#1 UConn Pulls An Upset?

#1 UConn 68, #7 Louisville 51
Coming into this game I was thinking the same thing everybody else was: For several weeks in a row we've seen the top team in the country get knocked off. Louisville had already done it once, they were once again at home, and they were scorching hot. I saw the upset coming, everybody saw the upset coming, and the only problem was... it was too obvious. It's like the theory on underrated vs overrated players, that if you call somebody underrated enough they eventually become overrated. The reason so many top teams have gone down is because they start thinking they're better than they really are, and a hungry opponent just has more to play for. But with everybody (and I mean everybody) picking Louisville to win this game, I think that the Cardinals players actually became the ones thinking they were better than they really were. Remarkably, the top ranked team in the nation got to play the "nobody believed in us" card. And so UConn, the top ranked team in the nation and a three point underdog in Vegas, pulled an "upset" here by rocking Louisville. I still think that North Carolina is the best team in the land, but it's hard to argue against UConn as #2 right now. As for Louisville, they just got beat by a better team, and there's no reason to focus on the margin of victory. They are still 8-1 in the Big East with a great chance to challenge for the conference title. It is still possible for them to earn a 1 seed if they can get back to their winning ways.

#24 Kansas 75, Baylor 65
You wouldn't think that Kansas, the defending National Champion and one of the five premier programs in the nation, could possibly go under the radar this season, but it's clear that they have. They weren't great in their out-of-conference play, but the Jayhawks are now 7-0 in the Big 12 without too tough of a remaining schedule. One thing that hurts their chances of winning the Big 12 is that their only game against Oklahoma will be on the road. But I don't think Jayhawks fans will be too disappointed if they "only" finish in second place in the Big 12 during what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Baylor, meanwhile, is entering a danger zone here. They are now 3-5 in the Big 12 and have fallen to 8th place. With four straight losses they are now 2-7 against the RPI Top 50, with an RPI of 47th. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy put them right around the 40th best team of the nation, so they're a true bubble team. It's going to be a stressful finish to the season for the Bears, with every game meaning so much, but would you expect any less from Scott Drew's cardiac kids? With a relatively easy end to the regular season, the key for Baylor is the upcoming schedule (at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State). They have to win at least two of those four games to stay firmly in the bubble discussion.

UW-Green Bay 75, #11 Butler 66
I know that of Butler fans have been upset that I haven't been pushing their seed up to the 4 or 5 seed range that they think they deserve, but it's games like this that I was anticipating. The fact is that they have won a lot of close games and were due for some close losses. This type of game is the type of game that they're bound to lose: they were facing a good team on the road, and that team played very well (in this case, 32-of-35 from the free throw line). But for the same reason that I wouldn't push up Butler's seed just because the Top 25 pollsters incorrectly kept pushing them up each week, I won't drop Butler's seed because they lost one game against a good team. I'm still expecting them to lose at least one more game before the Horizon season ends, but even that shouldn't keep Butler out of the Tournament. Despite a lack of marquee wins (other than that victory over Xavier), Butler should make the Tournament just because of the sheer impressiveness of their overall record (18-2). Their computer numbers remain very good even after this loss. As for UW-Green Bay, let's not forget that they are still a long shot bubble team themselves. They are now 17-5 with a 2-3 record against the RPI Top 100. They have an RPI of 68th, a Sagarin of 64th, and Pomeroy puts them 67th. They wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but they're certainly within shouting distance. They would have to go nearly undefeated the rest of the way to make the Tournament as an at-large, but it's still possible. This is probably the best UW-GB team since Dick Bennett was roaming the sidelines in the early-to-mid 1990s.