Saturday, February 02, 2008

Early Afternoon Update

As always, I'll be updating game results throughout the day. As I type this, here are the most important games to be completed so far:

Maryland 88, Georgia Tech 86
This is a good result for the conference, as opposed to the Kentucky win (I'll get to that in a moment). In several of the major conferences there is a team that played poorly in the out-of-conference that has been playing well in conference, and this never makes their conference mates happy. They hurt the computer numbers and records of the teams with a higher likelihood of a Tournament win. In the ACC, that team is Georgia Tech, which went 7-6 in the out-of-conference but was 3-3 in the ACC before this one. A win here would have put them 4-3, yet still pretty far out of the Tournament. Maryland, on the other hand, is a lot closer to an at-large bid than people give them credit for. Coming into this one the RPI was in the 80s and that really scared a lot of people off. But the fact is that in the ACC you can move up those charts pretty quickly. This win moves them into the mid-60s, as well as shooting the ACC record up to 4-3. The Sagarin PREDICTOR hasn't updated, but I'm sure the Terps will move up close to 50th. They're still a mediocre 4-7 against the RPI Top 100, and they obviously wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended now. But they're well-positioned. This was an important "taking care of business" win for them.

Syracuse 87, Villanova 73
A pretty entertaining game. You had a lot of athletes and not very much defense. Personally, it seemed like the players either were a bit out of shape, worn out, or just didn't want to show much effort. They all played hard when on offense, but the transition defense was terrible. In the end, the Orangemen got the important win. Syracuse will almost definitely move back into the BP65 tonight/tomorrow morning. Villanova, meanwhile, is really falling apart. They are 3-6 in the Big East and all of the computer numbers are atrocious. They've probably got to get to 10-8 to get an at-large bid... and that's just looking pretty unlikely right now.

UConn 60, #21 Pittsburgh 53

Pitt continues to be just devastated by injuries. They miss most of all the three-point shooting that was so key last year. In this one they went 2-for-16. UConn, meanwhile, continues to tear through college basketball. They should finally return to the Top 25 when the new polls come out on Monday. UConn's RPI is actually up to 16th right now, which is the 2nd highest in the Big East. They're still a very long shot to take the Big East title, but anything is possible. Everything is just clicking now, even with the two suspended players. As far as Pitt's collapse, I don't think anybody really expects them to fall out of the Tournament altogether. But their seed is certainly going to tumble. I could easily see them falling out to an 8 or 9 seed if they don't get a hold of things. The Selection Committee takes injuries into account, but you can't just pretend that all of these losses haven't happened.

Kentucky 63, Georgia 58

I spoke about this earlier with respect to Georgia Tech. But Kentucky's run here has really got to be a nightmare for the SEC. All they're doing is knocking team after team out of the Tournament picture, while driving down the overall computer numbers for the conference. Not that Georgia had a great shot to make the Tournament anyway, of course. The aftermath of this game, however, is that Kentucky moves up to 4-2 in the SEC. The RPI is still outside the Top 100, but their Sagarin PREDICTOR was 66th entering this game. At this point their most likely final record in the SEC is 10-6 or 11-5. At 10-6 they can pack their bags for the NIT. But at 11-5, I'm not sure you can really ignore them. It will depend who they beat, how they finish and how they do in the conference Tournament. Pretty amazing that we're even still discussing the Wildcats after their atrocious start to the season.

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