I know, a few hours later than usual:
1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. TENNESSEE (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. Stanford
3. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)
3. Louisville
4. UConn
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. Michigan State
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
5. Notre Dame
5. Purdue
5. Vanderbilt
5. Marquette
6. Washington State
6. Indiana
6. Clemson
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Kansas State
7. Arizona
7. Pittsburgh
7. Texas A&M
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. USC
8. West Virginia
8. Miami (Fl)
9. Mississippi State
9. Saint Mary's
9. Oklahoma
9. Syracuse
10. Maryland
10. Saint Joseph's
10. UNLV
10. Wake Forest
11. Baylor
11. Arkansas
11. Ohio State
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. KENT STATE (MAC)
12. Villanova
12. Florida
12. Houston
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)
16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Massachusetts, UAB, Illinois State, New Mexico, Kentucky
Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Virginia Tech, Dayton, Rhode Island, VCU, Creighton, Southern Illinois, Arizona State, Oregon, Mississippi, Western Kentucky
Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Temple, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Wright State, Ohio, San Diego State, California
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Charlotte, Duquesne, Minnesota, Missouri, Texas Tech, Bradley, Washington, San Diego, Boise State, Utah State
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
7 comments:
dude, you run an awesome blog. im a huge seton hall fan and have been riding a roller coaster ride of emtions for the past few months. can you include a link to my blog, www.setonia.blogspot.com
thanks a lot.
I'm always willing to do link exchanges - if you add me to a list of links, I will add you to my "partner websites".
really sad. Vandy knocks down the number one team in the nation, has only 4 losses and you put them a 5 seed? AND they were a sweet 16 team last year. i am not understanding the bias against the SEC. In the last 11 years, SEC has been tourney winner 3 times, same as ACC. Big Least did not get three NC's during that time period. Do we rate them high in basketball because they suck at football or because that is where the population centers are and we feel we have to hype them to get viewership?
I wonder if my anti-SEC bias by keeping Vanderbilt as a five balances out my pro-SEC bias by keeping Florida in the Tournament? I guess the jury's still out.
As much as Vanderbilt fans are ready to pencil their team into the Final Four, the fact is that they're vastly overrated. I talked about this earlier this year - they have simply won a lot of very close games. They aren't nearly as good as their record. You can see this in the Sagarin Ratings, where their ELO_CHESS is 17th, yet their PREDICTOR is 48th. Overall, Sagarin has them the 30th best team in the country, which isn't too out of line from Pomery, who has them 43rd.
"But none of those matter!", you might argue. Look at the RPI, look at the record! First of all, the RPI doesn't really matter. Second of all, the record against good teams isn't really all that great. They are now 9-4 against the RPI Top 100, which is nice but doesn't blow you away. Heck, even Indiana is 8-4.
The win over Tennessee was nice, but you forget the emotional levels involved. Tennessee was coming off the biggest win in school history - and even the talking heads on ESPN before the game noted that an upset was very likely in a potential let-down game at Vandy. But letdown games go both ways... I would bet money on Arkansas to beat Vanderbilt on Saturday.
The fact that Vanderbilt pulled off so many close wins doesn't take away from those wins resume-wise. But they mean that the team is simply overrated, and is due to disappoint Vandy fans in the future. Like I said, prepare for a loss at Arkansas. And prepare for the possibility of an early exit in the Tournament. I can think of 20 teams more likely to make the Final Four than the Commodores - regardless of the win over Tennessee.
As for however many national titles have been won by a conference since 1998... you should realize that is completely irrelevant to the Selection Committee. If you're considering conference strengths this year - obviously the Big East is superior to the SEC. Tennessee can play with anybody, but there is a pretty big step down to Vanderbilt, and then a massive step down to the rest of the conference. The Big East has six or seven elite teams. I'd classify Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette and possibly Pitt (when they're healthy and playing on all cylinders) as elite teams from the Big East, while only Vandy and the Vols are from the SEC. This is why a 13-5 record from a team like UConn or Louisville will count more than an 11-5 record for Vandy.
Jeff,
I'm just curious as to why you use Sagarin in your argument but say RPI doesn't matter. Not that I believe RPI to be important, but does the committee not use it?
And you're right, Vandy's nonconference was a joke, and they're probably overrated due to the win over Tennessee.
Well, there are two reasons. Personally, I know that the Sagarin Rating is better. It takes far more into account, and is impossible to actively control. The RPI is so simple that teams know exactly how to inflate their RPI. The key is to schedule a lot of teams ranked in the 75th-175th range. Don't schedule anybody with an RPI worse than 225. Your strength of schedule will be through the roof, and you should still win almost all of those games. Conferences like the Missouri Valley have perfected this skill.
Now, beyond that, one can simply look at brackets over the past few years. The Sagarin Ratings are much more lined up with the final seeds than the RPI. You would never see a team in the top 15 of the Sagarin Ratings getting an 8 seed (like Arizona last year) or a team in the top 25 missing the Tournament altogether (like Missouri State the year before).
I think the RPI is on the outs among those in the Selection Committee. I've seen some of them quoted saying that they can't even remember the word "RPI" getting mentioned in recent Selection Committee sessions. At this point, the RPI is just a crutch for lazy bracketologists. It's not good for picking a bracket.
I agree w/ most picks, would have Texas as the last #1 seed and move UCLA out...they did beat both UCLA/Tennessee...whoever draws Baylor as an 11 seed(assuming in tourney) did something to piss off the bb gods..as a Big 12 fan I can tell you that team can score in bunches and the guard play is awesome(defense, not so much) I know KU is a #2 seed but they have not beaten a ranked opponent all year, not sure tourney time away from Allen Fieldhouse will be any different..keep up the good blog
Post a Comment