Syracuse Loses Their Fourth Straight

Marquette 76, #10 Syracuse 70
Syracuse won their first 18 games of the season, and have now followed that up with four straight losses. What made this game bizarre was that Marquette didn't win this game the way you'd think they would. With streaky three-point shooters, Marquette has the ability to really pour it on against the Syracuse zone, but three-point shooting was actually a draw in this game (both teams were 6-for-13). Instead the Marquette guards were torching Syracuse defenders one-on-one and just getting on an endless march to the free throw line. They earned 33 shots at the line despite only drawing 22 fouls, which is an amazing ratio - a majority of fouls committed by Syracuse were on missed shots.. It was even more dramatic in the first half, which Marquette won 42-31. Marquette was fouled 9 times and earned 15 free throws. So Syracuse was constantly bailing out Marquette drivers.

Syracuse has a lot of questions right now, but they've got to find some answers soon, because their next game is Wednesday night at UConn, and a loss would drop them to 5-5 in Big East play. And they still have road games at Louisville, Georgetown and Villanova to go. If the season ended now Syracuse would still be a 3 or 4 seed, but they could easily tumble further. As for Marquette, winning this game isn't as important as not losing it. What I mean by that is that losing an 11 point second half lead, after losing so many late leads this season (including that still unbelievable collapse against Louisville a couple weeks ago when they had an 18 point lead with under 6 minutes to go and lost). If the season ended now Marquette would be an interesting resume. They are only 14-8 overall, including 5-8 against the RPI Top 100, which seems extremely unimpressive. But then you break it down and see wins over Notre Dame, West Virginia and Syracuse, and the fact that the only team they've lost to outside the RPI Top 30 is Gonzaga on a neutral court, and you realize that they've just been through a brutal schedule. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be well inside the Top 40 with this win, and in my opinion there's no question they'd be in the Field of 68 if the season ended now. In fact, I think they'd be something like an 8 or 9 seed. The Selection Committee has always rewarded teams that beat elite opponents, even if they have a lot of losses, over teams that play soft schedules and beat up on cupcakes. At 5-4 in Big East play I think Marquette will be a near-lock for the Tournament if they can finish 9-9 or better. But that won't be easy. They now head off for three straight road games: at Villanova, USF and Georgetown.

Nebraska 57, #11 Texas A&M 48
Texas A&M just could not hit a shot in the second half of this game. They scored 17 points on 24% shooting from the field. But Nebraska deserves credit, they've been playing great defense all season. They entered this game 9th in the nation in Pomeroy Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Speaking of computer ratings, Texas A&M entered this game rated 29th and 30th by Pomeroy and Sagarin respectively. So they were due for a loss. Texas A&M is now 4-2 in the Big 12, in third place, with a big home game coming up Monday night against Texas. If the season ended now they'd likely be a 4 or 5 seed, but it's going to be hard for them to move up because of their soft schedule. Without a win over Texas, or later in the season on the road at Kansas, it's going to be hard for them to move up any higher. This was a game that Nebraska really needed after losing three of four, including a terrible loss at Texas Tech. Nebraska is now 3-3 in Big 12 play and 15-5 overall, but they have only one RPI Top 50 win (Texas A&M) and two RPI 100+ losses (Davidson, Texas Tech). Their RPI is 81st, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to be right around 80th as well. It's hard to see them making the Tournament even after this win, with a path to an at-large bid likely involving a 7-3 finish or better, and then a win or two in the Big 12 tournament. That is going to be a long shot considering the fact that their next three games are at Kansas State, vs Kansas, and at Baylor.

Valparaiso 85, Butler 79, OT
This game was a shooting exhibition. Both teams hit 46% of their three-pointers, with Valparaiso hitting 10-for-22 and Butler hitting 13-for-28. But even though Butler hit at such a high clip, it was a good sign for Valpo that Butler was even taking so many. And the reason was because Ronald Nored and Shawn Vanzant both fouled out, while Shelvin Mack spent the afternoon bricking jump shots (3-for-12 from the field, including 1-for-7 behind the arc). Valpo just would not let them penetrate. Zach Hahn (5-for-8 behind the arc) was the player keeping Butler in the game. Valparaiso is a good team (they might even end up an RPI Top 50 team before all is said and done), but this is still a bad loss for Butler because they lack big wins to balance all of these losses. Butler's only RPI Top 50 wins are over Florida State and Cleveland State, and they've got three RPI 100+ losses (Evansville and UW-Milwaukee twice). And that doesn't include a loss to Wright State, a team that could end up outside the RPI Top 100. Butler's RPI is still 42nd, but RPI doesn't matter. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is outside the Top 60, and without any big wins there's no chance they'll earn an at-large bid without an ELO_CHESS inside the Top 50. They still have to head to Cleveland State, and should have a Bracketbusters game, and also have a home game against Wright State, but their other six regular season games are against teams outside the RPI Top 140. So unless they go undefeated the rest of the way they are very likely to be outside the Field of 68 when they head into the Horizon League tournament. That means that unless they win their next 9 or 10 games, or benefit from a very weak bubble, they're going to need the Horizon auto bid to get back to the Tournament. Valpo's resume is actually really similar to Butler's right now. They also have two RPI Top 50 wins (Cleveland State and Butler) and three RPI 100+ losses (Ohio, UW-Green Bay and Youngstown State). Their resume is slightly weaker, but not by much. Valpo heads to Cleveland State on Thursday night, and if they can pull the upset there they'll be heavily favored in every regular season they have remaining (other than perhaps a Bracketbusters game). It's plausible that they could enter the Horizon tournament with a better resume than Butler.