Friday, March 13, 2015

Bubble Watch Heading Into March 13th

Yesterday was a day of carnage for the bubble. The vast majority of bubble teams that played ended up losing. And this was good news for teams like Iowa and NC State, which are still looking to be in good shape despite losses.

Two new teams did lock themselves in (Providence and San Diego State), pushing us to 35 locks. Throw in the remaining auto bids and the teams currently looking "safe" and we're up to 52 spots in the bracket that are pretty much accounted for.

The bubble shrunk yesterday, but I've still got it at 11 teams fighting for 7 spots.

Here is how the bubble stands as we head into Friday, March 13th:

Tournament locks (35 teams): 
SMU, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Florida, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Villanova, Coastal Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Northeastern, Valparaiso, Manhattan, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, San Diego State,  Robert Morris, Belmont, Arizona, Utah, Lafayette, Arkansas, Kentucky, Wofford, North Dakota State, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (20, of which 12 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
AAC, America East, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that look safe (5):
Cincinnati, VCU, Xavier, Michigan State, Colorado State

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (10):
NC State, Davidson, Dayton, Temple, St. John's, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, Georgia, LSU

The Bubble (11 teams for 7 bids):
Tulsa, Miami, Indiana, Oklahoma State, Texas, Boise State, UCLA, Oregon, Mississippi, Texas A&M, BYU

Best of the rest (6):
Rhode Island, Richmond, Illinois, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Stanford

Long shots (11):
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, George Washington, UTEP,  Green Bay, Iona, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Murray State, Florida, Stephen F. Austin

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