Sunday, March 01, 2015

W-2 BP68

It's March, and this is the last bracket projection before the conference tournaments tip off, so things are really going to start moving and changing in the brackets. It's that time of year we all love.

With Gonzaga going down last night, that opens up a new 1 seed line, which is being taken by Villanova. Gonzaga drops to a 2 seed. Realistically, I don't think Gonzaga can get back to that 1 seed line, as they'd have way too many teams to pass. Duke, Wisconsin and Kansas will all be in good shape for a 1 seed if they can win out, though winning out will be very difficult for all three.

Among the at-large teams this week, Boise State and BYU move in with big wins, while Miami and NC State drop out. Among the auto-bids, Valparaiso is the new Horizon League favorite, replacing Cleveland State. Though once the conference tournament season kicks off, those 1-bid league favorites will start changing quickly. A lot of favorites will end up losing, as it's the nature of the beast for one-and-done tournaments.

In addition, four teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday: Sam Houston State, Tennessee, TCU and Washington. That leaves just 31 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. That number will be down to close to a dozen in two weeks.
Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)

2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Oklahoma
3. Utah
3. North Carolina
3. Baylor

4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Iowa State
4. SMU (AAC)
4. Louisville

5. Notre Dame
5. Maryland
5. Northern Iowa
5. West Virginia

6. Arkansas
6. Butler
6. Georgetown
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

7. Michigan State
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Providence
7. Dayton

8. Colorado State
8. Xavier
8. St. John's
8. Ohio State

9. Georgia
9. Oklahoma State
9. Temple
9. Iowa

10. Cincinnati
10. Davidson
10. Indiana
10. LSU

11. Mississippi
11. Stanford
11. Texas
11. Texas A&M
11. Boise State

12. Purdue
12. BYU
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. IONA (MAAC)
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)

14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. WOFFORD (SOCON)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

15. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Miami, NC State, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Oregon

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Illinois, Old Dominion

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Connecticut, Clemson, UMass, Rhode Island, Richmond, Minnesota, Saint Mary's

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, George Washington, Seton Hall, Michigan, Kansas State, Green Bay, Buffalo, Toledo, UTEP, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Oregon State, Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does UConn's status as defending champ get them in, especially after beating SMU?

Jeff said...

No, you don't get a pass for being the defending champ. Right now they're just 9-10 against the RPI Top 200. They're not on the bubble.

Brian Mollberg said...

Cleveland St. 4 seed now - They knock off Valpo - Green Bay could host championship game. Would that be your miracle...Madness Now.