Nothing Saturday

Really, it's hard to imagine a Saturday this late into a season where less has happened. Few top teams playing each other, and no real upsets to speak of. I'll talk about the most important results from the day so far regardless:

#17 Washington State 74, USC 50
Maybe Washington State has really turned the corner, as I suggested was possible after their last game a few days back. After a bunch of horrible shooting games, Wazzu was scorching in this one. In all, 60% shooting from the field. When you're second in the nation in defensive points allowed per game, you don't need to shoot that well to beat good teams. In this one they shot real well, and buried a red-hot USC squad. It's too late for the Cougars to make a run at the conference title, but this win puts these two squads in a tie for third place in the Pac-10. If Washington State can finish somewhere around 11-7 in the conference they should still get a very nice Tournament seed. The computer numbers will continue to be spectacular, and they should remain safely in the Top 25. USC, of course, is not in too much danger right now of falling out of the Tournament. This would have been a great win, but nobody will hold it against them for losing at a team with such a strong homefield advantage. Now, they have 8 days to prepare for a big match-up against UCLA next Sunday. USC already took the win at Pauley Pavilion, and a win next Sunday would give them the season sweep. Other than the UCLA game, the USC schedule really isn't that bad at all. Even if they lose the game against UCLA, I still can't imagine them finishing worse than 10-8. And that will be plenty for a single-digit seed in the Tournament.

Arkansas 75, Mississippi 69
Another huge win for the red-hot Razorbacks. It's certainly a surprising turn of events, but at this point everyone would have to agree that there's no way Arkansas doesn't make the Tournament if the season ended now. The thing is that Arkansas doesn't have any wins that blow you away, and they do have a bad loss (Appalachian State), so they're getting in the Tournament on the 6-2 SEC record and the solid computer numbers (33rd in the RPI). So the key is keeping that strong SEC record. Unfortunately, they now head to Tennessee and Mississippi State for two straight tough road games. The fact is that if they play mediocre the rest of the way, something like a 9-7 SEC record is a real possibility. Can Arkansas get in at 9-7? Maybe... but probably not. It will depend who they beat and how they finish. A win at Tennessee, Ole Miss or Mississippi State would go a very long way. As for Ole Miss, what is going on? My guess is that they're struggling to deal with the pressure of being good. Once you pull off a few upsets and get that respect from the national media, suddenly everything gets a bit more stressful. There's just a bit too much pressure. You can see it in this game, where the difference in the game was nothing other than foul shooting. The Rebs hit 52% from the line, and that doesn't even count the misses on the front end of one-and-ones (which I still believe should be accounted for in foul shooting percentages somehow - since it represents extra points left on the table). They do get a chance to get their act together Monday when they welcome in a patsy to slaughter (Presbyterian and their RPI of 325). Ole Miss does have good computer numbers, and they already have wins over Florida and Vanderbilt to brag about. So they are much more likely to get in as a 9-7 team than Arkansas. But they've got to get there, and it's going to be tough with a 3-5 start.

Maryland 84, North Carolina State 70
Maryland moves into third place in the ACC with this solid offensive performance against NC State. State's defense has struggled for a while, but it's more than mediocre defense when a team shoots 58% from the field, 60% from behind the arc and 86% from the line. Maryland established a solid lead early in the second half of this one and just never let up. They just weren't missing. The computer numbers are still mediocre, but that 6-3 ACC record looks very good right now. Maryland's computer numbers are based on a weak out-of-conference schedule and performance (overall out-of-conference RPI of 110th in the nation). But that will improve as they keep winning and the strength of schedule keeps getting better. They head to Duke next, but after that the schedule gets really easy (at least as far as an ACC schedule can be). And they have that UNC win to brag about. I'm going to move these guys back into the BP65 after tonight's games are over, because they've definitely earned it. As for NC State, this was not what they need. Their overall resume has high points and low points, and they look like a team that is going to go the whole way as a bubble team. This loss drops them to 4-5 in the ACC, and they still have to play the mighty duo of Duke and UNC. If they can get to 8-8 in conference, they'll be a Tournament team. If they're only 7-9, it's too early to tell. They could really use a win over one of the aforementioned duo.