Thursday, March 13, 2014

D-3 BP68

It's just three days until Selection Sunday. And keep an eye on this page because I will have another bracket projection out after Friday night's games.

There wasn't much  movement in this bracket aside from the one-bid league teams. There just were very few games involving bubble teams the last four days. That said, probably the biggest change is BYU dropping down to the last at-large team. I've already said that I think it's most likely that they'll fall out of the Tournament, but at this point it's hard to know which team is going to steal a bid or go on a run to their conference tourney title game. History says that mid-major teams like BYU tend to fall out of the bracket, but at this point they're still in the Field of 68.

The final 1 seed remains difficult to figure out. I think we all agree that Villanova has the inside track for it, but I'm projecting Villanova to lose to Creighton, and that should knock them off the 1 line. But the reality is that the 1 seed picture is going to clear itself up. It's going to go to a team that wins its conference tournament, so as teams lose games they will drop out of contention.

Only two teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Indiana State and St. Mary's. That leaves 25 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid. Obviously a whole bunch of those teams will be eliminated over the next two days, when all the bubble teams will be trying to get that one big win or to avoid that one bad loss.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. Michigan
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)

3. Villanova
3. Virginia
3. Wisconsin
3. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

4. North Carolina
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. Syracuse
4. Oklahoma

5. Cincinnati
5. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. New Mexico
5. Iowa State

6. UConn
6. Texas
6. Ohio State
6. UCLA

7. UMass
7. SMU
7. Kentucky
7. VCU

8. George Washington
8. Memphis
8. Oregon
8. GONZAGA (WCC)

9. Kansas State
9. Baylor
9. Pittsburgh
9. Iowa

10. Arizona State
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Saint Joseph's
10. Colorado

11. Oklahoma State
11. Xavier
11. Tennessee
11. Stanford

12. California
12. St. John's
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. Dayton
12. BYU
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)
13. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

14. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. MILWAUKEE (HORIZON)
16. WOFFORD (SOCON)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. MT ST MARY'S (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Providence, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Clemson, Georgetown, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Arkansas

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, Marquette, West Virginia, UTEP, Georgia, Missouri

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State, Illinois, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Boise State, UNLV, LSU, Mississippi

5 comments:

Sburke said...

Vermont lost, just trying to add value ;)

Anonymous said...

Alabama St has less than half the chance of Texas Southern to win the bid. It is a joke that you have Alabama St listed still.

Daniel Tappa said...

Can we finally agree that Wisconsin is not a 3 seed? You've been awfully stubborn projecting them as a 3, when it was likely going to take a bad loss (home vs Purdue) or a series of losses.

Jeff said...

I'm projecting the bracket as best I can. A few weeks ago Syracuse fans told me I was an idiot for "stubbornly" keeping their team as a 2 seed. I freely admit that not every projection I make will be perfect.

Daniel Tappa said...

Of course you can't be perfect, nobody is asking you to be, but I think I laid out a fairly straight forward explanation as to why Wisconsin was unlikely to be lower than a 2 seed several weeks ago. You just disagreed and must have assumed they would lose to Purdue or Penn State, which is an interesting assumption for someone who seems to know college ball quite well.