Look at First Two Sets Of Games

With the first two sets of games in the books, let's look at the biggest results of the day:

Villanova 67, #13 UConn 65
After opening up a nice early lead, Nova tried their best to blow this game. But in the end their speed was just a tiny bit too much for UConn's strength. Corey Stokes was the spark off the bench with 18 points in this one. Nova has now had five straight strong games which followed that five game losing streak which seemed to torpedo their at-large hopes. They have now won four of their last five, with the one loss being that injustice against Georgetown. They're now up to 7-7 in the Big East, with an RPI in the mid-50s. I'll refer back to what I said after their last game. I said that winning five of their next six would almost definitely put them in the Tournament. Well, that's one down. Now they need four of the next five. And you look at their schedule and that looks like a real possibility.

Miami (Fl) 78, Maryland 63
Miami seems to have really been energized by that Duke win. That's the thing about being in the ACC - anytime you can beat Duke or UNC it always feels like your season has taken a big turn for the better. The computer numbers have been nice all year, but this win is more important in that it brings the ACC record up to .500. And you look at their remaining schedule and it's really about as easy as it can get in the ACC. Three of their final four remaining games are against Virginia, BC and FSU. Hard to see them finishing worse than 8-8 now. Eight conference wins also means 20 overall wins. So the question might become: would you rather have an 8-8 ACC team or a 9-7 Atlantic Ten team. Yeah, me too. Miami is looking very good for a Tournament bid right now. Maryland is another team that has benefited by a win over one of the Big Two, but they have to be careful not to drop any more games like this one. They are now 7-6 with three very winnable games the rest of the way. If they can get to 9-7 they're pretty safe for a Tournament bid. They only have one bad loss (American University), and that is more than wiped out by the win at UNC. If they drop to 8-8 they might miss the Tournament, however. So they really need to take care of business by winning at least two of their final three.

Kentucky 63, Arkansas 58
Arkansas seemed to have the upper-hand with a few minutes to go, but just did not play with the same intensity as Kentucky in the game's key moments. Kentucky's defense was just fierce. You almost have to imagine who these guys are wearing the Kentucky uniforms, and what they did to the team that played "matador" defense against San Diego and Gardner Webb. If Davidson can take care of business in the SoCon Tournament, Kentucky becomes the most interesting bubble case. A month into the season they had an RPI of around 250th. And the computer numbers are still poor (even with this win, the RPI is still around 60th, and the Sagarin will be in the 60s as well). But 9-3 in the SEC, with a real chance to finish 12-4? You can't ignore that finish. At this point, I would say that Kentucky's future is beginning to clear up a little bit. If they finish 10-6 they'll get some token bubble discussion, but there's almost no way they'll get in the Tournament. At 12-4 they'll be a near lock for the Tournament. If they finish 11-5... I'll have to get back to you. It depends what happens with other bubble teams. As for Arkansas, this loss drops them to 7-5 in the SEC. I think they'll actually miss the Tournament if they slip to 8-8, so they need to make sure they get at least two of their final four regular season games. That makes their Wednesday game at Alabama a near necessity. With games against Vandy and at Ole Miss to follow, the Razorbacks have absolutely got to take care of business against a bottom feeder of the SEC.

Virginia Tech 92, Georgia Tech 84
A.D. Vassallo's 27 points powered the Hokies in this one, making it two straight wins now to keep their at-large hopes breathing. The win pushes Virginia Tech up to a respectable 7-6 in the ACC, and pushes the RPI up to around 60th. Their three remaining games are not all that impossible, although it's been tough to beat Clemson on the road this season. The fact is that Virginia Tech needs to win two of their remaining three to remain in the bubble conversation heading into the ACC Tournament. Honestly, they need all three if they're going to have a good shot. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is essentially done. They are now 4-7 in the ACC and 11-14 overall. The computer numbers remain great (when compared to their overall record), but they need to win their final five regular season games to even be in the conversation. So I guess that makes Wednesday's match-up at Duke a must-win. I don't like their odds.