Wednesday, March 05, 2014

Bubble Watch Heading Into March 5th

While the Syracuse lose was the big story Tuesday night, it obviously didn't have any impact on the bubble. The biggest Bubble Battle was the crazy Providence/Marquette game. With the loss, Marquette drops off the bubble for now. With Baylor moving off the bubble in the other direction with a win over Iowa State, the bubble is now 15 teams for 9 spots.

Meanwhile, as ugly as Kentucky's win over Alabama was, it's sufficient to lock them into the NCAA Tournament for good. They are the 17th team to lock in a bid.

Teams that move up a group are colored green while teams that drop a group are colored red. Here is how the bubble stands as we head into March 5th:

Tournament locks (17 teams):
Cincinnati,  Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kansas, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (32, of which 24 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
AAC, America East, ACC, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, Colonial, CUSA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot, SEC, SoCon, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WCC, WAC

Teams that look safe (14):
UConn, Louisville, Memphis, SMU, UMass, Saint Louis, VCU, Iowa, Ohio State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, UCLA

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (9):
Pittsburgh, George Washington, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Harvard, Arizona State, Oregon, Gonzaga

The Bubble (15 teams for 9 bids):
Clemson, Florida State,  Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Minnesota, Southern Miss, Toledo, California, Colorado, Stanford, Arkansas, Tennessee, BYU

Best of the rest (14):
Dayton, Marquette, Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, North Dakota State, Utah, Missouri, Boise State, Georgia, LSU

Long shots (15):
Maryland, UTEP, UNLV, Saint Mary's, NC State, Richmond, Illinois, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana State, Oregon State, Washington, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

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