Saturday, March 15, 2014

D-1 BP68

This is my last "projected" bracket, so to speak. My next bracket will be my "FINAL" bracket, which will take into account all of the final results of Selection Sunday. Look for it to be posted as soon as we have resolution in all of Sunday's conference tournament title games.

The two big stories, as always, are the 1 seeds and the bubble teams. With the 1 seeds, it seems pretty clear that we have three real contenders. Villanova is one, the Big Ten champ is another (assuming it's Michigan or Wisconsin) and the ACC champ is another (assuming it's Duke or Virginia). Right now I've got Duke in there, but results over the next two days should clear that up. If Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke or Virginia wins their conference title game, Villanova will not earn a 1 seed, though. Don't be fooled by Joe Lunardi still having Villanova as a 1 seed - they will be gone by the end of Saturday night. I still think they're going to be a 3.

As for the bubble, it's a tricky situation to project because we have some potential bid stealers floating around, including St. Bonaventure, NC State and Georgia. For now, though, I've moved Nebraska and Providence into the Field of 68 while dropping out California and St. John's. Dayton is also hanging on for dear life as the last at-large team in the field. The first team out of the field is Minnesota, but there's not a whole lot they can do to help their situation now.

13 teams were eliminated from at-large contention over the last two days: Boise State, Clemson, Illinois, Indiana, LSU, Marquette, Maryland, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, UNLV, Ohio, UTEP and West Virginia. That leaves just 12 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. Michigan
2. Virginia
2. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
2. Wisconsin

3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
3. Villanova
3. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
3. Kansas

4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. IOWA STATE (BIG 12)
4. North Carolina
4. UConn

5. Syracuse
5. Oklahoma
5. Cincinnati
5. New Mexico

6. Ohio State
6. Saint Louis
6. UCLA
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

7. George Washington
7. Oregon
7. Baylor
7. Texas

8. UMass
8. Pittsburgh
8. Kentucky
8. Memphis

9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. SMU
9. Saint Joseph's
9. Kansas State

10. Oklahoma State
10. Colorado
10. Arizona State
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Iowa
11. Tennessee
11. Xavier
11. BYU

12. Providence
12. Stanford
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. Nebraska
12. Dayton
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)
13. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

14. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE  (WAC)
14. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)

15. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. MILWAUKEE (HORIZON)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

16. WOFFORD (SOCON)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. MT ST MARY'S (NEC)
16. CAL POLY (BIG WEST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Minnesota, Southern Miss, California

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Florida State, NC State, Georgetown, Green Bay, Utah,

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
St. John's, Georgia

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Arkansas, Missouri

4 comments:

Daniel Tappa said...

Hypothetical question: Do you think there will be much debate for the final 1 seed if Wisconsin or Michigan win the Big Ten Tournament (presuming Virginia/Duke win ACC Tournament to create debate)?

Wisconsin's resume, at least the major components that the committee says they care about, is better than both Duke's and Virginia's right now while Michigan's is more on par with the ACC pair. If Wisconsin/Michigan win Big Ten Tournament their resume's gets increasingly better than potential improvements to Duke/Virginia's resumes.

Again, it's a hypothetical question. I think Michigan State is the most likely to win Big 10 Tournament, but if Wisconsin/Michigan pull it off, I don't know how they can be kept off the 1 line.

DMoore said...

I think that's probably right, but it's hard to tell. If Michigan wins the Big Ten Tourney, then they won both the regular season and the tourney, and it's hard to deny them over Duke. The alternative argument is if Duke wins the ACC, they have the head to head win, but that was at Duke. If it's Michigan vs. Virginia, I'm not sure. If Wisconsin wins, then they have better big wins than Duke, and they have the head to head over Virginia.

I believe I saw an NCAA Selection Committee spokesperson saying that head to head was one of their key factors, but I'm not certain of that.

I'm not sure if I buy the argument about getting better wins to win the Big Ten than to win the ACC tourney. The only real signature wins could only come in the finals, and that would be between these same 4 teams that we're saying are all very close.

Jeff said...

Historically, head-to-head hasn't mattered at all. Off the top of my head I can think of several examples of a pair of bubble teams where one team swept the other but the latter team earned the at-large bid while the other did not.

Probably the most famous is George Mason during their Final Four year. Most people thought Hofstra would get in over George Mason due to the head-to-head sweep during the season.

thomas morrison said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.