Saturday, February 11, 2012

Creighton Can't Shoot Again, And Loses Again

Wichita State 89, #15 Creighton 68
Creighton is a very simple team to describe - they hit shots. They are, even at this moment, leading the nation in eFG% (58.5). But other than shooting the ball, they're not a great team. They don't have a great point guard, they aren't a great rebounding team, and their defense is quite mediocre (119th in Pomeroy defensive efficiency, and that will surely drop when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning). And that's a problem, because every once in a while the shots aren't going to fall. They've had an eFG% under 50.0 five times this season and lost four of them. And what's worse is that three of those have been their last three games. In fact, their two worst shooting performances of the year have been their last two games. Even Doug McDermott has struggled, hitting just 3-for-10 behind the arc in this three game slump.

Despite a poll-biased media saying it's shocking Wichita State won this game, the reality is that the computer polls all rate Wichita State as the better team. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rated them as one of the 15 best teams in the nation coming into this game. But to win by 21 points? That's a pretty amazing margin of victory. Joe Ragland was the MVP, hitting 9-for-12 from the field (24 points) and adding six assists with only a single turnover.

Despite everything I said about Wichita State, I have them as an 8 seed in my bracket, and it's because of a lack of quality wins. This is their second quality win, to go with a win over UNLV. They also have a bad loss to Drake, and are only 2-3 against the RPI Top 50. But this win should move their Sagarin ELO_CHESS up to around 20th, and I will move them up in my bracket. And they actually can improve their computer ratings even further with a slew of decent teams left on their schedule. They'll play Missouri State on Wednesday, and will head to Davidson for a Bracketbusters game on Saturday. Unless they have a horrific slump to end their regular season they will be the #1 seed in Arch Madness.

Creighton's remaining schedule is not that tough, but they have to figure out what's going wrong with their offense, and they need to figure out how to win games when they're not shooting the ball well. They also have to be careful because they're only a loss or two away from people wondering if they're a bubble team. Their next game will be Tuesday night at Southern Illinois.

#16 UNLV 65, #14 San Diego State 63
When San Diego State beat UNLV a month ago, the media conversation was about how they were the best team in the Mountain West, and whether they were a Top Ten team nationally or not. Now that UNLV has won this game at their place, everybody seems to think UNLV is the best team in the conference. But the reality is the opposite. San Diego State won that game at home needing a buzzer beater, despite terribly biased reffing in their favor (including a missed traveling violation on the game winning shot). Here's what I wrote about that game at the time. But here? San Diego State fought back to make this a really close game down the stretch, and would have won if their execution hadn't gone to hell in the final minute. They played really well, and would have won with slightly more reffing in their favor, or with another lucky break or two in their favor.

The biggest issue for UNLV in this game was that their shooting went cold - they hit only 6-for-25 on threes. This has been an issue with UNLV for a couple of years now. They take too many threes, and while in general they shoot well they can also get streaky. And when they're not hitting their outside shots, they will keep bricking them and will not adjust. The star for San Diego State was Chase Tapley, who scored 22 points with 4-for-7 three-point shooting, making every big play down the stretch. But as I said, execution fell apart in the final minute: SDSU had turnovers on all three offensive possessions, and lost another possession when they allowed UNLV to get an offensive board off a Chace Stanback missed free throw.

The Mountain West has now gotten a whole lot tighter. New Mexico, San Diego State and UNLV are all tied at 6-2, and Colorado State can move to 5-3 if they can beat TCU (that game is in progress as I type this). The computers like New Mexico and UNLV much more than San Diego State, but that's colored by the fact that this very young San Diego State team took a while to get going this season. If we just look at conference play, San Diego State is still in third place, but things are tighter than Pomeroy's ratings suggest:

+0.18 New Mexico
+0.12 UNLV
+0.06 San Diego State
+0.03 Wyoming
-0.02 Colorado State

UNLV did wipe the floor with New Mexico in Vegas. The return game will be next Saturday, and that game could decide the Mountain West's regular season champion. It could also come down to San Diego State's home game against New Mexico, which is coming up on Wednesday night. But in my opinion, UNLV has played a tougher schedule than New Mexico so far, and just from the eye test I think they're better than New Mexico. So they are still my pick to win the Mountain West tournament. Their next game will be Tuesday night at TCU.

Tennessee 75, #7 Florida 70
Tennessee is 2-9 this season against teams in the RPI Top 100 not named Florida, and they're 2-0 against Florida. Makes sense. To be fair, Florida was short-handed here. Cody Larson was ill and didn't play, and Mike Rosario was hurt. Meanwhile, Will Yeguette had a scary fall early in the game on his head that apparently knocked him out briefly, and he didn't return. That basically left lightly used Casey Prather and Scottie Wilbekin as the only real subs that Billy Donovan had to work with. And once again, Florida spent basically every possession with their guards launching jump shots. They go long stretches without even throwing the ball into the paint. And that's just not the formula for winning consistently at the highest levels of Division I.

Jordan McRae scored only 12 points, but 10 of them came during the 33-18 run that Tennessee had to open up the game. Florida made a comeback in the second half, but just seemed to run out of steam. Their lack of depth had to be a factor in that. Trae Golden had 17 points and 7 assists for Tennessee.

This loss drops Florida to 7-3 in SEC play, which probably ends whatever tenuous hopes they had of a share of the SEC title. Of more concern is that they have as many RPI 100+ losses (3) as RPI Top 50 wins. Not only that, but they have zero RPI Top 50 wins away from home, and no wins against a team in the RPI Top 25 at any location. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to fall to close to 30th after this loss. I don't think they'll fall to the bubble, but I do think that their resume is suddenly looking a little soft. And they head on the road next week to play Alabama and Arkansas. The one piece of good news is that Alabama might be without several of their players from suspension (it's not clear yet if the players that were suspended today against LSU will be allowed back for Tuesday's game).

Tennessee moves to 5-5 in SEC play, which puts them into a tie for fifth, and only a game behind fourth place. Recall that the top four teams will receive byes in the SEC tournament. I don't think Tennessee will actually get there, but they are playing better basketball than they were a couple of months ago. Their next game will be Wednesday night against Arkansas.

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