Kansas Finally Loses

#19 Missouri 62, #16 Kansas 60
After getting off to a very surprising 8-0 start to the Big 12 season, Kansas finally loses a game, but they certainly made it difficult on Missouri. The Tigers move to 8-2, but had to fight back from a 14 point second half deficit by applying their fierce full court press and finally wearing Kansas out. The reason for the Kansas success this year has been incredible poise for such a young team. They should be making silly mistakes all over the place, but they're not. And even against the ferocious Forty Minutes of Hell, Version 2.0, they managed to keep the turnovers down until things started to fall apart in the last few minutes. They ended up with 26 turnovers, but even that didn't seem like much when you consider the pace of the game. I was still impressed with the way Kansas played - even in defeat they looked like a solid Top 25 team. Both Kansas and Missouri will need some help to catch Oklahoma, and they can help each other. Kansas heads to Norman on the 23rd, while the Sooners head to Columbia on March 4th. Oklahoma is 9-0, and certainly seems like the clear best team in the Big 12, but they've got a pretty tough schedule to finish the season (including road games at Baylor and Texas, in addition to the two games already mentioned), so I'd expect them to lose a couple of games. More realistically, Kansas and Missouri should both be focused on slowly working their way up the bracket's "S-curve." Both teams have the ability to make a run at a 3, or even a 2 seed if they can get hot and finish the season on a roll.

#4 Pittsburgh 70, West Virginia 59
A nice solid home victory by Pittsburgh, even more so when you consider that DeJuan Blair only played 16 minutes with foul trouble. Of course, it helps when Da'Sean Butler and Alex Ruoff foul out themselves (a combined 42 minutes played between the two of them), but Pittsburgh won the way that they always win: efficient offense, and domination on the boards. Without Blair, probably the best offensive rebounder in the nation, the Panthers still got solid performances from their other bigs. Pittsburgh continues to slowly move back up the Big East standings, and they're now tied for third place at 9-2. They still have a home-and-home coming up with UConn, which could potentially determine their final Tournament seeding. A sweep over the Huskies would definitely put Pitt in the driver's seat for a 1 seed. A sweep for the Huskies and Pitt's 1 seed chances are probably over. West Virginia continues to have solid numbers (16-8, 5-4 in true road games, 9-8 against the RPI Top 100, RPI of 17th, Sagarin of 17th and Pomeroy of 8th), but the one concern is that 5-6 Big East record. I think an 8-10 West Virginia team would still have a good shot at the Tournament if they have a respectable Big East tournament performance, but it's hard to imagine a 7-11 team from any conference making the Tournament. West Virginia really needs to get to 9-9 to feel good about a Tournament bid. I actually see 9-9 as their most likely finish, so they should make the Tournament but they don't have a huge margin of error.

#9 Michigan State 54, Michigan 42
Michigan State continues to chug along without being at full strength, knowing that they should beat any Big Ten team when they're playing well. Their two losses have happened against vastly inferior opponents, when they simply did not show up to play. It's important that they continue to grind these wins out, because I can't imagine them being able to lose more than one game the rest of the way while still earning a 1 seed. Michigan, on the other hand, continues to suffer from a lack of a sidekick for Manny Harris. Teams with lock down defenders have been able to clamp down on Harris, and Michigan has not proved that they have the ability to score consistently with their other players. The Wolverines have now slipped to 5-7 in the Big Ten with an RPI that has fallen out of the Top 50. If the season ended now they would not be in the Tournament, which means that their upcoming stretch is crucial. They end their regular season with three very tough games (Purdue, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota). They will not make the Tournament unless they get to 9-9, so they've got to win their next three games (at Northwestern, Minnesota, at Iowa) and then steal one of the final three. I really think that's their only path to the Tournament, because it's hard to see an 8-10 Michigan team making the Tournament unless they win two or three games in the Big Ten tournament and get a lot of help around the nation (teams like Davidson and Butler winning their conference tournaments, et cetera).