How Will The Committee Judge Saint Mary's?

#21 Gonzaga 72, Saint Mary's 70
Gonzaga actually looked pretty good in this game, after looking atrocious for most of that Memphis game. They are actually starting to make the WCC look bad by continuing to beat up on everybody while struggling to beat the big boys out-of-conference. The boat has sailed on that 1 seed, but the Zags could still earn a 3 seed if they play well. If they win out, they even might be in the discussion for a 2 seed. Gonzaga should be in a good position to earn their first Elite Eight appearance of the century (yes, it's been that long). As for Saint Mary's, I was impressed at the way they took it to Gonzaga in this one. I expected them to try to slow this game and drag it out because of the absence of Patty Mills, but they actually tried to run with Gonzaga and managed to make a game out of it. But they're going to be a conundrum for the Selection Committee, because they were unquestionably a Tournament team with Mills (even better than they were last season), but they aren't looking like much of a Tournament team now. They're only 6-4 in the WCC, and 2-3 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI ranking is down to 72nd, and RPI and Pomeroy both see them in the 55-60 range. A lot of people are confused at how the Selection Committee deals with injuries to key players, and the reality is that they don't care about injuries. They judge teams on what they do, and don't take into account potential Tournament performance. The example I like to bring out is the 2000 Tournament, when Kenyon Martin was the consensus NCAA Player of the Year, but was injured for the season in the C-USA tournament. The Selection Committee still gave Cincy a 2 seed based on their performance, ignoring the fact that they clearly weren't one of the eight best teams in the nation without Martin. They promptly lost in the second round. So Saint Mary's has to win games, and they won't get a break because they had to play without Mills. They have a relatively easy final four regular season conference games, but they've got to win at least three of them unless they pull a big upset over Utah State in their Bracketbuster game. The WCC is looking more and more like a one-bid league.

#20 Illinois 60, Northwestern 59
This might have been the worst collapse I saw all season long. Northwestern was up by 14 points with just over five minutes to go before Illinois closed on a remarkable 17-2 run. Northwestern couldn't handle the press at all, and it also nearly felt like a road game for them. Illinois basketball travels well, especially within the state, and Northwestern struggles to fill the seats. One of the reasons that a good press can snowball on road teams is because the crowd gets behind it and makes the game feel even more frantic than it really is. This is something that home teams generally don't suffer from, but Northwestern did in this game. This is the best Northwestern team in years, but they're not going to make the Tournament because they just can't finish close games. They're still alive for an at-large bid if they can win a bunch of a games in a row, but it's not going to happen. Still, this is a talented young team and they should be even better next season. As for Illinois, they're getting close to locking up their own Tournament bid. They move to 8-4 in the Big Ten with an RPI of 13th. Sagarin also ranks them 13th. They've got a very tough schedule remaining, but they only need to go 3-3 to lock up that Tournament bid, regardless of their Big Ten tournament performance.

West Virginia 93, #13 Villanova 72
We've seen a lot of teams just roll over and die on random nights recently, from Duke to Wake Forest to Louisville. I don't really understand why we're seeing so much of this during this particular February. That said, I don't think this was one of those games, as Villanova didn't play as badly as you might think by just looking at the final score. West Virginia is a very good team that has a very good overall resume, but their one gap was the 5-6 Big East record that they entered this game with. They really needed this game, and they came out highly motivated. They looked very good in all aspects of this game. Meanwhile, Villanova was really killed by foul trouble, the most devastating loss being Dante Cunningham. Cunningham is the most important player on Villanova, and they really struggled when he missed the final 14 minutes of the first half with two fouls. In addition, Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds fouled out (Reynolds fouled out on a particularly dumb foul 35 feet from the basket with several minutes still remaining). Against a motivated West Virginia team, such a shorthanded Villanova team didn't have a chance. This damages, but doesn't end Villanova's chances at something like a 3 seed. They still have a very solid resume. As for West Virginia, having a respectable Big East record is the final piece of their at-large bid puzzle. As I've said before, they will almost definitely make the Tournament if they can only get to 9-9 in Big East play. At 6-6 with a relatively easy schedule ahead, I actually think they have a better shot at 10 wins than any other final record. West Virginia is looking good for a Tournament bid right now.