Kelvin Sampson + Game Reviews

I'll be with you most of the day today, and I'll try to have a few updates. The biggest story of the past 24 hours, of course, was the resignation of Kelvin Sampson. I had said that the best case scenario as far as Indiana going far in the Tournament this season was to announce that Sampson was stepping down at the end of the season. The players have clearly rallied behind their embattled coach, and have been playing inspired ball since this scandal broke. Of course, as I noted, it might have been impossible to keep Sampson on that long. And if they had to get rid of him, it was ideal to do it as soon as possible. I had heard earlier this week that the most likely scenario was a ten-day suspension while the team reviewed this further, and that would have been a debacle. You can't have this hanging over the team, undermining the authority of the new boss, Dan Dakich. Now Dakich has a couple of weeks to get his team together before the Tournament. The question will be what happens to team chemistry. As I noted in the linked post above, this Indiana team is really in "one last run" mode. Their two big stars are playing their last season of college ball. It can be very hard for players to suddenly accept a new coach as they're heading into the homestretch. Dakich will have to walk a tight-rope, trying to get his kids to buy into a new scheme and leader, while still trying to rally them around the thought of winning for their former coach. There's no way to know how this is going to play out until we see the team play a game or two. There just isn't.

Now, a quick look at the biggest games played in the past two days:

UMass 98, Rhode Island 91
A very impressive road victory for a Massachusetts team that had been in a bit of a slump. I really like Chris Low's ability to get to the basket, and he should be a real star in the A-10 during his next and final season. The win helps keep UMass on the at-large border, as a loss would have dropped them to 5-7. They are now 6-6 with three very easy games in their final four. Even if they fall to Richmond, they'll be 9-7 overall. With the way that teams like Baylor, Arizona State and half the ACC have been falling - is it possible that a 9-7 UMass team could get a third Tournament bid for the Atlantic Ten? Absolutely. They'll just need to perform well in the A-10 Tournament while hoping to get some help in other conferences. As for that second Tournament bid, Rhode Island has by no means wrapped it up. After avoiding the upset bug that had hit Dayton and UMass, Rhode Island has now fallen into a slump at the worst time. Don't look now, but they've lost four out of five and are now 6-6. Worst of all, they have four lose-able games remaining. Not only is it extremely doubtful that they'll win all four, but there's a real possibility for a split. Hey, when you're 1-4 in your last five conference games, you can't expect too much out of your next four. As with all Atlantic Ten teams, the RPI is inflated for both of these teams. UMass is 31st and Rhode Island is 43rd. Meanwhile, the Sagarin Ratings have them 57th and 42nd, respectively. Pomeroy has them 76th and 67th, respectively. It will all come down to how these teams close. Both can wrap up a Tournament bid by winning out in the regular season. But both teams can easily play their way into the NIT.

La Salle 81, Dayton 78, OT
Sticking with the other big Atlantic Ten game, what a sad ending to this Dayton season. They are just finding ways to lose games, including missing the front-end of a 1-and-1 late in the second half of this one after LaSalle had to intentionally foul. In a testament to how many people are blinded by the RPI, some of the brackets that came out yesterday still had Dayton in the bracket. Thankfully, most bracketologists have finally figured out what I've been saying all along - RPI just isn't that important. If you can't win your conference games, you won't get a Tournament bid. Teams with 8-8, 9-9 (and even occasionally 7-9 and 8-10) records can get an at-large bid out of the biggest conferences. I can see .500 teams escaping the ACC, Big East and Pac-10 this season. But there won't be a .500 team getting out of the Big Ten, so there definitely won't be a .500 team getting out of the Atlantic Ten. Dayton's RPI is still 33rd (hence fooling some bracketologists), but they are now 5-7 in the A-10. And they end up with four tough games, including their next one at home against Xavier. Dayton has slipped to 68th in the Sagarin Ratings, and has absolutely got to beat Xavier if they want to even stay in the bubble picture. The odds of an 8-8 team escaping the A-10 are a million-to-one.

