Sunday, February 01, 2009

W-6 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. Duke
2. Pittsburgh
2. UCLA (PAC-10)
2. Wake Forest

3. Louisville
3. Marquette
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Texas

4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
4. Clemson
4. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
4. TENNESSEE (SEC)

5. Arizona State
5. Syracuse
5. Illinois
5. Kansas

6. Purdue
6. West Virginia
6. Florida
6. BYU (MWC)

7. Washington
7. Minnesota
7. Dayton
7. Villanova

8. Florida State
8. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
8. Baylor
8. California

9. UNLV
9. Georgetown
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)
9. Missouri

10. Miami (Fl)
10. Kentucky
10. USC
10. Texas A&M

11. Ohio State
11. UTAH STATE (WAC)
11. Boston College
11. Saint Mary's

12. Wisconsin
12. LSU
12. CREIGHTON (MVC)
12. Oklahoma State

13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)

16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Maryland, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Providence, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Utah, Arizona, South Carolina

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's, Michigan, Kansas State, Nebraska, Northeastern, UAB, Stanford, Arkansas, Mississippi

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
NC State, Duquesne, Temple, Iowa, George Mason, Central Florida, Tulsa, Niagara, Bradley, Evansville, New Mexico, TCU, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Portland, Boise State, Nevada

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, La Salle, Richmond, Saint Louis, DePaul, Rutgers, St. John's, Seton Hall, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Drexel, Hofstra, James Madison, Houston, Southern Miss, UTEP, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-GB, Fairfield, Buffalo, Drake, Wyoming, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas-LR
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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do you really think UTAH STATE will get an 11? Please look at their RPI and SoS,? Creighton a 12-how do you put those two teams ahead of Siena ( RPI 21)

February 01, 2009 6:34 AM
Jeff said...

You have to realize that the RPI is just not that important, because it has some quirks that can deceive fans of teams. Look at the better computer rankings: Pomeroy puts both Utah State and Creighton well ahead of Siena. Sagarin has Creighton and Siena even, with Utah State ahead of both of them.

The fact is that Siena is 0-4 against the RPI Top 65. They've proven that they're a dangerous team, but they haven't been able to beat any good teams.


Siena might manage to get an 11 or a 12 seed if they can go undefeated the rest of the way, but I don't think they will. I think Iona exposed them the other night, and I think Siena will lose one more time.

Always remember that with teams like Siena, you cannot take their RPI and divide by four. Utah has an RPI of 14... you think they deserve a 4 seed?

February 01, 2009 11:17 AM
Anonymous said...

Jeff-
Although in terms of actual strength you're using better measures, but remember that the tool the committee has to work with is the RPI. Whether they utilize some of the better tools depends on the skill of the selection committee members, which has really been fairly poor lately. The selection committee has become a prestigious assignment, and I don't think they've been selecting for basketball knowledge the last few years.

Regardless, the committee will see the nice, shiny XX-1 record and will give Utah State a pretty good seed.

February 01, 2009 2:38 PM
Jeff said...

Actually, for all the grief that the Selection Committee gets, they follow the Sagarin ratings more than the RPI. We routinely see teams with RPIs of 55 getting at-large bids and with RPIs of 20 or 25 getting left out. But you never see a team with a Sagarin rating of 55 getting in, and you never see a team with a Sagarin of 25 missing.

So if you want to look at only one computer measure to determine whether your team will get in and what seed they'll get, the Sagarin is better than the RPI, even taking into account the flaws in the Selection Committee. Siena is currently 58th in Sagarin, Creighton is 73rd (but with a much better strength of schedule ahead of them) and Utah State is 34th. This is part of why I seeded them where I did.

I do think that if Utah State ends up 30-1 that they'll get an artificially inflated seed by Committee members who will be awed by the shiny record, but I think they'll lose a game or two. The WAC isn't as bad as people think, and Utah State has had a ton of close wins.

Fresno took them to overtime late last night (I had to stay up until after the USC/Cal game to do the BP65, so I was tracking the Utah State game on the ESPN gamecast). Of their nine conference games, six of them have been decided by 11 points are less. They still have their two toughest regular season games ahead of them (at Boise and at Nevada). Sagarin gives the man ELO_CHESS of 23rd but a PREDICTOR of 46th, so they're due to go back to the mean a bit.

I think Utah State's most likely final record is 29-3 or 28-4, and that's why I'm only getting them an 11 seed right now. I will have to re-evaluate if they keep pulling out these close games and end up getting to 30 wins.

February 01, 2009 3:31 PM
Anonymous said...

That's good news about he committee following the Sagarin ratings; I hope you're right.

I think the Michigan State pick for #1 seed is already dated, unfortunately. I thought it was a reach (although possible) before, but the Penn State loss makes it even more unlikely.

They are projected to finish the conference regular season with 4 or 5 losses (current record is 7-2, with away games at Purdue and Illinois still to come). Their Pomeroy ranking is 21st, so I don't see how they end up with an impressive enough resume to get a #1 seed.

I would have to think that whoever finishes the strongest out of Duke, Pittsburgh & Louisville gets that fourth #1 seed.

Louisville has to play UConn and Marquette at home, and West Virginia on the road. Pittsburgh has to play West Virginia at home, UConn home and away, and Marquette at home. Duke has to play at Clemson, Wake at home, and home and away with UNC.

The schedule favors Louisville to be the fourth #1 seed.

February 01, 2009 11:02 PM
Jeff said...

Well I've been pretty torn about that fourth 1 seed, because I will agree with you that Michigan State probably won't get it... but it's arguable that they still have the highest probability of any other team.

The way I see it (and you probably agree): the ACC and Big East each have one spot locked up. Oklahoma will get the third top seed unless they struggle down the stretch. That fourth seed then could go to Michigan State, or UCLA, or Duke, Wake Forest, Pitt, Louisville or Marquette. Heck, you can even through in a team like Xavier in the conversation.

I might end up dropping Michigan State to a 2 seed next week, although it's going to depend on what the other top teams do. For example, it's very important for Louisville to beat UConn tomorrow if they want to be taken seriously for a top seed.

February 01, 2009 11:12 PM

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