Remember, the links at the bottom of this post will not all go live right away. It will take time to put all of these previews together. I will try to get one region up live by the end of Selection Sunday, and hope to have the full set of previews up by Tuesday evening.
I want to give a quick explanation of what these previews are, because they're different from what you'll see basically anywhere else:
First, the breakdowns here are going to be based on tempo-free statistics. You will hear a lot about PPP (points per possession), OR%/DR% (offensive/defensive rebounding percentages), eFG% (effective field goal percentage), FTRate (FTA/FGA) and more. If you have any questions, feel free to ask.
Second, I am going to do my best to use a modern analytical perspective on projected performance. So if you believe that a team being 11-2 in games decided by five points or less is only because they're super clutch, and not because they're super lucky, then you are wrong. That's not the attitude I will be taking here.
Third, I am not going to just fill in the bracket. I don't expect anybody reading this to agree with me on every pick. So I will talk about a variety of match-ups in the later rounds. For example, if I project the 3 seed to knock off the 2 seed in a region, I will still give you my thoughts on the 2 seed versus the 1 seed in the Elite 8.
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In addition to picking the winners of every game, I will also be putting up daily posts where I project games against the lines. Those will not be posted on this page - just look for them on the blog. Please don't gamble illegally or use money you cannot afford to lose. I just use that post to break down each game. Of course, if I do help you win some money in your Tournament pool at work and you'd like to throw a bit my way (since this website will always be free), I'd certainly appreciate that. There's a donate button on the right.
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Anyway, let's get to these previews:
East
West
South
Midwest
Final Four
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