Friday, February 03, 2012

Indiana Falls On The Road Again

#22 Michigan 68, #20 Indiana 56
Michigan jumped out to an early 28-8 lead in this game, though Gus Johnson was calling it for Big Ten Network, so you knew Indiana was going to get back into the game. And if you think I'm kidding you must not get Big Ten Network, because they're actually running tv ads advertising how every game Gus Johnson has called this season has been exciting, and letting viewers know which game he'll be calling next. And Indiana did close the lead - all the way down to two points - but couldn't get closer than that. In my view, Indiana just once again allowed themselves to get pushed around on the road - they took too many jump shots and allowed Michigan to push their offense away from the hoop.

I'll bring up this stat again: Indiana has played 33 road Big Ten games under Tom Crean and gone 2-31, with the two wins coming over Penn State. They are 4-1 in home Big Ten games this season, but overall are now just 5-6 in conference play, and are being outscored by 0.04 PPP in conference play so far. That said, I'm not giving up on this Indiana team. I think they got a little bit too much hype after those big wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, and they're getting a little too much criticism for some close losses. The reality is that they've only been soundly beaten twice this whole season - on the road at Ohio State and Michigan State, the two best teams in the Big Ten. Every other game has been pretty close, and eventually Indiana is going to pull one of these out. And with their strong home court advantage, I doubt they'll lose more than one more home game the rest of the season. So I still expect them to be safely in the NCAA Tournament, and I think that they have as good of a chance to finish in fourth place in the Big Ten as anybody else (fourth place, and the final first round bye at the Big Ten tournament, appears to be between Indiana, Michigan, Illinois and Purdue).

Talking about that battle for fourth place, the team that is highest in the standings right now is Michigan (they're actually in second place right now, technically). And on a points per possession basis, Michigan's +0.05 PPP in conference play is fourth best in the conference, behind Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin, the three teams (in order) that I think are best in the Big Ten. But while Michigan has achieved more than Indiana in conference play so far, the reality is that their remaining schedule is much tougher. There's a good chance that their time in second place will cease before the end of the weekend, since they have to play at Michigan State on Sunday. It's a revenge game for Sparty, and they're claiming that Draymond Green will try to give it a go after hurting his knee on Tuesday.

Michigan will follow that Michigan State game with a road game at Nebraska on Wednesday. Indiana, meanwhile, will play at Purdue tomorrow before coming home to play Illinois and Northwestern.

Arkansas 82, Vanderbilt 74
This was an intriguing game between two teams that have been improving throughout the season and are looking to really break out. The difference in this game was a wild stretch early in the second half when Arkansas hit 5-for-6 behind the arc during a six possession stretch, an incredible 2.5 PPP. What was most interesting about this game, to me, was that Arkansas didn't win it the way you'd think they would have. With Mike Anderson leading a ferocious Arkansas press (they're leading the SEC in turnovers forced and steals per game... by far) and Vanderbilt struggling mightily against the press (they have allowed steals on 11.9% of possessions this season, which is 309th best in the nation), you would have assumed that if Arkansas won it would have been because they turned the game into a layup line. But Arkansas had only five steals and forced only 11 turnovers, well below their average. The Razorbacks offense just showed up big time in a big game.

Because Arkansas is likely to be on the bubble (or close to it) on Selection Sunday, this isn't a "bad" loss for Vanderbilt. They are now 5-2 in SEC play with wins over Marquette, NC State and Alabama, along with a bad loss to Indiana State. They are 7-5 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 33rd. If the season ended now they'd only be a 7-9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but even with this loss they're on an upward trajectory. The Commodores have a chance for a huge win if they can get it tomorrow at Florida. After that they'll come home to face LSU, and then have a monster home game against Kentucky next Saturday.

Arkansas is now 4-3 in SEC play and 16-6 overall, with wins over Michigan, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, along with bad losses to Houston and Ole Miss. Their RPI is up to 50th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 54th. If the season ended now I'm pretty sure they'd be NIT bound, but they'd be on the bubble at least. They're heading into a key stretch now, playing on the road at LSU tomorrow and at Georgia on Wednesday. They're better than both LSU and Georgia, but Arkansas has struggled mightily on the road this season (0-5 in true road games). They need to at least split those two games. And preferably, they need to take care of Georgia, because they're more likely than LSU to end up an RPI 100+ team on Selection Sunday.

Southern Miss 75, Memphis 72
This is the latest instance of dumb court storming. Yes, I know Memphis has dominated the conference since the Big East looted it, and yes I know that Southern Miss had wanted badly to get revenge for some recent close losses (including a two point loss earlier this season in Memphis, and a three point loss in last year's Conference USA tournament). But still, there were no titles on the line here, and Southern Miss was a three point favorite in Vegas. The court storming was a bad decision.

As for the game itself, I felt like both the good and the bad of what Southern Miss does was on display. They play with great energy, particularly at home, and they ended up with ten more offensive rebounds than Memphis. But at the same time, they struggle to stay disciplined, particularly on defense. The Memphis backcourt is terrific playing one-on-one ball on the perimeter, and Southern Miss often did an atrocious job with help defense, leading to an awful lot of Memphis layups (Memphis hit 64.7% of their two-pointers in this game). We've seen over and over again under Josh Pastner that the Memphis offense grinds to a halt if you play sound help defense and don't give them layups, but Southern Miss couldn't make it happen.

With this win, Southern Miss grabs a one game lead in the Conference USA standings. They've won 16 of their last 17 games. At the same time, they still have some land mines left on their schedule, so by no means do they have the conference regular season title locked up. Their next game will be Wednesday at UAB.

As for Memphis, it's worth taking a look at their at-large hopes. They're only 15-7 overall, but 6-2 in conference play with wins over Southern Miss, Belmont, Marshall and Miami (Fl), along with a bad loss to UCF. They are a brutal 1-6 against the RPI Top 50, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 34th. If the season ended now I think they'd be in the NCAA Tournament, but only barely. They have a key game tomorrow against Xavier. A win there and an 11-5 conference record, along with a decent performance in the C-USA tournament, will probably put them in the NCAA Tournament.

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