Looking Back at Sunday & Monday

#23 Louisville 75, Pittsburgh 73
A tough loss for a Pitt team that is just starting to get comfortable, healthy and on a roll. This loss won't be too devastating, other than that they miss an opportunity to pick up a slightly higher seed. Even though they've fallen to 7-7 in the Big East, they are not really in much danger of missing the Tournament. The computer numbers are pretty nice and they're 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, including wins over Duke and Georgetown. In addition, they'll get some credit for doing all of this with a bunch of tough injuries. With a relatively easy remaining Big East schedule, they should have no problem getting to 9-9 overall. Hard to see them missing the Tournament if they hit that .500 mark. As for Louisville, they are in a great position right now. They are tied with Notre Dame and Georgetown atop the Big East, all with three losses. Louisville's next three games include a home game against Notre Dame (who are only 5-5 in road/neutral games this season), and a road game against a very mortal-looking Georgetown team. Louisville controls their own destiny in the Big East, and we'll just have to wait to see if they can earn that title.

#21 Notre Dame 94, Syracuse 87
Speaking of Notre Dame, they racked up their 36th consecutive home victory in this one. I'm still not entirely convinced that this is a truly elite team, because they just seem a bit too slow in the backcourt. Luke Harangody is a very good player, but Tournament play is about guard play, and I just don't see Kyle McAlarney as that kind of elite scorer/creator. Regardless, they are now in great position, tied atop the Big East. Like I said, they have to head to Louisville. But other than that, their other three remaining games are against Depaul, St. John's and South Florida. Doesn't get much easier in the Big East. At worst they're looking at something like a 24-8 overall record and an RPI in the high-20s. I doubt they'll slip lower than something like a 6 or 7 seed, and they still have a chance at something like a 3 seed if they can win the regular season or tournament title out of the Big East. As for Syracuse, they seem destined for yet another nail-biting Selection Sunday. They had a great chance to put themselves firmly into the Tournament in this one, but couldn't come up with the big road upset. Now they are 7-8 in the Big East, with three pretty tough games to go. They could go 8-10 overall and still make the Tournament, but only if they have a respectable showing in the Big East Tournament. A first round exit would mean a final record of 18-14, with seven losses in their final nine games. That will almost definitely not get a Tournament bid, even with the excellent strength of schedule and nice computer numbers. So if we look at their final three regular season games and their first round Big East Tourney game as their next four games, I think it's safe to say that they need to get at least two of those. They need to go on a little spurt to give the Selection Committee a reason to put them in.

#21 Marquette 85, Villanova 75
A gritty effort from a Marquette team that is really starting to find its stride. This is now five consecutive wins in the Big East, and eight of ten. At 20-6 and 11-5 in the Big East, they have now wrapped up a Tournament bid. The Big East title is too far out of reach, but a nice Big East Tournament run is not. Assuming they end up fifth in the Big East they will have a relatively easy first round opponent (probably Depaul or Seton Hall) that they should be able to beat. After that it will be a second round match-up against the #4 seed, which is most likely UConn. I think Marquette needs to finish strong and maybe get to something like the Big East Semifinals if they really want consideration for an elite seeding. Something like a #3 seed in the Tournament is not out of the question if the Golden Eagles keep playing like they have lately. As for Nova, this gets back to what I said here and here. They really needed to take care of business at home in this one. They have now slipped to 7-8 with a game at Louisville looming. If they drop that one, they absolutely need to take care of business against South Florida and Providence to get to 9-9. I would guess that a 9-9 finish and a first round victory in the Big East Tournament would probably be enough for an at-large bid, but not necessarily. They could really use that win over Louisville on Sunday.

#9 Texas 74, Kansas State 65
The newest glamor team in the national media is Texas. Listening to various analysts on tv, you'd think it was Texas that just became the #1 team in the country - not Tennessee. Yes, they've won eight straight, and this win was nice as was their three-point victory at home over Kansas. But other than that it's been six relatively mediocre opponents. And Texas still has some holes - they're not a perfect team. Certainly, they are now in the driver's seat for a #1 seed. But they've got to take the Big 12 Tournament. A loss to Kansas there would probably knock Texas back to a #2 seed, and even a #3 seed is possible if they drop two games the rest of the way. Kansas State, meanwhile, doesn't get hurt too much by this loss (other than the opportunity cost of a missed chance). The RPI has slipped out of the Top 40, but that's not all too important. At 8-5 in the Big 12 they head to Kansas next, but then finish up with two easy games. Figure they get to 10-6, to go with wins over Kansas and Texas A&M, and a 3-4 record against the RPI Top 50, and that's a pretty solid resume. They haven't locked up an at-large bid yet, but they'd clearly be in if the season ended now. If they can get that 10-6 finish, and then avoid a first round upset in the Big 12 Tournament, they should be pretty safe for an at-large bid.