Sunday, March 16, 2014

Complete 2014 NCAA Tournament Analysis

Hey, everybody. I will be spending the next couple of days putting together my complete previews for the 2014 NCAA Tournament and posting them. Links to all of it will be here, so consider this the go-to page for previews. This page will also be linked at the upper right part of this webpage. So you have an idea of what these previews tend to look like, you can check out last year's previews.

Remember, the links at the bottom of this post will not all go live right away. It will take time to put all of these previews together. I will try to get one region up live by the end of Selection Sunday, and hope to have the full set of previews up by Tuesday evening.

I want to give a quick explanation of what these previews are, because they're different from what you'll see basically anywhere else:

First, the breakdowns here are going to be based on tempo-free statistics. You will hear a lot about PPP (points per possession), OR%/DR% (offensive/defensive rebounding percentages), eFG% (effective field goal percentage), FTRate (FTA/FGA) and more. If you have any questions, feel free to ask.

Second, I am going to do my best to use a modern analytical perspective on projected performance. So if you believe that a team being 11-2 in games decided by five points or less is only because they're super clutch, and not because they're super lucky, then you are wrong. That's not the attitude I will be taking here.

Third, I am not going to just fill in the bracket. I don't expect anybody reading this to agree with me on every pick. So I will talk about a variety of match-ups in the later rounds. For example, if I project the 3 seed to knock off the 2 seed in a region, I will still give you my thoughts on the 2 seed versus the 1 seed in the Elite 8.


In addition to picking the winners of every game, I will also be putting up daily posts where I project games against the lines. Those will not be posted on this page - just look for them on the blog. Please don't gamble illegally or use money you cannot afford to lose. I just use that post to break down each game. Of course, if I do help you win some money in your Tournament pool at work and you'd like to throw a bit my way (since this website will always be free), I'd certainly appreciate that. There's a donate button on the right.


Anyway, let's get to these previews:


Final Four

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