Wake Forest Bounces Back

#6 Wake Forest 93, Boston College 76
Things would have really started getting dicey in Winston-Salem if Wake Forest had lost again. They had lost two straight and three out of four coming into this one, and actually trailed for much of the first half before opening up a big lead about halfway through the second half. Jeff Teague led the way with 27 points and 8 assists as Wake Forest stays in the ACC regular season race at 5-3. With the carnage at the top of the ACC this season, it's possible that no team in the conference will make it to 13 wins, which means that Wake could earn a share of the title if they go 7-1 the rest of the way. It's not a high probability, but it's possible. Boston College drops to 6-4 and misses an opportunity for another huge victory. They are a very solid 9-5 against the RPI Top 100, but if they miss the Tournament it will be at least partially because of losses to Harvard and Saint Louis. The RPI is 49th, and Sagarin and Pomeroy think this is more like the 60th best team in the country. Still, they are 6-4 in what is probably the best conference in the country, and it's going to be tough to keep any 8-8 ACC team out of the Tournament. Boston College has a great opportunity over the next two weeks or so, with Duke, Clemson and Florida State all coming to town. If they can knock one of those teams off and then take care of business in the two games they'll be favored in (at NC State and at home versus Georgia Tech) then they'll probably get into the Tournament.

#25 Washington 75, Stanford 68
Washington stops the bleeding, avoiding what would have been their third loss in four games by earning a solid win at a reeling Stanford squad. I liked the fire I saw out of Washington in this game, and they're likely to be 10-3 when they head into Pauley Pavilion on the 19th to take their shot at UCLA. If they can pull the upset they'll have a great shot at the Pac-10 regular season title, but more likely they're going to spend the rest of this season battling Arizona State for second in the conference. They are now 8-3 in the Pac-10, with an 8-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and with great computer numbers. It's hard to see them missing the Tournament, and it's just a question now of how well they'll be seeded. Stanford, on the other hand, is barely even on the bubble anymore. They are 4-7 in the Pac-10, with only one win against the RPI Top 50 (a six point victory over Cal at home). The RPI has fallen out of the Top 75, and they're running out of time to make a Tournament run. Even if they finish the season 5-2 (an unlikelihood in and of itself), they'd still need at least a couple of wins in the Pac-10 tournament to earn an at-large. I just don't see it happening, honestly. You've got to wonder if Stanford fans are wondering "what if" as they watch the incredible success that Trent Johnson is having in just his first year at LSU.

Temple 68, Rhode Island 62
This was important match-up between two teams fighting for an at-large bid out of the Atlantic Ten. Xavier will be in the Tournament barring a complete collapse, and Dayton is the clear second placed team in the conference pecking order, but Temple and Rhode Island are in the battle for third. The conference will probably get two Tournaments teams, but three might be a stretch, so it's essential for both of these teams to get hot. Temple actually has the third best RPI in the conference (44th), but that's due to a very strong strength of schedule. The problem is, they haven't won a lot of those tough games, going only 1-4 against the RPI Top 100. They have that win over Tennessee, but they also have a few bad losses (Long Beach State, Buffalo, UMass). The fact is that it's tough for a team outside the BCS conferences to earn an at-large bid without a gaudy record, and even with the win today they are still only 13-9. They are currently 5-3 in the A-10, and will have to get to 11-5 to be in the at-large discussion on Selection Sunday. An 11-5 record plus a win in the A-10 tournament will get them to 20 wins, which is an important marker. I can't remember the last team outside a BCS conference that earned an at-large bid without 20 wins. Rhode Island has a nicer record (16-8), but they have done it against a weaker schedule. They only have one RPI Top 50 win, and it's Temple (they split the season series, with each team getting the home victory). They only have one bad loss (Richmond), but the overall computer numbers (neither the RPI, Sagarin or Pomeroy consider this a Top 60 team) are just too weak right now. That said, they do have the shiny record that Temple doesn't have, and could have a solid resume if they can get hot. In their remaining seven games they'll be solid favorites in five, and the other two (Dayton, at Duquesne) will be relative toss-ups. If they can find a way to win six of those seven games and then win a game in the A-10 tournament they'll be 11-5 in the A-10 with at least 23 wins. That sounds like a Tournament resume in a season that looks to have a weak bubble. But they've got to take care of business. Rhode Island's margin of error is rapidly shrinking.