Is North Carolina Underrated?

North Carolina 64, Virginia Tech 61
The media's over-hyping of the ACC, particularly Duke and North Carolina, used to be a running joke. But the media's fascination has moved to SEC football and Big East basketball, and the ACC has actually been underrated the past 2-3 years. Duke still get mentioned on ESPN every five seconds, but North Carolina might actually be underrated. Right now they're rated in the Top 25 by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, but they're not rated in the Top 25 by any human poll. I can't recall that every happening to North Carolina. St. Mary's is another team rated as a Top 25 team by both Sagarin and Pomeroy but not by the humans, but... they're St. Mary's. St. Mary's doesn't exactly have the history and tradition of North Carolina. But UNC isn't even close, they're not even in the Top 35 vote getters in either poll. They have wins over Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Rutgers (suprisingly a decent win this season) and zero weak losses. They're 1-4 against the RPI Top 35, but are undefeated against everybody else. And they're 2-0 in the ACC with an easy schedule upcoming, beginning with Georgia Tech on Sunday. Their key stretch begins on February 1st, when they head to Boston College, then get Florida State at home, and then head to Duke. I don't think they match-up well against Duke, so I expect them to lose both of their games against them, but they still might be the second best in the conference overall. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is really struggling. I know that they're short-handed, but they just continue to come up short against quality teams. They do have a win over Oklahoma State and another over Florida State, but that's about it. Their RPI is 65th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 67th, so they're a bit off the bubble. They should take care of Wake Forest at home tomorrow, but then head on the road for Maryland. They've got to beat some good teams on the road. Right now they have one true road win all season and it came against UNC-Greensboro.

Drexel 62, Old Dominion 57
This is not a bad loss for Old Dominion in a vacuum. Drexel is a really good team this year - good enough that they might even be on the bubble in March - and they were at home here. But the fact is that the margin of error is just so small for a team like Old Dominion out of a mid-level conference and without big wins in non-conference (Xavier and Dayton are the best wins they have). Drexel beat Old Dominion the only way they can realistically be beaten, which is by doing a great job of boxing out. ODU is a tremendous offensive rebounding team, but they can struggle to score if they're not getting those boards, as was the case here. ODU's RPI is 40th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 44th, but with the lack of big wins they'd be right on the bubble if the season ended now. And the problem is, they have no chances left for big wins, so the only way they're going to get an at-large bid will be if they go on a long winning streak. They're going to need an overwhelming number of wins - at least 24. They play at Hofstra tomorrow, but shouldn't be too tested again until next Saturday, when they will play VCU. As for Drexel, they actually have a better Sagarin PREDICTOR than Old Dominion after this win. That said, Pomeroy disagrees, and their resume is inferior regardless. They do have a big win over Louisville, but this Old Dominion win is their only other win against the RPI Top 130, and they've got a loss to Hofstra that will likely end up an RPI 100+ loss. Even moreso than Old Dominion they're going to need to go almost undefeated the rest of the way if they're going to earn an at-large bid. Their best chance of making the Tournament will be winning the CAA tournament.

Mississippi State 69, Ole Miss 64
Dee Bost had 25 points in this game and Renardo Sidney had 24 - Rick Stansbury's preseason plan is finally coming together! Of course, Sidney's bad behavior and poor playing condition, combined with a crazy schedule designed to get Dee Bost's suspension over in time for the start of SEC play, meant the loss of Elgin Bailey to a "voluntary" transfer along with losses to Hawaii, Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee.... but, you know, it's going to be all rainbows and gumdrops from here on out! In all seriousness, this win did push their Sagarin PREDICTOR up to 200th, and Pomeroy has them all the way up at 155th, but they're only 9-7 overall and their RPI is still down at 202nd. Needless to say they would need a near-miracle to get back to the bubble now, particularly since their schedule strength will be weak with 10 games against the putrid SEC West. Mississippi State, even after this win against their in-state rival, is still probably the most disappointing team in the entire country. As for Ole Miss, they might be the best team in the SEC West, but that's not saying a whole lot. Their best win of the season was over Penn State, and this loss will likely be a very bad loss. They're likely going to need to go at least 10-6 in SEC play to earn an at-large bid, and they're off to an 0-2 start. Their next game is a key one, at home against Georgia tomorrow evening. After that they head on the road to Vanderbilt, a game that they'll be very unlikely to win. They can't afford an 0-4 start to SEC play.