Duke Grabs a #1 Seed... For Now

#2 Duke 89, #3 North Carolina 78
Obviously last night's headliner. An enjoyable game, although I'm not sure it lived up to all the hype. It was nice to see Vitale back to his old self, though. At this point, Duke is clearly in the driver's seat in the ACC, so I'm probably going to move them into a #1 seed in this coming weekend's BP65. But I'm still not convinced that they're a title threat. I've talk about this before, but Duke just seems too dependent on the three-pointer. On many occasions this season they've buried teams with it, and they buried Carolina with 13-29 shooting from behind the arc in this one. And the fact that only 39 of their 89 points came from the three is deceptive. For much of the game, a majority of their points came from the three. They stopped shooting as many late in the game. The thing about teams that depend on the three is that on any given night they can beat anybody. And when you have Duke-level talent, you can be absolutely amazing. But what happens when the shots don't fall? Duke doesn't have an inside presence whatsoever - Hansbrough tore them apart for 28 points and 18 boards. And Duke plays good team defense - they can press and trap well. But I'm not as impressed by their one-on-one defenders. When it comes to the half-court game, I just don't think Duke has the defenders who can go one-on-one with the elite scoring guards that many Tournament teams will have. And most importantly, I don't see Duke having the ability to score 80 points in a game when the three isn't falling. The point is that even if the first round Tournament match-up is a gimme, you've still got to win five more straight games against good teams. If the three isn't falling for all five games you're in trouble. This is why three-point-depending teams haven't won a lot of Tournaments lately, or ever. I think Carolina is a more likely Final Four team than Duke at this point. Although it remains to be seen how they'll deal without Ty Lawson. Twenty turnovers to 17 assists last night? Aggressive defenders around the ACC are probably licking their lips. Somebody is going to have to step up to be an elite ball-handler.

Maryland 70, Boston College 65
Gary Williams, who has fallen below the radar over the past few years, collected his very impressive 600th win in this one. Even more impressive that it came against a tough Boston College squad, on the road. Definitely something to brag about on Selection Sunday for a team that is clearly going to go down the wire right on the bubble. My guess is that even on the morning of Selection Sunday, we still won't know for sure whether the Terps are going to get an at-large bid or not. At this point they have a resume that has good parts and bad parts. The 5-3 ACC record is excellent. The RPI outside the Top 50 is not. Neither is the 5-7 record against the RPI Top 100. But looking at their remaining schedule, they have a lot of RPI Top 100 opponents to go, but most of it is winnable. Other than the game at Duke, Maryland will be favorites or close-to-even-money to win every other game. 10-6 is very do-able, and even 11-5 isn't too much of a long shot. If they can get that kind of a conference record, I have to believe that the computer numbers will get where an at-large team needs them. As for BC, a pretty devastating loss to their at-large hopes. This is one of the games that you figure won't be easy, but that you secretly count in the win column when you are looking ahead at the schedule. With bad computer numbers and a mediocre conference record, the Eagles really need a big win. They get Carolina at the Conte Forum on March 1st, and you feel like they almost have to win that one in order to get some positive buzz as we head into March Madness.

#19 UConn 63, Syracuse 61
The only question is whether UConn is peaking too early, because it's pretty hard to name five teams in the country playing better than the Huskies right now. This is a tough loss for a Syracuse team that would have moved to 7-4 in the Big East with a win here. Instead, they're 6-5 and the schedule is going to get very tough. They still get Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville and Notre Dame. They're going to struggle to do much better than 10-8, although even that might be enough. It will likely depend on how they finish, how they play in the Big East Tournament, and where the computer numbers end up.

Dayton 69, Charlotte 64
If Dayton sneaks into the Tournament, they're going to look back on this game as the reason why. They entered this game in the midst of an awful stretch - four of the previous five games had been double-digit losses. They were down pretty big early on, and a loss would have dropped them to 3-5 in the conference. With a couple of tough games left to go, Dayton was going to need to play almost perfect to get to the 10-6 record they'd probably need to get an at-large bid. I just can't see a team getting out of the Atlantic Ten with a 9-7 conference record. But instead, the Flyers came back strong and got a solid win over an RPI Top 100 team. The RPI numbers all through the A-10 are insane and will get taken with a huge grain of salt by the Selection Committee, but some of the more important computer numbers are starting to come around for Dayton. Sagarin has them up to 46th, and Pomeroy has them up to 68th. It's unlikely that they'll get to 11-5, but even 10-6 might be enough. Like I just said about Syracuse - it depends how they finish, how they do in the conference tournament, and where the computer numbers end up.

Duquesne 102, St. Joseph's 88
I've said it a thousand times before - teams so often follow huge wins with letdown games. Against Nova, St. Joe's had their best game since Jameer Nelson was bringing the ball up. But the final score doesn't even do this game justice, as Duquesne was up 22 points at halftime before easing up and cruising to a victory. I still don't see St. Joe's as a Tournament team, and it's not just because of this game. I know that they're still 6-2 in the A-10, but their conference schedule is really back-loaded. I would be absolutely shocked if they finished better than 10-6, and they just don't have the glamor wins (like Dayton has) to overcome a 10-6 record out of a mid-major conference.

Kentucky 66, Auburn 63
I talked about this a couple of weeks ago. I said that Kentucky needed the wins at Georgia and Auburn to stay in the bubble discussion. They got them. And now they get a very winnable game at home against Alabama which would push them to 6-2 in the SEC. They still have to head to Vandy and Tennessee, but Kentucky could easily finish 11-5. And that would certainly make them an interesting case. Can you ignore a team that finishes that strongly? The computer numbers are still obviously atrocious, although the Sagarin PREDICTOR is up to 64th.

Mississippi State 73, Alabama 66
A solid "taking care of business" win for a Mississippi State team that moves to 6-2 in the SEC. I still think that the Bulldogs are the sixth team in the pecking order for a conference that probably doesn't deserve six Tournament teams, but they're certainly part of the bubble discussion. They really lack a marquee win, and their 2-7 record against the RPI Top 100 is atrocious. The problem is that they don't really get another shot at a big win. They don't get Tennessee again, and only get Ole Miss and Vandy on the road. They've probably got to win at least one of those. If they can get to 12-4 in the SEC they will probably get in on "overall resume", but I just don't know if 11-5 will be enough. And 10-6 almost certainly won't be.