Thursday, March 05, 2015

W-1.5 BP68

For the most part, the bubble got weaker the past few days. A number of teams just narrowly in the field suffered tough losses. That opens things up for any team near the bubble that can take care of business over the next week.

There is one change to the Field of 68 this week, which is Oregon moving in after three straight impressive road victories. Stanford, one of the teams that they beat over that stretch, drops out.

In addition, four teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday, including some teams that were in the thick of the bubble hunt just a few weeks ago: Michigan, Oregon State, Seton Hall and Toledo. That leaves just 27 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)

2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Oklahoma
3. Utah
3. North Carolina
3. Baylor

4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Iowa State
4. SMU (AAC)
4. Notre Dame

5. Maryland
5. Louisville
5. Northern Iowa
5. West Virginia

6. Arkansas
6. Georgetown
6. Butler
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

7. Providence
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Dayton
7. Michigan State

8. Colorado State
8. Xavier
8. St. John's
8. Ohio State

9. Iowa
9. Cincinnati
9. Oklahoma State
9. Temple

10. Georgia
10. Davidson
10. Mississippi
10. Texas

11. Boise State
11. Indiana
11. Oregon
11. BYU
11. LSU

12. Texas A&M
12. Purdue
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. IONA (MAAC)
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)

14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. WOFFORD (SOCON)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

15. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Miami, NC State, UCLA, Stanford

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Pittsburgh, Illinois, Old Dominion

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Connecticut, UMass, Rhode Island, Richmond, Minnesota, Saint Mary's

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, Clemson, George Washington, Kansas State, Green Bay, Buffalo, UTEP, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt

7 comments:

Matt said...

Hey Jeff,

I've been following your blog pretty religiously for the last two seasons. I love it and thanks for all of the time you put into this, its great to get a concise and objective breakdown of the latest college hoops action a few times a week.

Anyways, I'm a huge Arkansas fan. During my time surfing your blog I've noticed that you've been pretty down on the hogs/hesitant to buy into them. Funny thing is I agree, this team is just so wildly inconsistent that I'm constantly holding my breath while watching them. I truly don't get how some of the national pundits are so quick to talk about how great the hogs are after a few mediocre sec wins.

Anyways, I'd like to see what your thoughts are on the piggies as we wrap up the regular season and look toward sec tournament time/march madness. Whats your rationale for the 6 seed? Most projections are falling between the 4-5 range. I think anything from a 4-7 could happen but I'd like your input. How do you think they'll fair in the tournament?

Hope to hear back soon, thanks for your time.....Lets hope the hogs don't choke away another crappy road performance tonight.

Jeff said...

Hey, thanks for the kind words.

As you said, I've been a bit lower on Arkansas than the national consensus this season. It has nothing to do with style (the struggling of Mike Anderson teams away from home has always been overstated), but just because I don't think they're as good as their record. They're 7-2 in SEC games decided by six points or fewer.

In SEC play, the efficiency margin for Arkansas (+0.07 PPP) just doesn't strike me as the quality of play likely to lead to a lot of success down the road. In comparison, LSU is at +0.05 PPP. Ole Miss and Texas A&M are +0.04 PPP. Even Vanderbilt is at +0.03.

That said, if they end up in a bracket with a bunch of teams that are sloppy with the ball that they can force 20 turnovers against? They could make a Sweet 16 run.

Matt said...

Thanks Jeff. Hopefully things will work out and the hogs will turn a few heads coming up. Keep up the hard work.

Jeff said...

Well they're looking damn impressive tonight.

Jeff said...

I apologize for the jinx. This second half performance is on me.

Matt said...

Arkansas in a nutshell. A&M game was the same way. We have awesome athletes who take turns playing in 10 minute streaks of lights out 40 minutes of hell and completely sluggish and disinterested. Strange.

I came across a few stats tonight that back up your earlier statements. Hogs have as many road wins this year as the last four combined. Also, 9 of the hogs 17 SEC games have been decided by 5 pts or less (7-2). Time will tell how things are gonna shake out.

Matt said...

Just saw that you already dropped that 7-2 stat on me....get off my twitter feed!!!