#10 Clemson 74, #3 Duke 47
I don't know what happened, but Duke just didn't seem to want to play in this game. Clemson bulldozed them. The silver lining for Duke fans has to be that Coach K will definitely use this game as a motivator. He actually called timeout with about 30 seconds left in the game so that his kids could hear the crowd taunting. This is actually bad news for Miami, Duke's next opponent, because it's hard to imagine Duke not coming out and absolutely running them off the floor after this disaster. Duke slips to 6-2 in the ACC, and a tie for first with North Carolina. It's possible that both teams will earn a 1 seed, but it's more likely that one of them will get a 2 seed, so their head-to-head battles will be very important. Clemson, of course, is still a long shot 1 seed candidate themselves. They are now 5-2 with a very impressive 6-2 record against the RPI Top 50. They are done with Duke and North Carolina for the season, so they've got a great shot at earning a share of the ACC regular season title. If they can earn a share of the title, and then win the conference tournament, then they've got a real shot at a top seed.
Missouri 69, #17 Texas 65
Missouri might start getting some national respect with this big upset in Austin. They are now 6-2 in the Big 12 with an RPI of 26th. Sagarin puts them 15th and Pomeroy actually puts them 10th in the nation. Still, this was the first real marquee win, and if they can avoid an upset at the hands of Iowa State this weekend they'll move into both Top 25 polls for the first time this season. As for Texas, this loss probably puts to bed any hopes of a 1 seed. At 4-3 in the Big 12, not only are they currently only fourth in the Big 12 pecking order, but they might actually be a bubble team. They are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100, with all of their computer rankings sitting around 30th, so they'd sneak into the Tournament if the season ended now, but not with much room to spare. They'll probably make the Tournament if they get to 9-7, but they need to make it to 10-6 to completely lock themselves in.
#14 Michigan State 76, #19 Minnesota 47
This game wasn't even as close as the final score might suggest. Michigan State got off to a 39-12 early lead, and ballooned the lead as large as 35 points before they cruised in for the final ten minutes or so. I never thought Minnesota had much of a shot against an angry Spartans team that was coming off an embarrassing loss to Penn State, but I was still surprised by the margin of victory. If they continue to play like this and get on a winning streak, Michigan State can still make a run at a 1 seed, but they're more likely to finish with a 2 seed. Despite the loss, Minnesota's resume still looks pretty good. They're 6-4 in the Big Ten, 7-4 against the RPI Top 100, and 17-4 overall. They have an RPI of 24th, and Sagarin puts them 31st. Still, their remaining schedule is pretty rough. Also, they're probably not as good as their record, as both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR believe that they're only around 50th in the nation. They'll be a near-lock for the Tournament if they get to 10-8, but that's not going to be easy with their remaining schedule. I think Tubby will get his kids to the Tournament, but I think the Gophers were a bit over-ranked at 19th in the nation.
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2 comments:
As a Duke fan, this was the ugliest game I've seen in a long time. I really have to wonder if something was wrong with Kyle Singler. I watched him shoot two straight free throws that hit the bottom front of the rim and bounced downward. Did his girlfriend dump him for a Carolina player or what?
About this time of year, you hear all the Duke haters talk about how Duke always chokes at this time of the year, that they get worn out by not having a big man, blah blah blah. I suspect that the real issue here is that Duke doesn't run a very good offense, and they don't improve on offense very much throughout the season. At this point in the season the defenses they face have improved, and they start to have trouble scoring.
On the flip side, Clemson is in a great position to win the conference. They have to play at BC, FSU & Wake, but that's a lot easier than the other contenders in the conference. I think the question is if Trevor Booker is really that much of a beast, or if Duke just made him look good.
I don't think there's reason to get too much from that game. Obviously it was a fluke. If Duke or Clemson ever play like that again this season, then we can talk about it.
I'm not sure where the idea is that Duke struggles late in the season when they had, what, nine straight trips to the Sweet 16? I think the streak goes from the VCU upset all the way back to the year after Coach K missed half the season due to a back injury. Clearly they do well late in seasons...
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