Florida Continues To Roll, Thumps Ole Miss

#4 Florida 78, #16 Mississippi 64
This game really wasn't even as close as the final score would suggest. Florida led by as many as 20 in the first half, and by as many as 23 in the second half before taking their foot off the pedal and cruising in for a victory. Yet as amazing as Florida has been playing, a 14 point win seems almost disappointing. It drops their efficiency margin in SEC play from +0.46 PPP to +0.42 PPP. To put that dominance in perspective, Kansas is outscoring the Big 12 by 0.13 PPP, while Miami is outscoring ACC opponents by 0.17 PPP. And yes, the SEC is the weakest of the six BCS conferences, but that level of domination is amazing. And for those who say Florida hasn't beaten good teams: they have beaten Wisconsin, Marquette, Missouri and Ole Miss by an average of 24 points per game. Statistically, Florida is the best team in the country by quite a bit, and every computer rating that I've seen agrees with that assertion.

Ole Miss lost both games that they played this week, but it's not like they really played that badly. They are probably the third best team in the conference, and they lost to the two best teams in the conference, including the team that is most likely the best in the nation. Neither of those losses will be a problem on Selection Sunday, and they are still a strong 6-2 in conference play. They do have a road game at Missouri next Saturday, but other than that their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way. So they should rack up a bunch of wins and should keep moving up the Tournament bracket. Their next game will be a pretty easy one, on Wednesday against Mississippi State.

It's pretty clear that the only test Florida is going to get in conference play will come from Kentucky. They'll play Kentucky in Gainesville on February 12th, followed by a road game at Kentucky in their season finale on March 9th. Florida should have the SEC regular season title wrapped up before that final game, where they'll just be playing to help preserve their 1 seed and to help get them sharp before the NCAA Tournament tips off. Their next game will be at Arkansas, on Tuesday. They'll face Mississippi State on Saturday.

St. Joseph's 70, Temple 69
Temple led for most of the game here, including a nine point lead with 5:30 to go, but Carl Jones had eight points in that final stretch to pull St. Joe's back into the lead. Khalif Wyatt had a chance on the final possession to give Temple the win, but couldn't convert. Of course, you can't blame Wyatt in any way for this loss. He had 34 points with 7-for-14 shooting behind the arc (a 60.4 eFG% overall). His teammates combined to shoot 4-for-17 behind the arc, with a 39.0 eFG%.

Shooting has, of course, been an issue for Temple all season. They are 8-1 this season when they have had an eFG% over 50%, but only 6-6 when under 50%. But outside of Wyatt, they have no consistent scorers, and it's why Temple has floundered so far in conference play. This loss is their fifth in their last nine games, and drops them to 3-4 in conference play. Temple is also 1-3 against the RPI Top 50 (the win came against Syracuse), with two RPI 100+ losses (Canisius and St. Bonaventure). Their RPI is 54th and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will slide to around 60th. They'd be a bubble team if the season ended now, but right now they're sliding out of the bracket. They'll need to get to at least 9-7 in conference play, and probably more like 10-6, to earn an at-large bid. Their next game will against Charlotte, on Wednesday.

St. Joe's has had a disappointing season relative to expectations, though this win pushes them to 4-3 in conference play. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is moving closer to the Top 50, but a 7-7 record against the RPI Top 200 is not good enough. If the season ended now they'd be headed to the NIT. To get into the bracket they'll need to go at least 10-6 in conference play. The Hawks will be on the road this coming week, at Dayton on Wednesday and at UMass on Saturday.

Iowa State 79, Baylor 71
Iowa State really had to grind this win out. They were a brutal 4-for-24 behind the arc, so they only won because they could attack the rim. They hit 60% of their two-point attempts, and earned 30 free throw attempts. Will Clyburn led the way with 28 points, including 11-for-12 at the free throw line.

Baylor had opportunities to win this game, but they lost focus offensively. Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson have the ability to control the paint against the Iowa State front line, but Baylor didn't get them the ball enough. Pierre Jackson took 17 shots and AJ Walton took 12, while Austin and Jefferson combined for just 19. This year, Baylor is 7-0 when Cory Jefferson takes 9 or more shots in a game, but only 7-7 when he doesn't. Jefferson is leading Baylor in ORtg - you've got to get him the ball. This has seemingly been a problem for years with Baylor, as they always have a tremendous front court, and always have a very talented primary playmaker who takes too many shots and doesn't get those bigs involved enough.

Iowa State moves to 5-3 in Big 12 play with this win, with victories over BYU, Kansas State and Baylor, along with that terrible loss to Texas Tech. This win should push their Sagarin ELO_SCORE into the Top 45, and (in my opinion) definitely puts them in the NCAA Tournament for the time being. If they can get to at least 10-8 in conference play, with a win in the Big 12 tournament, I think they'll be in good shape for an at-large bid.

Baylor's at-large chances have to be considered as well, since two straight losses have them drifting closer to the bubble. They are now 14-7 overall and 5-3 in Big 12 play, with wins over Kentucky, BYU and Oklahoma State, along with losses to Charleston and Northwestern. They are only 5-6 against the RPI Top 100, and their RPI has tumbled to 48th. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should still be inside the Top 30, so they're still a definite NCAA Tournament team at the moment, but they need to get to 10-8 in conference play to stay in the Field of 68. And unless they get to 11-7 or better, they'll enter the Big 12 tournament with work left to do. They've got a tough game coming up also, on the road at Oklahoma State on Wednesday.