Wisconsin Crushes Ohio State

#20 Wisconsin 71, #14 Ohio State 49
This was a pretty surprising result to me. Not that Wisconsin won - they were favored by 3.5 points in Vegas - but that this was such a rout. These are two very good teams that much up very well against each other. And the quality of play when these two teams play is usually tremendous. But Wisconsin was as sharp as they've looked all season, while Ohio State was asleep. What stands out to me is that outside shooting, rebounding and turnovers were all basically even in this game. The difference was that Wisconsin was getting open, easy shots all game (61% on two-pointers) while Ohio State couldn't get an open shot all night (41% on two-pointers).

Wisconsin's perimeter defense has been startlingly good this year - particularly since their best perimeter defender (Josh Gasser) tore his ACL in the fall and will miss the entire season. Right now they are leading the Big Ten in 2P% defense (43.3%), eFG% defense (42.4%), defensive rebounding percentage (27.2%), 3PA/FGA ratio (23.1%) and defensive efficiency (0.91 PPP) in conference play. Looking back statistically, the only defense Bo Ryan has had that can even make an argument for being as good as this team was his 2007-08 team that swept the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles before falling in the Sweet 16 to Stephen Curry and Davidson. As I say all the time, Wisconsin (and Pittsburgh and Notre Dame) are teams that are generally better at offense than defense but get the media reputation for being defense-first simply because they play at a slow pace and have low-scoring games. But this year, Wisconsin's offense has generally been a mess (though they were obviously very sharp here), and they actually more or less fit with the stereotype of grinding out low-scoring games with their defense.

Ohio State's resume is a lot weaker than most people realize. They have only two wins all season against the RPI Top 75, and have yet to win a road game all season against an RPI Top 100 opponent. Their RPI has fallen all the way to 28th. That said, Ohio State is in the process of going from being overrated to being underrated. The Buckeyes have been an unlucky 1-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. More importantly, their losses have all come against teams ranked in the Top 15 in the AP Poll at the time. They remain in the Top 15 in Pomeroy and in all of the Sagarin ratings. So the Buckeyes have, like everybody else in the Big Ten, been victims of a brutally tough schedule. The Buckeyes are still a team that is good enough to make a Final Four run if they get the right draw.

This game served one more purpose, which was to go a long way toward settling the fourth bye through the Big Ten tournament first round. Wisconsin is now a game clear of Ohio State with an easier remaining schedule. Both Pomeroy and Sagarin project Wisconsin to finish two games clear of Ohio State in the final Big Ten standings. After playing 11 straight games (yes, 11) against the Pomeroy Top 30, the Badgers finally get a (relative) break, playing at Northwestern on Wednesday. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have a huge opportunity to improve that "Record vs Top 25 teams" statistic this coming week, with home games against Minnesota and Michigan State. They should win at least one of those, and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they win both (expect the Buckeyes to be 2-5 point favorites in Vegas for both games).

Iowa 72, Minnesota 51
Talk about a reversal of fortune...  Minnesota led this game 21-5 at one point. Going from a 16 point lead to a 21 point loss is one of the largest swings I've ever seen in a game. When down 21-5, Iowa was 2-for-8 from the field with four turnovers, adding up to 0.45 PPP. From then on out, they shot 19-for-35 from the field with only 8 more turnovers, adding up to 1.31 PPP. Minnesota, meanwhile, had 1.91 PPP in their early scoring burst, and then only 0.59 PPP thereafter.

Iowa's lockdown defense (after the opening minutes, of course) is not a huge shock. Their defense is dramatically improved this season, and has been the key behind their overall improved play (Iowa's offense actually is slightly worse than it was last season). Last season, Iowa allowed 1.07 PPP in conference play, just 0.01 PPP ahead of Penn State and Nebraska for last place. This season they are allowing only 0.96 PPP in conference play, which is fourth best. The biggest addition is Adam Woodbury, who is quietly one of the best defenders in the conference. He's not yet the best big man post defender in the Big Ten, but in a year or two there's a good chance that he will be. On top of that, guys like Melsahn Basabe and Zach McCabe are much more active defensively than they were last season.

