A Little Hope For Pittsburgh?

Pittsburgh 72, #10 Georgetown 60
Between the start of December and January 15th, Travon Woodall only played one, ineffective game. He had been sidelined with an abdominal/groin injury. He returned to action a week ago against Louisville, though he was ineffective again. But on Wednesday he played well in Pitt's first win of the season (over Providence), and he looked like his old self here. He didn't score a lot, but he had 10 assists. And suddenly, Pitt's offense looks decent again: in the two games with Woodall back playing well, the Panthers have scored 1.16 PPP. I don't want to put all of Pitt's struggles on one player, because there's no excuse for some of those performances that Pitt has had (such as the 62-39 debacle to Rutgers), but there has to be a lot of hope in Pittsburgh that this team is going to actually play pretty well down the stretch.

Does Pitt still have time to get something out of this season? Do they still have a chance at an at-large bid? I'm sure some Pitt fans are wondering that, but at this point I have to say it's still very unlikely. They are 2-7 in Big East without any big wins out-of-conference and a few bad losses (Wagner, DePaul, Rutgers). They'd have to get to 8-10 to even have a chance heading into the Big East tournament, which would require a 6-3 finish with a whole bunch of tough road games left (UConn, Louisville, Seton Hall and West Virginia), along with some difficult home games. In my view, I need to see them beat more than one quality team before I even give serious thought to any at-large hopes for the Panthers. Their next game will be Monday night at West Virginia. Next Saturday they'll face Villanova at home.

This loss drops Georgetown to 6-3, and probably ends any realistic Big East title hopes. They'll have to win at Syracuse on February 8th to have any chance at all at a share of the title. Before that game they'll head home for a pair of games against UConn and USF. The UConn game is up first, on Wednesday.

Colorado State 77, #12 San Diego State 60
Colorado State fans didn't really act any different from any other fan base, so I don't mean to pick on them, but some things that fans do just don't make sense to me. When they were winning this game late they started chanting "over-rated, over-rated", and then as soon as the game finished they stormed the court. To me, that's insulting to your own team. Colorado State was only a 1.5 or 2 point dog in Vegas (depending on where you looked), and I expected them to win. San Diego State had won three straight huge games and was overdue for a loss, and CSU was stinging from back-to-back losses. Act like you expected to win this one, not like you're some lower level team that's super excited to win a single game over a quality opponent.

That said, Colorado State has been a team that tends to take care of business against inferior opponents and has always come up just short against elite opponents. CSU was a solid team the past two years, when a Big Four of UNLV, New Mexico, BYU and San Diego State dominated the conference. Including the conference tournament, CSU went 2-16 against those four teams over that stretch, and 14-2 against everybody else in the Mountain West. That's a remarkable dichotomy. BYU is no longer around, but CSU's first game this season against the new Big Three was a loss (a 30 point thumping at New Mexico). They needed to get over the hump and to win at least a pair of games against the Big Three to have a shot at an at-large bid, so getting this one big win really helps.

Colorado State is now 14-8 overall and 3-2 in the Mountain West, with this being their first quality win, although they don't have any really bad losses either. They are 3-6 against the RPI Top 100, but without any losses this season outside the Top 85. This win pushes their RPI up to 18th, though I wouldn't take that too seriously. Their Sagarin ELO-CHESS will be right around 50th. If the season ended now they'd be on the bubble, though I think they'd be left out because of the fact that they only have one Top 50 win. But if they can pick up one more win against the Big Three, get to 8-6 and win a game in the Mountain West tournament? They'll at the very least be on the bubble on Selection Sunday. They have a tough game coming up on Wednesday at UNLV, but then have a relatively easy stretch (vs Air Force, at TCU, at Boise State) before heading home for a key stretch of games against Wyoming and New Mexico. If they beat both Wyoming and New Mexico at home and go at least 4-2 over that six game stretch, I'll probably move them into my bracket.

This was a reality check game for San Diego State, and so not a whole lot to worry about. Their numbers in Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR have risen from around 80th to nearly 40th over the past couple of weeks, and there's no question that their young players are looking a lot better than they were in November and December. They are still in an excellent position at 4-1 in Mountain West play. I still believe UNLV is the team to beat in the Mountain West, but wouldn't be shocked if SDSU proved me wrong. The Aztecs will be at home this week to play Boise State (Wednesday) and TCU (Saturday).

Purdue 58, Northwestern 56
This is one of those games far below the radar (it might not even get mentioned on Sportscenter tomorrow morning) but that has huge ramifications for Selection Sunday. Both of these teams could end up on the bubble, and it's always huge for bubble teams to beat other bubble teams. These two teams were within a couple of points of each other almost the entire game, and the winning bucket was an off-balance jumper on the baseline from Robbie Hummel. It's always a mistake to try to draw too many conclusions from a game that was this close, but Northwestern was very sloppy with the ball (16 turnovers). I think the ball was out of the hands of Dave Sobolewski too much. Sobolewski is a freshman and he's a little goofy looking, but it's gotten increasingly clear that he's a very good point guard who plays beyond his age and experience. I would have run more of the offense through him. Too often it seems like Northwestern sticks to their system and allows other teams to get the ball out of the hands of certain players (like John Shurna). If I were the coach, I'd be willing to shift out of the system a bit to get the ball into the hands of certain players. Particularly when your team (such as Northwestern) has so little depth.

This is another tough loss for Northwestern. They are now 0-3 this season in games decided by four points or less. They haven't lost to a single bad team all season, but they're only 12-8 overall, and just 2-6 in Big Ten play. The Big Ten is the best conference in the land, so if Northwestern can avoid any bad losses and can pick up a big scalp or two (they've already beaten Michigan State, but they need one or two more) and then get to 8-10 in Big Ten play, they'll at least have a chance to earn an at-large bid in the Big Ten conference. But that means going 6-4 the rest of the way. The good news is that they start "the rest of the way" with a home game against Nebraska on Thursday. Needless to say, Northwestern absolutely cannot afford to lose that game.

Purdue's resume is in a better place than Northwestern. They are now 5-4 in Big Ten play with wins over Temple, Illinois, Minnesota and Miami (Fl), and with bad losses to Butler and Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to move up close to 40th after this win. If the season ended now they'd definitely be in the NCAA Tournament, but they need to get to at least 9-9 to still be in the Field of 68 when the Big Ten tournament tips off. They have a week off before an important game against an Indiana Hoosiers team that is desperate to beat a quality team on the road, something that they haven't done yet in Tom Crean's four seasons.