Super Tuesday Update

A lot of people have been more focused on the Super Bowl and the Presidential primaries during the past couple of days, but there have been some important college basketball games played as well. For those who haven't been paying attention, here's what you missed:

#4 North Carolina 84, Florida State 73, OT
A huge missed opportunity for the Seminoles. When you're a bubble team in the ACC you get plenty of opportunities for big wins, but you've got to close the deal. Ryan Reid's three-pointer sent this game into overtime, but the Seminoles just ran out of gas. Now, they've fallen to a weak 2-6 in the ACC. The RPI has fallen out of the Top 80, and the only way the Seminoles are making the Tournament is if they get hot immediately. They play at Miami tomorrow, and that game is now nearly a must-win.

#13 Wisconsin 63, Minnesota 47
A huge win for the Badgers over their arch-rivals. Wisconsin has looked incredibly strong in recent games playing their patented strong-fundamentals style. Low turnovers, winning the foul battle, strong defense. They are now the highest-ranked team in the Big Ten, and are well-positioned for a surprising Big Ten championship. In fact, if they can somehow beat Indiana at Assembly Hall next week, I'd make them the solid favorites. Meanwhile, Minnesota is feeling the same thing that Florida State is - they missed a big opportunity. Minnesota has a strong record and they lack any bad losses. But they lack any kind of signature win. Nothing represents this Minnesota season better than this: The Gophers are 13-7: 13-0 against teams with an RPI of 101 or worse, and 0-7 against teams in the RPI Top 100. That's not the resume of a Tournament team. They need a big upset soon.

Louisville 71, #16 Marquette 57
A very impressive thumping by Louisville. This Louisville team reminds me a lot of last year's team, only that they're slightly more talented overall. Like last year's team, this year's Cardinals squad suffered a lot of injuries early in the season and created a lot of doubters. But just like last year's team, this year's team is finishing strong. And they got good early enough to keep themselves in play for a Big East title. They are 2 losses behind the Hoyas, but get their home-and-home, starting with a game Saturday at Freedom Hall. If Louisville loses, their Big East title hopes will be dashed. But with a win they could be in this until the final week of the season (they head to Georgetown in their regular season finale on March 8th). As for Marquette, they're still looking pretty safe for a Tournament bid, but their Big East title hopes are basically over. I understand that they were missing Dominic James for much of the game, but they need to learn to score without their star. Their biggest problem last year was that the offense was all Dominic James all the time. When he was off, the team couldn't score. James has better talent around him this year, but this isn't the first time that Marquette has struggled to score when their star wasn't all there.

St. Joseph's 77, Villanova 55
A very important win not just for St. Joe's, but for the entire Atlantic Ten. Villanova has been on a slump for quite a while, but unless they totally collapse this win will help the strength of schedule across the board in the A-10. St. Joe's still has an overall fairly interesting resume. The out-of-conference resume is fairly mediocre, but you can't ignore the 6-1 record in conference. The 4-4 record against the RPI Top 100 is good, although all of these top A-10 teams have inflated records against the RPI Top 100 by beating each other, and the Selection Committee will hold that against them. The Missouri Valley can tell A-10 fans all about it, because it's kept teams like Missouri State and Bradley out of the Tournament in recent years. Still, the 8-3 road record for St. Joe's is very solid. I doubt they'd be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but they are very viable if they continue to play well. If they finish 12-4 in the A-10 it will be tough to keep them out - depending on their computer numbers. Of course, as I said recently, St. Joe's schedule is backloaded. They still have Xavier twice, and they have to head to Dayton and Rhode Island. If they can find a way to split those four and win the rest of the games that they're supposed to win, they'll make the Tournament. If they lose three of four or get swept, the odds get longer.

#23 Saint Mary's 89, Gonzaga 85, OT
I don't know how many people stayed up late to watch this game on ESPN2, but it was a tight match the whole way. This is a huge game for a Saint Mary's team that is still trying to earn their way into the Tournament. The key has been their incredibly home-field advantage (12-0 this season). The 2-3 record in true road games is weak, but they haven't got many tough road games to go. They'll probably lose at Gonzaga, but they should be able to go 3-1 or so in the rest of their road match-ups. If they can take care of the rest of their home games, they'll be 24-5 and they'll have a share of the WCC crown. That should be enough for a Tournament bid. Gonzaga is still the best team in the conference, and I still project them to win the automatic bid and a higher seed. But Saint Mary's is looking better and better for an at-large bid by the day.