Sunday, March 09, 2014

W-1 BP68

At this point I think we basically have to throw our hands up on that fourth 1 seed. We know that Florida, Wichita State and Arizona control their own destiny for 1 seeds, but the fourth 1 seed is a mess. The good news is that most of this will come out in the wash of the conference tournaments. Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Villanova are all pretty much going to eliminate themselves if they lose in their conference tournaments. So things will clear up in a big way, though don't be surprised if two or three teams have very compelling cases for that last 1 seed on Selection Sunday.

There is one change to the at-large bids this week, which is Dayton moving in for Providence. You can make a decent case for Providence over Dayton at the moment, but the problem for Providence is that they open the Big East tournament against the home team Johnnies, and I think they lose it. If they do win that game, that could be enough to move them right back into the bracket.

Three auto bids changed in this bracket. First, Eastern Kentucky won the Ohio Valley after upsetting Murray State and Belmont on consecutive nights. Belmont had been the favorite. In the Horizon League, Green Bay was knocked out, and so Wright State is the new favorite. It's a shame that Green Bay will almost certainly miss the NCAA Tournament, because they'll deserve to be there. By Sagarin PURE_ELO they'll likely end up with one of the two or three best resumes left out of the Tournament. Meanwhile, the Big South has always been a wildly wide-open tournament. With VMI going down, the new favorite (in my opinion) is Winthrop.

Three teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Richmond, Vanderbilt and Washington. That leaves 27 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid. At least half of those will be eliminated over the next week.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. Michigan
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2. Virginia

3. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
3. Wisconsin
3. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
3. Villanova

4. North Carolina
4. Syracuse
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. Oklahoma

5. Cincinnati
5. New Mexico
5. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Iowa State

6. UConn
6. Texas
6. UMass
6. UCLA

7. Ohio State
7. SMU
7. Kentucky
7. VCU

8. George Washington
8. Memphis
8. Oregon
8. GONZAGA (WCC)

9. Kansas State
9. Baylor
9. Pittsburgh
9. Iowa

10. Arizona State
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Saint Joseph's
10. Colorado

11. Oklahoma State
11. Xavier
11. BYU
11. Tennessee

12. Stanford
12. California
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. St. John's
12. Dayton
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)
13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)

14. IONA (MAAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC)

16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Georgetown, Providence, Minnesota, Nebraska

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Clemson, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Utah, Arkansas

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, Marquette, West Virginia, UTEP, Georgia, Missouri, Saint Mary's

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State, Illinois, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, LSU, Mississippi

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

you think that if nova loses one game they drop to the last three seed? 2-seed is the worst they'll do. Don't be biased and look at the ratings.

Daniel Tappa said...

Disregard his Nova and Wisconsin projections, they don't really make sense and haven't for weeks. They are both 2 seeds at the lowest, which everyone else seems to understand except for Jeff.

Anonymous said...

Nebraska should probably get in after that win, that was an impressive atmosphere at home vs Wisconsin. If they get in, they could win a few games. That being said, Wisconsin was already locked into 2nd place in the Big 10 and had much less to play for/get up for tonight, and that was displayed in the intensity difference between teams.

Wisconsin probably took themselves out of 1 seed consideration with that loss though, will likely be a 2..maybe a 3 if they lose to Minnesota/Penn State on Friday.

Best time of the year for hoops junkies starts now. Big 10 and Big 12 tournaments are going to be really fun to watch. Both leagues only have 1 legitimately bad team (Northwestern & TCU respectively).

Daniel Tappa said...

I agree. Clearly, I'm a Wisconsin homer but I don't think Wisconsin was fully invested in that game...just like Virginia earlier today. It's tough for non-bubble teams to get up for final regular season games that are mostly meaningless before the conference and NCAA tourney. Wisconsin probably still gets a 2 seed in my estimation and will likely lose in the sweet 16 or elite 8 because their point guard (Jackson) is really inconsistent. Nebraska fan-base seems to be very excited about their young team, crowd was really really loud, probably one of the loudest venues I've heard this entire year. Their future is bright.

DMoore said...

I think the 2-4 seedings are very up in the air right now. Absolutely no one beyond the 3 locked in 1 seeds is strengthening their case at this point. Sure, Villanova is the most likely to be the last 1 seed, but that has as much to do with their competition damaging themselves.

Wisconsin -- Will likely have to beat Minnesota, Michigan State, and Michigan to be considered.

Kansas -- Already has as many losses as any team ever given a 1 seed, and will likely have to beat Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and either Oklahoma/Texas/Baylor.

Michigan -- Already has as many losses as any team ever given a 1 seed, but does have a Much easier road to winning the conference tourney.

Villanova -- If they win out, no one else can overtake them, but at this point you have to wonder if Creighton is just a really bad matchup for them.

Virginia -- Probably is the best team in the ACC (or at least the most consistent), but weak start to the season and a limited number of victories over strong teams will prevent them from being considered.

You have to wonder if the committee will make up for the weak last 1 seed by giving them a 2 and 3 seed that might be favored against them.

Jeff said...

I totally agree. That's what I've been saying about the 2-4 seeds for a while now, that all the teams are so close that it's just going to come down to who plays better in their conference tournament.

Although recent history has said that the Selection Committee likes to give the toughest 2 and 3 seeds to the overall #1 seed, so...

Anonymous said...

You must be predicting that Villanova will lose to the Seton Hall/Butler winner in the Big East Quarterfinals in order to fall to the last 3-seed.

Anonymous said...

I know projecting is what you do so it makes sense that you care about who the final 1 seed is, but I find it interesting how many people care who it is when it doesn't really matter. It's probably because it's generated by ESPN as a talking point, but being a 1 seed or a 2 seed doesn't really change the chances of a team winning it all, but regional strength does.

Anonymous said...

With the discouraging news regarding Embiid, does Kansas drop to a 3 seed or lower if they lose in the quarters or semis of the Big 12 tourney?

I think they need to prove they can win without him by winning big 12 tourney, or at least reaching finals, otherwise the committee will likely downgrade their seed. They are 1-1 this season without him (win vs TCU doesn't really count because they are terrible).

Jeff said...

I doubt it. The reason everybody cites the Kenyon Martin case instead of a more recent one is because it's so rare. I can only think of two or three times in the last 20 years that a team actually had their seed changed due to the status of an injured player.

Anonymous said...

We will see. Embiid is a game changer, if it's disclosed that he wont play again before selection sunday, I think Kansas should be downgraded because they are a different team. The uncertainty surrounding his return (and I think Kansas/Self will keep it this way) will make it more difficult for the committee to downgrade their seed.