Sunday, January 16, 2011

W-8 BP68

We're eight weeks from Selection Sunday, and this is my first BP68 with the full bubble, where I list every team with even the most remote chance of making the Tournament as an at-large team. From here on out I will be eliminating teams with each new BP68 until the final bracket on Selection Sunday, where I'll project the 68 teams in the field plus a few others that might get in if I made a mistake.

As always, here is how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. Syracuse
2. Texas
2. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)

3. BYU (MWC)
3. Villanova
3. Illinois
3. San Diego State

4. Wisconsin
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
4. Purdue
4. Georgetown

5. Texas A&M
5. Michigan State
5. Louisville
5. Vanderbilt

6. UConn
6. Missouri
6. North Carolina
6. Notre Dame

7. Baylor
7. UNLV
7. Maryland
7. Kansas State

8. West Virginia
8. Florida
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Arizona

9. Tennessee
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)
9. Saint Mary's
9. UTAH STATE (WAC)

10. Oklahoma State
10. Washington State
10. Boston College
10. Cincinnati

11. MISSOURI STATE (MVC)
11. New Mexico
11. Minnesota
11. Florida State

12. Central Florida
12. Marquette
12. Richmond
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Northwestern
12. Virginia Tech

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)

14. IONA (MAAC)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. CHARLESTON (SOUTHERN)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)

15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (SUN BELT)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Miami (Fl), St. John's, Iowa State, UAB, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Wichita State, Georgia

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Clemson, NC State, Dayton, Duquesne, Xavier, Michigan, Colorado, Nebraska, Drexel, George Mason, James Madison, UTEP, Valparaiso, Colorado State, California, UCLA, Stanford, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, Rhode Island, Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Hofstra, VCU, Marshall, Tulane, Tulsa, Princeton, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Arizona State, Oregon, USC, Alabama

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Charlotte, UMass, Saint Louis, DePaul, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Wright State, Fairfield, Rider, Akron, Ball State, Miami-Ohio, Evansville, Indiana State, TCU, Utah, Oregon State, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, North Texas, Boise State

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

why wouldn't you have a SDSU or BYU ahead of Washington in your final seeding? The MWC being tougher then the P 10 these past two years and with Washington's losses mounting up I would think they will be lucky to get a 4 seed.

Jeff said...

The Pac-10 and Mountain West are actually nearly identical. Sagarin does give the MWC a slight advantage, but Pomeroy gives the advantage to the Pac-10.

And I do agree with you that if the season ended now the MWC champ would have a better seed than Washington, but I think that the advantage that Washington has no clear contender. They will collect a ton of RPI Top 100 wins without being too seriously tested. I'll be shocked if they lose more than two more times the rest of the season. The MWC leaders, however, all have to play each other. So I think in the end the MWC champ will end up with at least as many losses as Washington, and that's why I'm giving Washington the edge right now over either MWC team.

Buckeye said...

Really put UMass in the Miracle category? I agree they are out by a lot right now but with wins over Dayton and an underrated team from Quinnipiac, not to mention the schedule they have left which gives them a good opportunity for some resume building wins I don't think it would take a "miracle"

Jeff said...

UMass has two bad losses and zero RPI Top 50 wins, and they still haven't win a true road game. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 115th. They'll have to go on a 7 or 8 game winning streak just to get onto the bubble.

On resume alone you can make a good argument for UMass being one category up, but I'm also accounting for just what I've seen from them. I don't think they're good enough to go on a long winning streak.

For comparison, Seton Hall's resume is pretty similar to UMass's resume right now. But Seton Hall is a team with more potential to go on a winning streak than UMass, and they have more opportunities for big wins in the Big East.

Anonymous said...

Whats up Jeff. What happened with western kentycky and north texas? Why the two teams are bad if they have all the players that you mentioned in your conference previews? And with davidson its the same.

Jeff said...

Well, I said in my 2010-11 previews that I thought Florida Atlantic would be tough, but WKU had such a good frontcourt. But WKU has really struggled so far. At this point I think FAU is only a narrow favorite over WKU, but that gets them into my bracket. I'm not going to keep WKU in just for pride.

As for Davidson, they aren't particularly struggling. Charleston is just playing even better than I thought. I had picked Charleston as the top contender to Davidson, but they've played out of this world so far.

Both the SoCon and Sun Belt should have fun tournaments in March.

Unknown said...

Washington lost to stanford, until SDSU has a loss like that I can't see how UW deserves a higher seed.

Who has washington beat?

Washington 1-3 against rpi 1-50,4-1 51-100
SDSU 4-0 against rpi 1-50, 5-0 51-100

Those resumes aren't close

Anonymous said...

Because he is expecting Washington to run through the rest of the schedule rather easily as exposed to SDSU requiring to play UNLV, New Mexico and BYU i think

Jeff said...

Anonymous is correct.

If the season ended now, SDSU would be a 2 seed and Washington would be a 4 or 5 seed. I do not disagree.

But overall the two teams are about equal in skill and play, and Washington has the much easier route to Selection Sunday. I don't even think SDSU is winning their conference - I'm picking BYU.

If SDSU goes something like 14-2 in the MWC and wins the regular season and tournament titles? They'll get a 2 seed, and have a good shot of finishing with a better seed than Washington. But that is not my projection.

Anonymous said...

I couldn't care about UConn one way or the other, but taking into account their win vs Villanova today is it reasonable to finally believe they're legit? I keep expecting them to lose, but as of right now they've got without question the best resume in the country. Add to that a not-insanely-difficult (relatively speaking, of course) closing third to the season and I've gotta think it's getting close to that time where we all acknowledge UConn as, quite possibly, a legit 2 or 3 seed, regardless of their perceived talent deficiencies.

Jeff said...

It depends how you define "legit". They certainly are a good team that is very tough to beat at home, but I still don't believe they're nearly as good as teams like Syracuse, Pitt and Villanova.

UConn entered this game with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 5th and a PREDICTOR of 24th... needless to say a 2 point victory will not close that gap.

Heading into today Pomeroy projected a 10-8 record for UConn... I think that's underrating them. A 12-6 record is more likely. But these things tend to even out, and I do think they're due to tail off down the stretch.

Jeff said...

Just a rule of thumb since you're obviously new here. I only respond to coherent comments, questions and/or criticisms. If you want to make an argument why one team is overrated or underrated please make it and I'll be happy to respond.

If you're just going to call me stupid then that reflects a lot more poorly on you than it does on me.