started strong and has many big wins. Duke has played well in conference. If Wisconsin was in tough ACC they would have more losses.

Steven