South Alabama 69, Western Kentucky 64
A game that Sun Belt fans have been looking forward to for about six weeks. Heck, I've been looking forward to this game for a couple of weeks. Of course, the Sun Belt gets no attention the national media, so I didn't even get to see highlights of this one on ESPN. Thankfully I have a sports package on my tv that had this game, and I was able to watch the entire second half live. I was very impressed at how the USA guards, especially Demetric Bennett, were able to blow by the WKU perimeter defenders and get to the basket. Western Kentucky was bigger inside, but they lost this one based on speed. And this all gets back to my conference preview, from more than ten months ago. I acknowledged that WKU would remain the best on the inside while USA would remain the best on the outside, but I predicted that WKU's improved perimeter play would be good enough to "run with" USA's guards. I said that they would negate USA's perimeter advantage enough for WKU's vast superiority on the inside to win the day. It turns out the WKU's guards aren't good enough to hang with USA's guards. And college basketball, in the modern era, has consistently been dominated by guard play. South Alabama's guards are better, and that's why they have earned the top spot in the Sun Belt. The real question at this point is whether the losses to North Texas and Middle Tennessee State will sink their at-large chances if Western Kentucky steals the automatic bid. On one hand you have the RPI of 27th. On the other you have a Sagarin of 46th. If South Alabama wins out before dropping the Sun Belt Tournament Finals to WKU, it's going to be very tough to keep them out. It's going to come down to what happens in other conferences. They'll have to be rooting for an upset-free Championship Week. The Sun Belt Tournament starts two weeks from today, so we'll revisit this issue if USA can't lock up the title.

USC 81, Oregon 75
OJ Mayo looked great in this one, following up a fairly mediocre stretch of basketball. After so much hype in the pre-season, Mayo's season has actually not been all that newsworthy. He's been overshadowed by some of the other freshmen. But he showed up at the right time, as USC has by no means wrapped up an at-large bid. This win keeps them from dropping below .500 in the Pac-10, and they now sit 7-6 overall with the embarrassing Oregon State coming to town next. They have a Sagarin ranking of 25th, and I think they just have to take care of business the rest of the way. As long as they can avoid any upsets the rest of the way, it's hard to see them getting left out of the Tournament. That's not true, however, of Oregon. This loss drops the Ducks to 6-8 just in time for a game at Pauley Pavilion. A loss there and they're going to need a miracle just to get back to 9-9 in the Pac-10. I think they're really playing themselves out of the Tournament at this point. Of course, a win over UCLA today and you can forget everything I just said. A 9-9 Pac-10 record and a first-round win in the Pac-10 Tournament will be enough to get Oregon 20 wins and a hard look on Selection Sunday. But if they're going to get there, today's game at UCLA is practically a must-win. And anytime you've got a "must-win" at the sixth-ranked team in the nation, you're in a tough spot.

Davidson 60, Winthrop 47
A good game, although somewhat unexpected in the way it played out. Not the choice of victor, of course. The way Davidson has been playing lately (especially Stephen Curry), they've been rolling through everybody. What was surprising was how tight the defense was, and how low the scoring became. Both of these teams rely on the three-pointer, and there were plenty of those in this one. But interestingly enough, each of these teams gave the formula for stopping the other in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams combined for 16-for-49 shooting from behind the arc, and neither of these teams are going to win a game against a BCS Conference power in March with that kind of outside shooting. Winthrop, of course, was playing for pride only. They entered this one with a Sagarin rating outside the Top 100, so any hopes of an at-large bid were long-ago dashed. But Davidson would be a really interesting at-large case if they get taken out in the SoCon Tournament Finals. The argument against an at-large bid would be obvious - they went 2-6 in the out-of-conference, and only 1-4 against the RPI Top 100 (and even that's deceptive, as their one win was at home over 95th ranked Georgia Southern). Yes, they put together a killer out-of-conference schedule, but they didn't win any of them. Of course, the counter is that they were in all of those games. They lost to UNC, Duke, NC State and UCLA by an average of under six points per game. They had the one slip-up very early on to Western Michigan, and a not-very-embarrassing loss to Charlotte. Other than that, the Wildcats have been absolutely perfect. Seventeen straight wins is impressive against any competition. The RPI is still weak, in the mid-40s, but the Sagarin is up to 32nd. If they win out, but fall in the Southern Finals, I don't think that's going to move much. It will still be in the 30s. They'll have broken a win streak of more than 20 games. The Selection Committee will probably want to reward them for playing such a tough out-of-conference slate. I think they'll get in. Although it will obviously depend on what happens in the other conference tournaments. It would certainly be the most interesting case on Selection Sunday. Suffice to say, I think I can speak for all bracketologists when I say that we're all rooting for Davidson to win the SoCon Tournament for the sake of minimizing out stress.