Xavier Is Slipping

Charlotte 65, #17 Xavier 60
All of the chaos at the top of the Top 25 would have been a perfect opening for an under-the-radar Xavier team to make a run at a 1 seed. But suddenly they've forgotten how to play on the road. They actually played fairly well in this game (shooting percentages, turnovers and rebounds were all pretty much even between the two teams), and it was only a very clutch performance by Lamont Mack that was the difference. After scoring nothing in the first 32 minutes of the game, Mack scored all 12 of his points in the final eight. But this close loss does continue a trend, as it falls on the tail end of a stretch where they badly lost two road games to Dayton and Duquesne. The Selection Committee does care whether you can win away from home. I don't think there's much of a chance of Xavier falling all the way to the bubble, but their seed is plummeting by the week. If the season ended now they'd be something like a 6 seed.

#15 UCLA 85, #19 Washington 76
This win does not mean that everything is fixed for UCLA. After two straight bad road losses, it should have been obvious that they'd bounce back and take care of Washington at home. But even with this win, UCLA is still in a de facto four-way tie atop the Pac-10 with four losses. They have ruined any realistic chance they had at a 1 seed, and really have me doubting whether they are a realistic Final Four team. Their remaining schedule is pretty easy, so I would be shocked if they finish anything other than 14-4 or 13-5. That will earn them at least a share of the Pac-10 title, but they won't get a chance to impress the Selection Committee again until the Pac-10 tournament. As for Washington, they would have locked up a Tournament bid with a win here, but any win the rest of the way should do it. The Huskies have a fairly difficult the schedule the rest of the way, but have an excellent shot to end up with a share of the Pac-10 title.

Michigan 74, Minnesota 62
This was one of the more surprising results of the week. But the way Michigan plays, they can lose to anybody when they're not hitting their threes, but they can beat anybody when they are. It's why they have such a mix of glamor wins and weak losses. All in all, Michigan is still on the outside of the bubble looking in, with a difficult remaining schedule, but their resume is really getting fairly impressive. They are now 7-7 in the Big Ten with an 8-10 record against the RPI Top 100. They have an RPI of 48th and a Sagarin of 43rd. Michigan will have to get to at least 9-9, and then they'll need a solid performance in the Big Ten tournament. It can be done, but it's still a lower-than-50% chance. Minnesota, meanwhie, seemed to be a safe Tournament team just a few weeks ago, but four losses in their last five games have them back on the bubble. They are 7-7 in the Big Ten with a 6-7 record against the RPI Top 100, an RPI of 39th and a Sagarin of 38th. At first glance, they have a slightly better resume than Michigan, although not by much. But they've got an easier schedule remaining, and have a better chance at the 10-8 Big Ten record that would make them a likely Tournament team.