Saturday, February 07, 2009

Huge Game For Gtown & Cincy

Cincinnati 64, Georgetown 62, OT
This game might have had more bubble implications than any other game played today. Both of these teams just really absolutely needed this game. Cincinnati was getting close to falling off the bubble altogether, but this win turns a lot of things around. They're now 6-5 in the Big East, and looking at their remaining schedule they have at least two more wins in the bag. I think they most likely will finish 9-9, which would probably keep them out of the Tournament, but it will be close. If they can get to 10-8 the computer numbers will be good enough that it's going to be hard to keep them out of the Tournament, especially if they win a game or two in the Big East tournament. Georgetown, meanwhile, is one of the real conundrums in college basketball right now. They have a very talented starting lineup, but they just aren't playing well as a team. If I had to guess what the problem is, I think it's that the older players are trying to be the leaders, and just are not good enough to carry a Tournament team. They need to get over their egos and get Greg Monroe the ball, because he is the one player talented enough to put this team on his back and take them to the Tournament. I think that JTIII figured this out a bit by basically benching Jessie Sapp for the entire second half, but his players didn't get the message and still only got Monroe 12 shots. They really need to run the ball through him every possession, especially since he's already such a good passer that defenses cannot completely collapse on him in the post. But they've got to figure this out soon, because Georgetown is now 4-7 in the Big East with an RPI that was once really good now falling to 37th. They have a good enough resume that they'll probably make the Tournament if they get to 8-10, but I just don't see a 7-11 team making the Tournament from any conference. And I don't see why four wins are a lock in their final nine games. It's definitely gut-check time for Georgetown.

#3 Duke 78, Miami (Fl) 75, OT
I was actually really disappointed in Duke's effort here. I said that I thought Coach K's motivational effort during and after the demolition by Clemson would have this team really fired up for Miami. Instead, they came out just like they played against Clemson, falling behind by 13 points by halftime. Coach K managed to get his kids fired up early in the second half, and they quickly grabbed the lead back, but they couldn't put Miami away. Even a motivated Duke team, coming off what was clearly a fired up Coach K halftime speech, fighting through the last few minutes of a game against a vastly inferior Miami team could not get any separation. It ended up being a three point lead in the final seconds, and a semi-miracle shot by a red hot Jack McClinton sent it to overtime. Duke finally survived by three points in overtime, but color me not at all impressed. They had better come out fired up for North Carolina, because if they play like this the Tar Heels will sweep the floor with them. For Miami, this was a huge missed opportunity. I spoke here about how Miami needed a split with Duke and North Carolina to be in the driver's seat for an at-large bid. If they lose to North Carolina next Sunday then it's going to be an uphill climb to a Tournament bid. They've got eight days to prepare for what is probably the most important game of their season thus far.

#16 Villanova 102, #20 Syracuse 85
Speaking of teams coming slow out of the gate, I've never seen Syracuse look worse this season than they did in the first half of this game. I could go on for paragraphs about their futility, but if there was one play that encompassed the entire half for me it was when Paul Harris missed a three as the first half was ending, and Kristof Ongenaet committed an over-the-back foul on the rebound 12 feet away from the basket with 0.1 seconds left in the half. That might have been the dumbest play I've seen this season that didn't involve Jamelle Horne. To Syracuse's credit, they finally came alive halfway through the second half, dropping a 21 point deficit to 11 before wearing out. But a loss is a loss, and Syracuse has now lost four of their last five games to fall to 6-5 in the Big East. Assuming they don't upset UConn on the road on Wednesday night they'll be 6-6 with some ground left to make up. With their great resume stats (wins over Florida, Kansas and Memphis, with a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100), they'd probably be a lock for the Tournament if they get to 9-9, but they'd be iffy at 8-10. They've got to get that ninth win. Villanova, on the other hand, is getting close to officially becoming a Tournament "lock." They are now 7-3 with a 9-4 record against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI that is up to 9th in the nation. If Villanova goes 2-6 to close the season they'd be a lock for the Tournament and they only have two games left against a team with a winning record in the Big East - and one of them is Providence, a team which almost definitely will not have a winning Big East record when they play. At this point, Villanova is just playing for Tournament seed.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

There were encouraging and discouraging aspects to the Duke game.

They did manage to come back and win after being down 16 points in the second half. Paulus played his best game of the season, and played like he deserved the start he got. Scheyer came out of slump a bit too. Dave McClure played one of his best games.

However, Singler had another horrible offensive performance. The troubling part of the comeback is that is was accomplished by going with 5 players exclusively. From the start of the comeback to the end of overtime, there were very few substitutions at all. Nolan Smith barely saw the floor in the game.

The UNC game will tell a lot. Coach K may have been figuring out an entirely different lineup to focus on for the rest of the season.

Jeff said...

Yeah, well I'm only willing to cut Duke slack until that UNC game. This had better be some big plan by Coach K focused on the Carolina game. Because if they come out flat and get rocked by the Tar Heels you're going to have to vastly lower your standards for the rest of this season.

Of course, if they come out and beat North Carolina (or at least play well and take the game down to the final moments) then all will be well.

Anonymous said...

Big plan? No. More like desperate times call for desperate measures. Singler, Smith, and Duke's depth seem to have vanished. If this is the result of illness (Singler was out a day last week and hasn't played like the same player since), then OK. If not, then Duke does have to revise their expectations downward.

OK, here's some heresy. The other big question about the upcoming game is whether Carolina is what everyone believes them to be. Are they the team that lost to BC and Wake, or are they their preseason hype? Everyone believes they have either fixed whatever issues they had, or maybe those two losses were just flukes. But I don't think that's so clear. Since then, they have won home games and beaten average and worse ACC teams on the road. They have also found out that they will not be getting back their only decent defender, and have lost yet another front court player for the season. Maybe they are a #1 seed worthy team. But this is only their second big test all year, and it's not certain they're not in better shape since losing the first one.

Jeff said...

I don't know how much heresy that is since the mainstream media has chosen to be more of a Big East hype machine than an ACC hype machine this season. I was honestly shocked yesterday to hear a Sportscenter anchor doing highlights saying how the Big East was unquestionably the best conference in the land... pretty interesting when they're ranked third in the RPI, Sagarin AND Pomeroy. Find me the ranking that puts the Big East #1 before you make the argument that they're the top conference, let alone unquestionably the best conference.

Anyway, rant over, I do think that North Carolina is closer to the preseason hype than those two losses. They have lost games because of a lack of concentration, and not a lack of skill. That said, they're also suffering right now from a lack of depth. Do you know if it's certain that Ginyard is lost for the year??

I also don't know what the final word is on Zeller. I know that Carolina fans want to rush him back if he's healthy enough, because they figure that he won't stick around for four years anyway so there's no point in the redshirt.

One really pleasant surprise has been Ed Davis off the bench. If they can get either Ginyard or Zeller back then they'll be the clear National Title favorite, in my opinion. But I admit that I haven't really been following all of the announcements that Carolina has been making... if Zeller, Ginyard AND Graves are gone for the season, then depth will definitely be a problem.

Coach K needs to turn up the tempo against North Carolina, because he might be able to just wear them out.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Ginyard is officially redshirting, and Graves has been suspended for the year. I haven't heard any news about Zeller lately.

Jeff said...

Yeah, I knew that Graves was suspended for the year. Thanks for the info on Ginyard, that was news to me.

I thought I heard that Zeller was going to meet with the University doctors and they'd make an announcement on Wednesday or Thursday? Did anybody else hear that?

North Carolina could really use him back. Even if he's gone for another month he could still be a major asset for their Tournament run.