Saturday, March 15, 2014

Bubble Watch Heading Into March 15th

With bid thiefs on the loose, the bubble remains very much in flux. Saint Joseph's and Providence got big wins that (for now) get them off the bubble, but the bubble remains 10 teams fighting for 7 bids.

VCU and Oregon moved in as locks, pushing the total number of locks up to 40. There are 28 spots still to fill, but with 14 auto bids on the line in games on Saturday, we have to expect that the number of locks will be up to at least 50 by the end of the day. So the number of spots available for teams like Dayton and Nebraska are rapidly shrinking.

Teams that move up a group are colored green while teams that drop a group are colored red. Here is how the bubble stands as we head into March 15th:

Tournament locks (40 teams):
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Mercer, Saint Louis, VCU, Creighton, Villanova, Coastal Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Delaware, Milwaukee, Harvard, Manhattan, Wichita State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Mt. St. Mary's, Eastern Kentucky, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, American, Florida, Kentucky, Wofford, North Dakota State, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (19, of which 10 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
AAC, America East, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that look safe (7):
Memphis, Pittsburgh, George Washington, UMass, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Colorado

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (5):
SMU, Saint Joseph's, Providence, Xavier, Iowa

The Bubble (10 teams for 7 bids):
Dayton, Minnesota, Nebraska, Southern Miss, Toledo, Arizona State, California, Stanford, Tennessee, BYU

Best of the rest (8):
Florida State, NC State, Georgetown, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, Utah, Georgia

Long shots (3):
St. John's, Arkansas, Missouri

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