Sunday, February 19, 2012

What Does Murray St's Win Over St Mary's Mean?

#14 Murray State 65, #16 Saint Mary's 51
In some sense, it's unfortunate that Murray State didn't get to face a full strength St. Marys team here. Stephen Holt missed the game with injury, Matthew Dellavedova was somewhat hobbled by an ankle injury (until game day, it still wasn't certain whether he would play at all), and then Rob Jones spent half the game on the bench with foul trouble. Players like Beau Levesque and Mitchell Young had to play major minutes for the Gaels. Murray State's Isaiah Canaan seemed unphased by all of the All-American hype, scoring 23 points on 9-for-13 shooting. As superb as Canaan's stats have been this year, you want to see what he can do against elite defenders, and it's just too bad that Holt (the best St. Mary's perimeter defender) missed the game.

Murray State is going to remain an enigma among the statistically-inclined community. The computers say that they're no better than the 2009-10 Murray State team, which isn't really an insult. That Murray State team went 27-4, but stayed anonymous before shocking Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tournament. Why was that team anonymous while this team has been ranked as high as 7th in the polls? The 2009-10 team lost by five points to their one elite regular season opponent (California). This year's team beat Southern Miss in overtime, and beat Memphis by four. Flip a little bit of luck in both of those games and Murray State is 24-3 and relatively anonymous. What's the difference between Murray State and, say, Middle Tennessee State or Iona or even Oral Roberts? A little bit of luck at the right time. They're all good teams.

I don't think there's any real risk of Murray State falling to the bubble. They'll play on the road at Tennessee State on Thursday, and then at Tennessee Tech next Saturday. A split in those games should be enough. A sweep will definitely lock them into the Field of 68, regardless of what happens in the OVC tournament.

St. Mary's has suddenly lost three out of four to fall to 23-5. They're 7-5 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 30th, so the bubble isn't an immediate concern. The WCC title is, however. They're one game clear of Gonzaga with two road games left. They will have to navigate games at Portland (on Thursday) and at San Francisco (next Saturday).

San Francisco 66, #24 Gonzaga 65
The reason why St. Mary's is a game clear of Gonzaga in the WCC is because of this shocking upset. And once again we saw that a team which quickly took the ball out of bounds with seconds to go and attacked the length of the court, rather than calling a timeout so the head coach could set up a final play, saw success. It was Rashad Green that went the length of the floor to score the game winner on a leaner for San Francisco. I think too many coaches over-coach the final few seconds of games - let the kids play and don't let the defense set up.

How did this game end up so close? San Francisco is one of those teams that plays aggressive, but unsound defense. If they fall behind early and lose intensity then they can get run off the floor. They are allowing a horrible 56.0 eFG% in conference play, though they're leading the conference with 17.7 turnovers forced per game. If they can get into a game early then their energy and pressure can get opposing teams to crack, and that's what happened to Gonzaga. The Zags committed 21 turnovers, and couldn't get any offensive flow.

Gonzaga falls to 21-5 with this loss, and 7-4 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 25th. But with this loss they are now a game back of St. Mary's in the standings, with a more difficult schedule. They will have to play BYU on Thursday, before completing WCC regular season play at San Diego on Saturday.

This win locks San Francisco in as the 5 seed for the WCC tournament. They'll play either Santa Clara, Portland or Pepperdine in their first WCC tournament game. Before they get there they'll have to play St. Mary's at home next Saturday. It's meaningless in the standings, but a win will give them another boost of confidence.

Northwestern 64, Minnesota 53
This was a big day for John Shurna. First, he passed Billy McKinney and became Northwestern's all-time leading scorer. More importantly, he led Northwestern to a crucial win in a bubble battle. Shurna was actually more of a role player here than a scorer, dishing out 5 assists and also collecting 5 blocks on defense. Dave Sobolewski scored 22 points, including 4-for-5 behind the arc. And this was a must-win for Northwestern, coming in at 5-8.

Northwestern is only 16-10 overall, but against a brutally tough schedule. They have wins over Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota and Seton Hall, with zero bad losses. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 39th. If the season ended now they'd be an NCAA Tournament team. But the concern is that conference record. To have a good chance on Selection Sunday they'll need to finish at least 8-10 in conference play. With this win that means they only need to split their final four regular season games. Their next game will be on Tuesday against Michigan.

Minnesota has a nice set of wins and solid computer numbers. They have victories over Indiana, Northwestern and Illinois, and only three iffy losses (two losses to Iowa and a loss to Dayton). They are 5-8 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 51st. Those numbers alone would put Minnesota right on the Tournament bubble. The problem is, they're now 5-9 in Big Ten play. As is the case with Northwestern, the Gophers will need to get to 8-10 to have a good shot on Selection Sunday. That means winning three of their final four games against a very tough schedule. Their game on Wednesday at the Barn against Michigan State is almost a must-win.

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