Thursday, March 12, 2015

D-3 BP68

The first half of Championship Week is for the smaller conferences. In fact, due to upsets in those conference tournaments there are five one-bid league champs that have changed in the bracket this week: Lafayette (Patriot), Manhattan (MAAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Northeastern (CAA) and Robert Morris (NEC). They replace, respectively, Colgate, Iona, South Dakota State, William & Mary and St. Francis-NY.

That said, the bubble didn't shift much. Teams like Miami and Texas had games that they had to win that they won. The one bubble team that lost was BYU, and I talked about their situation yesterday.

As the bubble gets tougher, some fairly good teams have been left out. For the record, UCLA is the first team out of the projected bracket right now.

Meanwhile, five teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Arizona State, Clemson, Kansas State, Memphis, Minnesota. That leaves just 21 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. That list should get pared down to close to a dozen by Selection Sunday.

I will publish another projected bracket after Friday night's games. By then we should have far more bubble clarity.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)

2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Duke
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Oklahoma
3. Baylor
3. North Carolina
3. Utah

4. Iowa State
4. Maryland
4. SMU (AAC)
4. Notre Dame

5. Louisville
5. West Virginia
5. NORTHERN IOWA (MISSOURI VALLEY)
5. Georgetown

6. Butler
6. Arkansas
6. Wichita State
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

7. Providence
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Michigan State
7. Colorado State

8. Xavier
8. Iowa
8. St. John's
8. Cincinnati

9. Ohio State
9. Davidson
9. Dayton
9. Temple

10. Georgia
10. Texas
10. Oregon
10. Boise State

11. Oklahoma State
11. North Carolina State
11. LSU
11. Purdue
11. Indiana

12. BYU
12. Mississippi
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTLAND)
12. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)

13. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. WOFFORD (SOCON)
13. HARVARD (IVY)

14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)

15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC0
16. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Miami, UCLA, Texas A&M

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Illinois, Old Dominion, Stanford

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Rhode Island, Richmond, Buffalo

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Connecticut,  Pittsburgh, George Washington, UMass, UTEP, Green Bay, Iona, Murray State, Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt

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