Thursday, March 06, 2014

Bubble Watch Heading Into March 6th

We had a lot of bubble action on Wednesday night. Four more teams locked up their Tournament places with wins: UConn, Louisville, Oklahoma and Texas. That means that 21 bids to the Tournament have been sealed, with 47 still to go.

The bubble continues to get stronger. Colorado moved off the bubble with a big win, but the bubble was joined by Nebraska, Utah and Dayton, and has now swelled to 16 teams for 8 bids. Poor Southern Miss fell off the bubble even without losing, simply because the bubble has run away from them. They're likely going to need Conference USA's auto bid now

Teams that move up a group are colored green while teams that drop a group are colored red. Here is how the bubble stands as we head into March 6th:

Tournament locks (21 teams):
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (32, of which 23 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
AAC, America East, ACC, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, Colonial, CUSA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot, SEC, SoCon, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WCC, WAC

Teams that look safe (10):
Memphis, SMU, UMass, Saint Louis, VCU, Iowa, Ohio State, Kansas State, New Mexico, UCLA

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (10):
Pittsburgh, George Washington, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Harvard, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Gonzaga

The Bubble (16 teams for 8 bids):
Clemson, Florida State,  Dayton, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Minnesota, Nebraska, Toledo, California, Utah, Stanford, Arkansas, Tennessee, BYU

Best of the rest (11):
Marquette, Indiana, West Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, North Dakota State, Missouri, Georgia, LSU

Long shots (15):
Maryland, NC State, Richmond, Illinois, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Ohio, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, Oregon State, Washington, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary's

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