Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Kansas State Falls To Kansas: Are They On The Bubble?

#5 Kansas 59, Kansas State 53
Kansas State had their chances in this game, but just couldn't hit baskets. And down the stretch, Jeff Withey had a whole bunch of big plays on both ends of the floor. You would have been laughed out of a room three months ago if you tried to argue that Jeff Withey was the second best player on the Kansas roster, but it's honestly hard at this point to argue that he's not. Withey had 18 points, 11 rebounds and 9 blocks here, including a crucial block on an Angel Rodriguez shot with around 35 seconds to go. Tyshawn Taylor is a more explosive scorer, but he's also dreadfully inconsistent and turnover prone, and not nearly the defensive presence that Withey is. It's common for big men to take a few years to develop, even highly touted recruits like Withey was when he originally signed with Arizona, but it's been a remarkable improvement for him since last season. Thomas Robinson is the best player on the team, but Withey is the biggest reason why Kansas has overachieved and is the best team in the Big 12.

If Kansas State players not named Jamar Samuels hadn't shot 0-for-12 behind the arc then maybe they would have won this game. And that stings considering how important this loss is. Not only did they fall to their biggest rival, but they miss a chance to move firmly into the NCAA Tournament field. Instead, they're 6-7 and staring at road games against Missouri and Baylor. Without a big upset they're going to find themselves at 6-9. If Kansas State can get to 9-9 then they'll probably be an NCAA Tournament team. If they end up 8-10 then they'll enter the Big 12 tournament with work left to do.

The big game looming for Kansas is their home game on February 25th against Missouri. A win there will effectively clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title. Achieving that and winning the Big 12 tournament will earn Kansas a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Even a loss in the Big 12 tournament probably wouldn't drop them below a 2 seed. In the meanwhile, they shouldn't have too much trouble with their upcoming game, at home against Texas Tech on on Saturday. The Jayhawks might be 30 point favorites for that game.

Purdue 87, Northwestern 77
Purdue and Northwestern are arguably the two worst defenses in the Big Ten (only Iowa has allowed more PPP in conference play), and this game was anything but a defensive clinic. The two teams scored 107 points in the second half, and combined for 1.22 PPP in the game. Purdue, as a team, had a 4.0 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is one of the best I can ever recall seeing (sorry I can't get statistics on that, but I don't know of any website that keeps track of that). I give credit to Northwestern for doing what I've encouraged them to do, which is to shove the ball into the hands of John Shurna and to just let him score, even if it messes up Bill Carmody's offensive system. Shurna had 30 points on 11-for-20 shooting. But they couldn't get a stop defensively, and that did them in.

Purdue is now 6-6 in Big Ten play with wins over Michigan State and Illinois, along with bad losses to Penn State and Butler. They are 5-6 against the RPI Top 50 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 41st. If they can get to 9-9 in conference play, which I think they will, then they should be in the NCAA Tournament. Their next game will be on the road at Illinois, and on Sunday they'll be at home for a huge game against Michigan State.

Northwestern has a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 36th, and even in the 64/65 team bracket it was extremely rare for a team with an ELO_CHESS that high to get left out of the Tournament field. But they're only 5-7 in Big Ten play, and will need to get to at least 8-10 to have a real chance. No team has ever finish four games under .500 in conference play and earned an at-large bid. Their next game will be on the road at Indiana. If they lose there then they'll come home for a pair of huge games against Minnesota and Michigan, two other bubble teams that will be desperate for wins.

#2 Syracuse 52, #18 Louisville 51
There's no question that Peyton Siva has regressed this season, and that fact was really on display here. With Syracuse finishing with by far their worst shooting night of the season (a 35.3 eFG% - their previous worse had been a 41.3 eFG% against Georgetown), the game was ripe for the taking. Louisville actually played their best ball late in the first half and early in the second half when Siva was sitting on the bench with three fouls. But he finished with just 4 assists and 5 turnovers, including a killer turnover on Louisville's last real shot at the win. When your team plays suffocating defense like Louisville does, the last thing you need is a sloppy point guard that forces things and turns the ball over, but that's exactly what Louisville has. Of course, Siva has the raw talent to carry Louisville to a nice NCAA Tournament run, but he hasn't shown the consistency to do that.

Syracuse is two games clear in the Big East standings with all of the tiebreakers in their favor, so they've basically clinched the regular season title. Throw in a Big East tournament title and they'll be a lock for a 1 seed in March. Their next game will be Sunday at Rutgers. After that they'll come home for USF.

This loss snaps Louisville's six-game winning streak. They're now 8-5 in Big East play with an 8-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 21st. Their next game will be on Saturday at DePaul, and then their final stretch will be pretty tough, including their road game at the Carrier Dome to end the regular season on March 3rd. The tough schedule represents a good opportunity for Louisville to build on their Tournament seed, which would be a 5 or 6 if the season ended now.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Purdue has not beaten Michigan St. They got thumped in East Lansing and face them in Mackey this weekend. Purdue has B10 wins over:

Iowa x 2
Northwestern x 2
Illinois home
Minnesota away

Jeff said...

You're right. I don't know how I made that goof. That's what I get for blogging late at night...

David Mann said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

The 97-98 Florida State Seminoles went 6-10 in the ACC. They also lost their first ACC tournament game. They not only made the NCAA tourney, but advanced to the 2nd round.

Jeff said...

Thanks. For some reason I don't remember that.