Sunday, February 22, 2009

W-3 BP65

Three weeks to Selection Sunday. Slightly more than a week to the first conference tournament games:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. UConn
2. Louisville
2. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
2. Duke

3. Villanova
3. Kansas
3. Clemson
3. Missouri

4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Florida State
4. UCLA (PAC-10)
4. Wake Forest

5. Arizona State
5. Marquette
5. LSU (SEC)
5. West Virginia

6. Washington
6. Purdue
6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Syracuse

7. Tennessee
7. UTAH (MWC)
7. Illinois
7. Texas

8. California
8. Wisconsin
8. Florida
8. South Carolina

9. Arizona
9. Kentucky
9. Ohio State
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)

10. Boston College
10. UTAH STATE (WAC)
10. BYU
10. Dayton

11. Minnesota
11. SIENA (MAAC)
11. San Diego State
11. UNLV

12. Maryland
12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. Oklahoma State
12. Saint Mary's

13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

15. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
15. CORNELL (IVY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. RADFORD (BIG SOUTH)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Temple, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Michigan, Kansas State, UAB, USC

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Rhode Island, Providence, Penn State, Baylor, Texas A&M, George Mason

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Saint Joseph's, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Nebraska, Northeastern, Houston, Tulsa, Wisconsin-GB, Niagara, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, Saint Louis, Seton Hall, Hofstra, Central Florida, UTEP, Cleveland State, Buffalo, Wyoming, Stanford, Washington State, Alabama, Portland, Boise State
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11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Michigan State still a 1 seed?

Duke still a 2?

UCLA a 4??????????????????????

Wake only a 4?

Geez, you are horrible. Absolutely brutal.

February 22, 2009 10:52 AM
Jeff said...

I have a lot of tolerance for abusive posts, but this is your first warning to tone it down or I will start blocking your comments.

I encourage people to disagree with me, but in constructive ways. Go see how others comment to see the mature way to disagree with others.

February 22, 2009 11:03 AM
Anonymous said...

Whatever. I think have one of the silliest bracket projections on the Internet. If your way of standing up for your picks is to censor me, then go for it. I truly won't care.

February 22, 2009 2:29 PM
Jeff said...

This is not about censorship. This is about keeping up a higher standard of discourse.

If you haven't noticed, nobody ever posts and says "Wow, this is the greatest website ever!". They post because they are asking questions, or more often because they disagree with my projections.

If you disagree, simply present an argument. Tell me why one team should be ahead of another. Give me reasons why a team is underrated or overrated. Give me reasons why you expect a team to improve or get worse. Either I will agree and change my opinion, or I will disagree and offer my counterargument. Either way we are all getting a greater understanding of the world of college basketball. Multiple minds are better than one.

Give me reasons, and behave in a respectful way. Things like "UR an idiot" are not how we do things here.

February 22, 2009 2:33 PM
Anonymous said...

Dude, get over yourself. I'm not hoping to change your opinion. I'm simply laughing as some of your projections.

February 22, 2009 4:00 PM
luciente said...

Whatever that dude's a jerk.

Anyhoo. Do you think the Big East could end up with for total No. 1 & 2 seeds? Would the committee go for this?

February 22, 2009 8:49 PM
Jeff said...

The quick answer to your question is that there's no reason that the Selection Committee won't put four Big East teams as 1 and 2 seeds (since I believe that's your question, right?).

I would argue that it's unlikely, because it's more likely that some middle of the pack teams making a final push for the Tournament will drag down a team like Villanova or Louisville. But if four teams can truly separate themselves, it's certainly possible.

February 22, 2009 9:20 PM
Anonymous said...

Big East 1 & 2 seeds...

Well, the teams in the running are Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Villanova & Marquette. I think Pitt and UConn will both be 1 seeds. I think Memphis is a lock for a 2 seed. I think either Duke or Wake will get a 2 seed. So, Louisville, Villanova & Marquette will have to battle it out with Michigan State, Kansas, Missouri and Clemson for the last 2 spots.

I would suspect the Big East will get two 1 seeds and one 2 seed.

February 22, 2009 9:52 PM
Rainmaker203 said...

How is Penn State not even in your "considered but missed the cut" list? Here's the resume:

19-8 (8-6 Big 10)
6-5 road/neutral record
RPI 62, SOS 86
6-8 vs RPI top 100, no bad losses
road wins over Michigan State and Illinois
home wins over Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan.

Remaining schedule:
@ Ohio State
Indiana
Illinois
@ Iowa

It's unlikely they will do worse than 2-2 over that stretch, which would give them 10 wins in the 3rd best conference.

That looks like an NCAA team to me, or at the very least a team that is right on the cusp of making the field.

February 23, 2009 11:38 AM
Anonymous said...

What do you use as to set up your projections? (first time here)

UCLA just got drilled the last week, I don't see how you have them ahead of Marquette, and that's just one example.

February 23, 2009 1:07 PM
Jeff said...

Penn State: their out of conference resume is really very weak. And because of that they have weak computer numbers. Right now they're 54th in the Sagarin ratings, and more importantly they have an ELO_CHESS of 31st and a PREDICTOR of 69th, which means that they've overachieved so far (which anybody who has watched them play regularly would know).

A team must get a Sagarin rating of under 50 in order to make the Tournament, because in all of the time I've been following the Selection Committee I've never seen an exception to that rule. In my opinion, Penn State needs at least three more wins to make the Tournament. So if they go 2-2 the rest of the way that means they need at least one win in the Big Ten tournament.

The reason Penn State is in the second category is because I didn't seriously consider putting them in the bracket yesterday, which is the case with the teams in the first category.


As for the commenter who asked how this bracket is put together, I hope that the last few paragraphs answered that for you. I try to use a combination of experience (remembering teams with similar resumes and situations from previous years), computer ratings and my own personal viewpoint (i.e. Team A was embarrassed in their last game and should come out fired up in their next game).

As for UCLA, I have them where they are because I still think they're going to win the Pac-10 tournament. If they lose the Pac-10 tournament then they will drop further.

February 23, 2009 1:17 PM

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