The Atlantic Ten Tightens Up: 11 Teams Within 1 Game

Saint Louis 73, Xavier 68
For whatever reason, the Atlantic Ten has been widely ignored this season. Other than Xavier and their brawl, nobody nationally seems to be paying any attention. The A-10 is strong this year - the conference could plausibly get four teams into the Tournament... even five isn't impossible. Not only that, but the fight for the conference regular season title is remarkably tight. Right now, 11 of the 14 teams in the conference are within one game of each other - somewhere between 4-2 and 3-3.

Xavier came into this game looking to bounce back from a loss to Dayton, but they just couldn't find a rhythm. The refs were extremely whistle-happy, putting the players to line for 60 free throws (a FTA/FGA ratio of 0.65). Tu Holloway hit only 4-for-11 from the field, but scored 22 points because he got to the line 14 times and never missed. On the other end of the floor it was Brian Conklin who abused the undersized Xavier front line for 19 points on 6-for-10 shooting.

With this win, Saint Louis is one of the teams tied atop the A-10 with a 4-2 record. They are 16-4 overall with only one bad loss (Loyola-Marymount), though this is probably their best win of the season. Their soft schedule is why despite being ranked in the Top 15 in the country by Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, their RPI is 41st and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 43rd. If the season ended now they'd be an NCAA Tournament team, but only barely. They don't have any big scalps left on their schedule, but seven of their final ten games will be against the RPI Top 100. So if they can finish strong and finish with something like an 11-5 conference record then, despite the lack of big wins, their computer numbers will be too good for them to get left out on Selection Sunday. Their next game will be Saturday at UMass.

This loss drops them to 4-3 in conference play and 13-7 overall with a 6-6 record against the RPI Top 100, along with that bad loss to Hawaii. Xavier's Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 65th. Remember, they won't get a pass for the games that they lost when they had players suspended. A key opportunity for them to strengthen their resume will come on February 4th when they play at Memphis. Memphis isn't a top team this year, but a win at the Fed Ex Forum would look very nice on a resume (Memphis is 10-1 at home this year, losing to Murray State). Before the Memphis game, Xavier will need to go on the road to play Charlotte and George Washington.

St. Joseph's 77, Dayton 63
This was a tight game most of the night, but a 21-3 run by St. Joe's in the second half blew this game open. Dayton's offense hit a wall during the stretch, going 1-11 from the field with 4 turnovers. The surprise star was Ronald Roberts, who scored the final 15 points for St. Joe's on the way to a career-high 27 points on 10-for-11 shooting. And this was a win that St. Joe's needed, coming off a brutal three-game losing streak that included a bad loss to Pennsylvania.

This win bounced St. Joe's back to 3-3 in conference play and 13-8 overall. That three game losing streak really damaged their resume, however. They were on the bubble two weeks ago, and now even after this win their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 77th. If they can somehow win seven of their final ten games to get to 10-6 and then win a game or two in the A-10 tournament then they will have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, but it's a steeper hill to climb than it was before that three game losing streak.

Dayton is still in pretty good shape after this loss. In the past few weeks, after all, they'd taken out St. Louis, Temple, Xavier and La Salle. They also have a win over Alabama along with bad losses to Buffalo, Miami (OH) and St. Bonaventure. The Flyers need to be careful not to stumble in two relatively easy games (against Rhode Island on Saturday and then against Duquesne on Wednesday) before a big road game at St. Louis. If they could pull the upset there then they'd arguably be in the driver's seat for the A-10 regular season title.

Texas 62, Iowa State 55
Texas looked to have this game in hand, and then nearly blew it all in the final minutes. Iowa State went on a 24-12 run to pull within three points with under 30 seconds to go before J'Covan Brown hit a pair of free throws to pull the Texas lead out of reach for good. Despite those free throws, it was a tough day for Brown. He hit only 3-for-16 from the field with 5 turnovers. Overall, the Longhorns only scored 0.93 PPP.

But the story for Texas all season long has been defense - either good or bad. Their length stifled Iowa State in the paint - the Cyclones finished with only a 37.5 eFG% and 0.82 PPP. This season, Texas has three wins in Big 12 play, and in all three have theld their opponent to under 0.85 PPP. In their four losses? They've allows more than 1.08 PPP in every single one. That's a remarkable dichotomy. The stats are pretty strong in non-conference play as well. In their three non-conference losses they allowed more than 1.1 PPP. In their ten non-conference wins they held all but two to under 0.95 PPP.

The Longhorns enter a key stretch now. They head on the road to play Baylor on Saturday, and then will come home to play Missouri on Monday. It's not likely that they'll lose both, but if they do then they'll drop to 3-6 in conference play and there will be a real risk of this young team melting down mentally and ending up in the NIT. If they can win one game or both? Then I expect them to continue improving as we continue toward Selection Sunday.

This game was a missed opportunity for Iowa State to complete the season sweep of Texas. They are 14-6 and 4-3 in conference play, but that one win over Texas is their only real quality win this year and they have a bad loss to Drake. They will forget about this loss in an instant, however, if they can somehow knock off Kansas on Saturday. An upset there plus nine conference wins and a win in the Big 12 tournament would more likely than not be sufficient for an at-large bid.