Sunday, February 10, 2008

W-5 BP65

Please note, this is the last of the once-per-week BP65s. From now until the final week of the regular season, brackets will come out twice weekly. So, the next bracket will be out by sometime Thursday morning. Without further ado, the new bracket:

1. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. North Carolina
2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10)

3. Texas
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. UConn
3. Wisconsin

4. Indiana
4. Stanford
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. Washington State

5. BUTLER (HORIZON)
5. Notre Dame
5. Texas A&M
5. Clemson

6. Kansas State
6. USC
6. Louisville
6. Vanderbilt

7. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. Marquette
7. Purdue
7. Florida

8. Pittsburgh
8. BYU (MWC)
8. Arizona
8. Rhode Island

9. Syracuse
9. Saint Mary's
9. Baylor
9. Ohio State

10. Mississippi
10. West Virginia
10. Maryland
10. Creighton

11. Arkansas
11. Oregon
11. Oklahoma
11. NC State

12. UNLV
12. Boston College
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. KENT STATE (MAC)

13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. NEVADA (WAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CSU NORTHRIDGE (BIG WEST)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. HAMPTON (MEAC)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Dayton, Massachusetts, Houston, Illinois State, Mississippi State, South Alabama

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Joseph's, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Minnesota, Missouri, VCU, San Diego State, Arizona State, Kentucky, Utah State

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Charlotte, Duquesne, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, UAB, Ohio, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, California

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Virginia, St. Louis, Temple, Depaul, Iowa State, Nebraska, Pacific, Tulane, UTEP, Wright State, Akron, Miami (OH), Bradley, Northern Iowa, Utah, Washington, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, San Diego, Boise State

10 comments:

Aaron said...

Looks good but you still have Louisville at a 6 seed after the big win last night? They looked strong to me but I don't know the Big East that well. Also I'm from Raleigh and I really don't think NCSU will make the cut this year. BC on the Road, then Clemson, Carolina, and Duke. Yikes. We'll see I guess.

Beat The Experts said...

I agree with you Aaron. Six teams from the ACC looks very unlikely at this point. The conference RPI is number 1 due to Duke and North Carolina but the rest of the league is mediocre at best. Expect 3-5 from the ACC this year. I think the number will end up being 4, however.

Jeff said...

Aaron, you're right that their schedule is tough. When is anybody's ACC schedule every easy? But I look at that schedule and I see an 8-8 finish. And I think 8-8 will be enough for a team that has a solid overall resume and excellent computer numbers.


Remember, there's no way that the ACC only gets three teams - that's just silly. Even if Duke & UNC go undefeated against all other opponents the rest of the way, somebody has to win the other games. Somebody is going to get to 10-6. A few teams have to get to 9-7 or 10-6, and it's hard to imagine a team getting to nine wins in the ACC and not making the Tournament (other than Georgia Tech).


An 8-8 ACC record without any glamor wins may not look that special, but there is a lot of parity this year. Who are you putting in instead? Kentucky? Houston? Mississippi State? It's not like you have a lot of resumes that really blow you away in the first bunch of teams out of the Tournament right now.


As for Louisville, the win last night was very nice, but the rest of the resume still is a bit lacking in some areas. A record of 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 is nice, but it's nothing that makes you say this team needs to be a top 3 or 4 seed. The RPI is nice, although the Sagarin rating is only 23rd. Most importantly, I think they have a few losses to go. They're due for a letdown game after the Georgetown win - so I would expect them to lose one of their next two at Depaul and Providence. Overall, I'd be surprised if they finish better than 12-6. I think that smells like a 5 or a 6 seed to me. Not a 3 or a 4.

Anonymous said...

Arkansas at an 11 seed?? Are you serious? After the last 4 games don't you think they should get a little respect.

Jeff said...

I'm not here to dole out "respect" because a team is on a hot streak. If you read my recent posts you will see my talk about Arkansas. Basically, their overall resume isn't that great - what is excellent is that 6-2 SEC record. They need to keep winning their conference games.


The problem is that the schedule gets very tough. They have to head to Tennessee, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Kentucky. And they host Vanderbilt as well. Do you really think they're finishing better than 10-6? And if they slip to 9-7, do they even make the Tournament?

I think I'd take an 8-8 ACC over a 9-7 SEC team in a second, all else equal. And Arkansas doesn't have that glamor win to make a difference, so they would miss out on the Tournament against (for example) an 8-8 NC State team.



If you're an Arkansas fan, don't worry about "respect". What you have to worry about is continuing this hot streak and racking up wins. Get that tenth SEC win to get into the Tournament.

Derek said...

I see you've finally come around on Rhode Island Jeff...welcome to what we've known all along.

As a Syracuse alum, I'm happy to see that you have them in the tournament, but they have a really tough schedule the rest of the way. I see them finishing with 19 wins, 20 at the most, I'm not sure that gets it done. Your thoughts...they are only playing 7 guys right now and they are so young

Jeff said...

As I've been saying all season long - the Atlantic Ten should get two teams into the Tournament. Earlier in the season it seemed like Dayton was the second best team in the conference. For the past few weeks it's looked like Rhode Island, so I've moved them into the Tournament and taken Dayton out.

As for Syracuse, I think they should get to 10-8. Even if they're 9-9, there's a good chance that they still sneak in. There just aren't a lot of good resumes out there.

Derek said...

I hope you are right about the Cuse, but right now they have NO quality wins in my opinion. UVA was supposed to be their big OOC road win, but they've folded up like a cheap suitcase. Right now I think the St. Joes win is their best, which isn't saying much. I think the blowout loss at WVU could really hurt them. I guess if they beat GTown on Sat, that might go a long way towards helping. Then again, they pummelled GTown last year and won 5 out of 7 to end the season and we all know what happened.

At least they pretty much control their own destiny and they have a better SOS and RPI than last year, if that still matters anymore.

Anonymous said...

The A-10 will get at least three, maybe even four teams in to the Dance. Your bias against the conference is blatantly obvious. I (and a few others, it seems) are going to keep anonymously trolling your blog until you give the conference the respect that it deserves.

Jeff said...

The "trolls", as you correctly put it, are always anonymous. That's so that they don't have to stand up for their assertions when they are proved false.


I've been accused of having bias for or against about 15 different conferences at this point. I must have some pent-up aggression for picking so many conferences and teams to bash irrationally...

In reality, it's natural for fans of long-denigrated conferences/teams to get over-excited when they finally see results. A-10 fans see those high RPI numbers and delude themselves into thinking that the Selection Committee will actually care.

The fact is that it's extraordinarily unlikely that anybody will get out of the A-10 with a 9-7 record. And who will get to 10-6, other than Rhode Island and Xavier? The only of the bubble teams with a decent shot is St. Joe's. And St. Joe's has one of the weaker out-of-conference resumes and schedules, so they might not get into the Tournament with a 10-6 anyway.


Can anybody think of an example in the modern era in which a mid-major team got an at-large seed with a 9-7 conference record? I can't.