Sunday, March 08, 2015

W-1 BP68

We're just one week from Selection Sunday, and the last full Saturday slate of the season was fantastic. Just a ton of great games.

I made three changes to the Field of 68 since Wednesday. The first is North Carolina State moving in, replacing Texas A&M.

Among the auto-bids, one is not a projection but a fact: Belmont will be representing the Ohio Valley, replacing Murray State. In addition, Coastal Carolina is my new projected Big South tournament winner, replacing High Point.

As we're into the final week of the season, I will (as usual) have three bracket projections. The first will be released after Wednesday night's games, the second after Friday night's games, and the third just before the official bracket is released on Sunday.

Three teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday: California, Saint Mary's and Wyoming. That leaves just 25 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)

2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
3. Utah
3. Baylor

4. Iowa State
4. SMU (AAC)
4. Notre Dame
4. Maryland

5. Louisville
5. NORTHERN IOWA (MISSOURI VALLEY)
5. West Virginia
5. Georgetown

6. Arkansas
6. Butler
6. Wichita State
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

7. Providence
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Michigan State
7. Colorado State

8. Xavier
8. St. John's
8. Ohio State
8. Iowa

9. Cincinnati
9. Davidson
9. Dayton
9. Temple

10. Georgia
10. Texas
10. Boise State
10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma State
11. LSU
11. Purdue
11. BYU
11. North Carolina State

12. Indiana
12. Mississippi
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. IONA (MAAC)
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

13. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. WOFFORD (SOCON)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. BELMONT (OVC)

15. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Miami, UCLA, Texas A&M

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Illinois, Old Dominion, Stanford

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Richmond, Buffalo

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Connecticut, Memphis, Clemson, George Washington, UMass, Minnesota, Kansas State, UTEP, Green Bay, Murray State, Arizona State, Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Carolina at a 3 seed seems reallyy unlikely at this point. Are you thinking they beat Louisville and then Virginia?