Wrapping Up Thursday

Before I get to the rest of Thursday night's games, I have two other quick links to get to:

First, Bob Knight isn't the only coaching change at a BCS conference school. LSU coach John Brady was fired earlier today. A pretty shocking drop from grace from a coach who was fawned over as he led LSU to the Final Four less than two years ago. I can't explain exactly what has happened to that team, but it's obviously mental. They had a ton of talent last year, not only Glen Davis, and yet they weren't even that close to making the Tournament. And this year they are just atrocious, despite a series of solid recruiting classes. Clearly there is something going on - maybe there strife in the locker room, maybe a couple of the kids can't get along, maybe they just have a bad chemistry mix in general. Either way, it will remain to be seen whether the firing of Brady will lead to a turn around. This year is obviously lost, but there's no reason that this team can't make the Tournament next season if they can get their act together.

Secondly, I want to explain why I've had so much Atlantic Ten coverage compared to the other leading mid-major conferences (MVC, WCC, etc). It just seems like every year or two a fad gets developed in sports media, and it just takes over analysis. Sports writers, in general, suffer from far too much group-think. And this year, the fad that has gotten out of control is the Atlantic Ten, due entirely to their inflated ratings in the flawed (and largely irrelevant) RPI. The more important rankings (Sagarin, and to a lesser extend Pomeroy) both put the teams back where they deserve. But too many people can't get past the RPI. It was silly when people suggested four Atlantic Ten teams making the Tournament, and then I couldn't believe when some actually suggested five. And just yesterday I discovered a jaw-dropping six Atlantic Ten teams in Jerry Palm's bracket here. People just need to settle down with all of this, and look beyond the RPI. Right now, it seems clear that Xavier is the only team that is really "safe" for the Tournament. They haven't locked up a bid, but the only way they're getting denied is if they have a total collapse down the stretch. After that you have the pack of Dayton, Rhode Island and UMass. These three teams are possibly fighting for one bid, although it's possible that two will sneak in to bring the A-10 Tournament delegation to three. It's just unrealistic to expect all of them to get in. After that you have St. Joe's, which would have no chance at an at-large bid if the season ended now, but still has a shot to finish strong and move past the aforementioned troika. After that, I just don't see any realistic shot for anybody else. It's possible for a team like Charlotte to get hot and win five straight. But barring a miracle run like that, I just don't see any other A-10 teams with a good chance.

Anyway... let's get back to the action from last night:

#13 Indiana 83, Illinois 79, 2OT
I talked about this game a bit last night while it was still going on. Even though the announcers refused to say anything, I was pretty disappointed in the level of abuse that Eric Gordon was getting from Illinois fans. Players back out of verbal commitments all the time, which is why they're different from signed commitments. And the only reason that it's a big deal is because Gordon is simply the most recent in a series of recruiting failures since Bill Self left. I think that the booing of Gordon actually distracted a lot of the Illini crowd from the fact that a game was going on, leading them to actually be pretty quiet on critical possessions late in the game where Gordon didn't have the ball. You also have to feel for Shaun Pruitt, who missed three different free throws that would have iced the game. This has been the season for Illinois - finding ways to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. This win keeps Indiana firmly in the Big Ten race, with a shot at moving its seed as high as a #2. The big game is next week when Wisconsin comes to town. The winner of that game might be the favorite to take the Big Ten title after Michigan State's slip-up against Penn State.

#4 UCLA 67, #17 Washington State 59
Finally a good performance out of Wazzu, which has just been struggling bitterly during the past few weeks. Too bad it came against a UCLA team that is just too good when they have a balanced offense. I don't think Washington State will drop out of the Top 25, especially if they take care of USC tomorrow. But seriously, what happened to the team that was 12-0 and a sleeper title pick just a few weeks ago? They are now 5-5 in the Pac-10, with any hopes at a good showing in the conference dashed. And there are no easy games in the Pac-10 (other than Oregon State), and so things aren't going to let up. Look at Washington State's remaining schedule and tell me that it's preposterous for them to finish 9-9, because in my mind it's a real possibility. I still think that this game should be slightly encouraging to Cougars fans in that it was their best performance in over two weeks. This team has a good coach and good talent, and they're always tough to beat at home. I think they should get to at least a 10-8 conference mark, and that should be enough for a decent seed. But the fact that it's only three weeks from March and this team hasn't even locked up a Tournament bid yet is a shocking turn of events for such a solid team.

USC 73, Washington 59
While Washington State is dropping, USC is zooming towards the top of the Pac-10. For the time being they are actually sitting alone in third place in the conference, behind only Top Ten squads UCLA and Stanford. The RPI still isn't great (37th) but that will continue to improve as the strength of schedule improves and the Mercer loss moves further away in the rear-view mirror. Obviously this team isn't going to compete for a Pac-10 title, but I think that they are in the running for something like a 4 seed in the Tournament if they continue to play strong down the stretch. Right now, I'd project an 11-7 finish and a trip to the Pac-10 Tournament Semifinals, which would mean an overall record of 21-11 and an RPI just inside the Top 30. That should be good enough for about a six seed. And obviously they can do better than that, that's simply where I'm projecting them at the moment.