The Big Ten Is Becoming A Mess

#21 Illinois 66, #13 Purdue 48
A nice bounce back win for Illinois, although this loss also has to be a worry for Purdue. In the Big Ten, Purdue is now 6-1 when Robbie Hummel plays, and 0-3 when he does not. He does not have a great national profile, and I would bet that most casual fans from other conferences have never even heard of him, but he is such a crucial piece for Purdue. The news now is that Hummel won't be completely healthy all season, and he might end up just resting it a bit to try to be as healthy as possible for the stretch run. With a healthy Hummel, Purdue would have been the main challenger for Michigan State in the Big Ten. Without Hummel, they're a bubble team. They are still 8-6 against the RPI Top 100 with solid computer numbers (the RPI is now 35th), so they'd be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but they've got some work left to do to wrap up that Tournament bid. They have a couple of decent out-of-conference wins (Davidson, Boston College), so they can probably wrap up a Tournament bid if they go 10-8. But going 4-4 the rest of the way is not a given unless Hummel can play. With Hummel not playing, Illinois is now probably the second best team in the Big Ten. This win pushes them to 7-4 and into a tie for second place with Ohio State. The RPI is 15th, and the other computer rankings are nearby, so Illinois is in position for a good Tournament seed. With a home game remaining against Michigan State, they can potentially make a run at a share of the Big Ten regular season title. But even without that, I think a 4 or a 5 seed is very much a possibility for this squad.

Wisconsin 54, Penn State 44
The Big Ten standings continue to become a logjam in the middle with this result. This game was about as ugly as the final score might suggest, with both teams shooting poorly. The defenses were good, and the refs were uncharacteristically lenient (one of the running subplots this Big Ten season has been jittery refs calling every tiny bump a foul after a couple of nasty collisions early on), but that alone doesn't explain why the shooting was so bad. The two teams combined for 3-for-28 shooting from behind the arc, and a deceptive 40% shooting (a lot of dunks and layups). Both teams really ground this game out, and that ended up benefiting a Wisconsin team that is older are more poised when it comes to creating shots late in the shot clock. Wisconsin now wins their second straight after a terrible stretch of heartbreaking losses. They are now 5-6 with solid computer numbers (the RPI, Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings will all put them around 35th in the nation when the numbers come out tomorrow morning). With their strong strength of schedule, I think that a 9-9 Big Ten record will probably get them to the Tournament if they can win at least one Big Ten tournament game. Looking at their remaining schedule, I think they'll get there. But they've got to get to 10 wins to really feel good about their chances. Penn State may be 6-5, but they're heading in the wrong direction. I think they're starting to wear out, as they don't seem to be as quick or as energetic as they were a few weeks ago. Playing near the top of the Big Ten is really grueling, and it's something that Penn State is not used to. They're obviously still on the bubble, but they've got to get on a winning streak. A 9-9 Penn State team almost definitely will not make the Tournament.

Creighton 77, Northern Iowa 71
A huge battle in the Missouri Valley that somewhat justifies the fact that I've been sticking with Creighton as my favorite to take the conference. Northern Iowa has tremendous defense, but they don't have a lot of offensive firepower. Adam Koch has emerged as arguably their best player, but he's not nearly the go-to guy that Creighton has in players like P'Allen Stinnett. Creighton also showed that they have good defense as well, holding Northern Iowa to 29% shooting from the field here. If the Panthers hadn't gone 30-for-32 from the line, this game wouldn't even have been close. This game opens the top of this conference back up, as Northern Iowa would have essentially wrapped the regular season title up with a win here. Now their lead over Creighton is down to two games, and Illinois State is in the discussion as well. Northern Iowa is now 4-3 against the RPI Top 100 (their best win is at Creighton) with an RPI of 82nd. Creighton is 5-3 against the RPI Top 100 (their best win is Dayton) with an RPI of 64th. Creighton probably has the best resume of any Missouri Valley team, but they still probably wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended now. The Valley will most likely be a one-bid league this season.