Sunday, March 15, 2015

FINAL BP68

The bubble is more confused that it's often been in recent years. Teams that are 9 seeds in this bracket could, possibly, end up missing. It will be a test of Selection Committee philosophy for a few of them: How much do they weight recent games against earlier games? How much do they care about bad losses?

In the end, though, I think it comes down to seven teams for the last four spots. I've got BYU, Indiana, Mississippi and Texas in, with Boise State, Miami and Texas A&M out. If I get one of those wrong, I think Boise State is the first team out of the field, so they're the most likely to prove me wrong.

Some other interesting seeds to keep an eye on as a test of Selection Committee philosophy: Utah, Wichita State and Temple. All three have a wide range they can end up depending on which parts of their resume you want to focus on.

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. Virginia

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Duke
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. Kansas

3. IOWA STATE (BIG 12)
3. Maryland
3. NOTRE DAME (ACC)
3. Baylor

4. North Carolina
4. Oklahoma
4. SMU (AAC)
4. NORTHERN IOWA (MISSOURI VALLEY)

5. Utah
5. Arkansas
5. West Virginia
5. Louisville

6. Providence
6. Xavier
6. Michigan State
6. Georgetown

7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Wichita State
7. Cincinnati
7. Butler

8. Oregon
8. San Diego State
8. Iowa
8. Davidson

9. North Carolina State
9. St. John's
9. Dayton
9. Temple

10. Ohio State
10. Purdue
10. Georgia
10. Colorado State

11. LSU
11. Oklahoma State
11. Texas
11. Indiana
11. Ole Miss
11. BYU

12. WYOMING (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. WOFFORD (SOCON)
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
12. BUFFALO (MAC)

13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)

If I missed somebody on the bubble, these are the most likely teams:
Tulsa, Miami, Old Dominion, Boise State, UCLA, Stanford, Texas A&M

Other more distant possibilities - that could possibly get a bid but probably shouldn't
Connecticut, Rhode Island, Richmond, Illinois,  Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Iona, Central Michigan, Murray State

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I warned you about Temple.

I thaought that Colorado State deserved a bid more than any team left out. Swap them with UCLA and I'm really happy with the selections.

Jeff said...

Temple being out is completely inexplicable. I'd love to see somebody explain how the Jio Fontan USC team got in but Temple got left out.

Anonymous said...

I don't think it's completely inexplicable. Temple's numbers across the board weren't that good. Even Cincinnati's numbers from the AAC weren't that good but they had enough good wins to be safely in the field. UCLA being "safely" in is inexplicable.