Iowa is one of the teams that I've been keeping in my bracket projections while most everybody else has them out. The other best example is Virginia. The case against Iowa is pure RPI obsession - their RPI stinks (81st in the nation). But the reason their RPI stinks is the biggest reason that the RPI as a rating system stinks - it's so strongly affected by whether you had some really bad teams on your schedule. Iowa has three nice wins (Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa State) to go with only two RPI 35+ losses (Virginia Tech and Purdue), and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 31st. Why does Sagarin think Iowa's resume is 31st best while the RPI has it 81st? Because the Sagarin ratings recognize that beating team #200 isn't significantly more impressive than beating team #340 when you're as good as Iowa, but the RPI doesn't. Iowa has played seven teams with a 250+ RPI, including five outside the RPI Top 300. That's the way you murder your RPI.

The good news for Iowa is that the Selection Committee is not as obsessed with the RPI as the media is. If Iowa gets to 10-8 in Big Ten play (going 4-1 in their final five games - four of which they'll be favored in) then they should be NCAA Tournament bound. If they end up only 9-9 then they'll need to win a game in the Big Ten tournament, but that probably will be enough. Like I said, their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 31st, and no team with a Sagarin ELO rating higher than 35th (and only three higher than 40th) has missed the Tournament in the past four seasons. Iowa's next game is a must-win, on the road at Nebraska on Thursday.

The Gophers are now 6-7 in Big Ten play, though still in the Top 15 of both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. They're yet another victim of a brutal Big Ten schedule. They'll play at Ohio State on Wednesday, and then the following week will get a home game at Indiana - their last chance to significantly improve their NCAA Tournament seed before the Big Ten tournament.

#25 Notre Dame 51, #20 Pittsburgh 42
It was going to take a very poor performance for Pitt to blow a game in which they were 10.5 point favorites in Vegas, but they got it here. Pitt finished with a 34.8 eFG%, a 10.3 OR% and 0.75 PPP. To put those statistics in perspective, that's their worst shooting performance and offensive efficiency since a 62-39 debacle against Rutgers on January 11, 2012. That offensive rebounding was even worse - they haven't rebounded 10% or fewer of their own misses in more than a decade.

Notre Dame's offense wasn't great, but it wasn't bad either. The 0.91 PPP that they scored were on par with the 0.93 PPP that Pitt has allowed in Big East play this season. Eric Atkins played well, scoring 10 points with 7 assists to only 2 turnovers. Jack Cooley clearly outplayed Steven Adams, scoring 13 points (on 5-for-8 shooting) and leading all players with 9 rebounds.

Pittsburgh entered this game 4th in the Pomeroy and 7th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, and they are 3rd in efficiency margin in conference play (behind only Louisville and Syracuse). But they have had some bad luck in close games and also had bad luck with their Big East strength of schedule, and at 8-6 in Big East play are effectively eliminated from Big East title contention. The RPI hates Pittsburgh, dropping them to 39th after this loss. With four RPI Top 50 wins and zero RPI 100+ losses, Pitt is not at risk of falling onto the bubble, but they're at risk of falling to something like a 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Pitt and Minnesota somehow both fall to 8 seeds, there are going to be two very unhappy 1 seeds. Pitt's Big East schedule finally eases up now, however, and they should gain some "momentum" and buzz heading into the Big East tournament. Their next game, at St. John's on Sunday, is actually their toughest remaining game.

The Irish move to 9-5 in Big East play and 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 with this win. They have four very tough games remaining, and will lock up an NCAA tournament bid if they can grab a split. Even if they go only 1-3 in those four games, they should still be fairly safe for an at-large bid, and can lock one up by not being shut out in the Big East tournament. Their next game will be on Sunday, against Cincinnati.