San Diego Upsets BYU

San Diego 74, BYU 68
BYU's soft schedule and lack of big wins has had them teetering on the bubble for weeks now, which makes this a very costly loss. Tyler Haws did all he could, pouring in 27 points on 10-for-17 shooting, but he didn't get a lot of help. Matt Carlino had a tough 4-for-14 shooting day with 5 turnovers and only 4 assists, while BYU's defense got broken down all night (San Diego hit 56.4% of their two-point attempts). San Diego was led by Johnny Dee's 19 points on 6-for-10 shooting.

BYU is still 18-7 overall after this loss, and 8-3 in conference play, but they are a brutal 0-6 against the RPI Top 90 (they do have a pair of wins over RPI #92 Santa Clara). So despite having an RPI that is 45th and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that was 45th entering tonight, I don't think there's any question that BYU would be NIT-bound if the season ended now. They will get a home game against Gonzaga and a road game at St. Mary's later this season, and they really must at least split those two, and also can't afford any more bad losses. They can still earn an at-large bid, but they have a whole lot of work left to do. Their next game will be against San Francisco on Saturday.

This win continues San Diego's climb out of the mire of that point-shaving scandal and some brutally terrible teams. It was only five seasons ago that they earned a 13 seed in the NCAA Tournament and knocked off UConn in a thrilling first round game, but that point-shaving scandal led the team bottoming out with a 6-24 record in 2010-11. They were a much more respectable 7-9 in WCC play last season, and this win moves them to 6-4 in conference play and 13-12 overall this season. Their next game will be on Saturday, against St. Mary's.

#4 Duke 98, North Carolina State 85
Duke's struggles since losing Ryan Kelly have surprisingly had more to do with defense than offense. They only allowed 0.77 PPP in a pair of ACC games with Kelly, and hadn't allowed a single team to score more than 1.05 PPP in any game all season long. But without Kelly, they have allowed five of seven opponents to break 1 PPP, including a total of 1.17 PPP in a pair of games against NC State. And despite winning this game, defense has to be a serious concern.

Duke looked to be running away with this game early. They were a white hot 61% from the field, including 10-for-17 behind the arc, in a 58 point first half. But their 22 point lead started to fade away in the second half as they just could not get a stop. They allowed 48 second half points and actually allowed NC State to get as close as eight points with just over a minute to go. Before the game I think Duke would have happily signed up for a 13 point win, but after the game this win just does not feel that good.

It remains to be seen if Kelly will return at all this season, and there's no question that they need to him to make a national title run. They probably need him just to get past Miami in the ACC tournament. But worst case scenario is not as bad as some seem to think... it's very unlikely that they'll drop below a 3 seed, even if they don't get Kelly back at all. Now 7-2 in ACC play, they'll play at Boston College on Sunday.

NC State has lost three straight games to fall to 5-5 in ACC play, and they desperately need the return of Lorenzo Brown. Their bench is too short without him. Six players ate up all but two minutes of this game for the Wolfpack. NC State's RPI is still 19th, but they are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100. I think they need to get to 11-7 in ACC play to lock up an NCAA Tournament bid. At 10-8 they'll still be in good shape, but could fall to the NIT if they go one-and-done in the ACC tournament. Their next game will be on Sunday, at Clemson.

Colorado 48, #19 Oregon 47
No, I have no idea how Oregon is still ranked. I get that they entered this week with a shiny 18-4 won-loss record, but it came against a joke of a schedule. And they have only one good win (Arizona) to go with bad losses to UTEP and California (if you count California as a bad loss). And entering this game 5-2 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime, they're not even as good as their record. They'd actually faded to 48th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR even before this loss.

This was not the prettiest game either, as you can guess from the final score. Oregon scored only 19 points in a brutal second half. They failed to score a single point in the six possessions that they had in the final 4:25, and Colorado completed their comeback victory with a nice second effort under the basket by Andre Roberson. Oregon called timeout and had plenty of time to set up a final shot, but they ended up with only a low-percentage fadeaway jumper by EJ Singler that Spencer Dinwiddie appeared to get a hand on.

Colorado continues to struggle to right their ship, but this does get them back to 5-5 in conference play. They are 15-7 overall with wins over Colorado State and Baylor, along with bad losses to Utah and Washington. Their RPI is still 20th, but at only 7-6 against the RPI Top 100, their Sagarin ELO_SCORE was only 47th entering this game. They're right on the fat part of the Tournament bubble right now, and need to get to at least 10-8 in conference play to have a good shot at an at-large bid. Their next game will be at Oregon State, on Sunday.

Oregon may or may not finally drop out of the Top 25 on Monday, but you can make a good case that they're already on the Tournament bubble. They are 18-5 overall and 7-3 in conference play, but as I said three paragraphs up they really only have that one Arizona win to brag about. They are 6-5 against the RPI Top 100, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will slide outside of the Top 40 tomorrow. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but with very little room to spare. They'll be in trouble if they don't get to 12-6 or better in Pac-12 play. At 11-7 they'll probably need to win at least one game in the Pac-12 tournament. The Ducks will next play on Saturday, against Utah.