Evening Look at BracketBusters

Hey, did you know that Memphis and Tennessee are playing later today?

What's ironic about the over-hyping of this game is that it actually doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. It should be a fun game because of the styles of play and because there are probably five or six future NBA players on the floor. But both of these teams can lose this game and still earn a #1 seed in the Tournament. The biggest issue for me is whether Tennessee can keep Memphis from getting that regular season undefeated record. Memphis fans should almost hope that they do, because we've seen in seasons past that an undefeated record is quite a burden. Teams are much more loose when they can snap the undefeated season in time for the post-season Tournament (just ask the 2004-05 Illinois team).

Anyway, let's get to games that have actually finished already:

#6 UCLA 75, Oregon 65
The Ducks led nearly this entire game before faltering down the stretch. The final score is deceptive, as this game was much closer than the ten point victory margin might suggest. Despite the hideous uniforms (I hope they're already in the trash), Oregon played very well. The problem is, they'd already dug themselves into a hole where this was nearly a must-win game. At this point the Ducks probably need to win their final three regular season games to still earn an at-large bid. The Ducks have slipped to 6-9 in the Pac-10, to go along with a 3-8 record against the RPI Top 50, and a 4-8 record on the road. They don't quite need a miracle, but they need a huge turnaround immediately.

Southern Illinois 74, Nevada 49
So where was this performance for the past month? SIU is clearly a very dangerous team, despite what people might think from looking at their overall record. Their overall team defense isn't where it was the past two years, but they still have some great individual defenders. And the offense is obviously in decent shape if they're putting up 74 points on a solid Nevada team. This win catapalts the RPI into the mid-50s, and SIU does have a few decent wins to brag about. Their downfall has actually been playing down to their competition, as they're a remarkable 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 and 9-6 against teams with an RPI of 101+. Can they still earn an at-large bid with all of their bad losses? It's doubtful, but possible. They absolutely need to win out the regular season and get to the Missouri Valley Tournament Finals. If they lose a close game to Drake, for example, the Salukis would have to merit consideration on Selection Sunday.

#18 Drake 71, #8 Butler 64
Drake possibly put on their most impressive performance of the year in this one - although I say that with the caveat that this is one of the rare times I've actually gotten to watch them play live. They looked cool, calm and collected, and they never panicked when Butler went on little runs. And they absolutely clamped down on the perimeter, holding a hot-shooting Butler team to 6-for-24 from behind the arc. Drake didn't shoot much better, percentage wise (5-for-17 for them), but they were smart enough to not take as many. It seemed like Butler settled for deep threes, while Drake was more inclined to push the ball inside. I will also add that this game was a display of the difference between playing an entire season in the Missouri Valley versus the Horizon League. The Horizon League is an above average league with some decent teams. But the Valley is just a brutal schedule, with good teams all over the place. There are no easy wins in the Valley (despite being ranked below the Atlantic Ten in virtually every computer ranking, there's no question that the bottom of the Valley is superior to the bottom of the A-10). Drake is simply a more battle-tested team, and that experience came through in terms of demeanor in this one. Of course, this game actually doesn't do much for the bracket. Drake is still looking like a 4 or 5 seed, and Butler is still looking like a 4-6 seed. The Butler players shouldn't get too down on themselves - this game was more about gaining the experience of playing elite teams than anything else.

LSU 69, Mississippi 49
LSU continues to play solid ball while playing spoiler in the SEC. This one ends up as an embarrassing loss for an Ole Miss squad that is in a total tailspin. They do, indeed, seem to be the '06-'07 Clemson of 2007-08. They are now 4-8 in the SEC, and the RPI has slipped to 50th. They have the wins over Vanderbilt and South Alabama. And I'm sure that the Selection Committee will remember how close the Rebels came to stealing a win in Knoxville. But if they can't win their final four regular season games they will end up 7-9 or worse in a fairly weak SEC. I just can't see a 7-9 SEC team making the Tournament. Heck, I have trouble seeing an 8-8 SEC team making the Tournament, although Mississippi would have a great shot if they could pull it off. Unfortunately, they are now 3-7 in their last ten games, so a four-game winning streak doesn't seem all too likely. Honestly, the Ole Miss players shouldn't even be thinking about the Tournament right now. They need to try to end the season on a high-note - maybe by making a little run in the SEC Tournament or the NIT. They have a very young nucleus, highlighted by their stellar guard duo of Chris Warren and Eniel Polynice. If they can keep everybody from going early to the NBA, this team could do special things in the not-so-distant future.